NYCSuburbs Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 ECM looks even hotter... 594 dm ridge builds overhead for the first time this year, H85 temps exceed 20C and there's no BDCF to block the heat. Wunderground free maps show widespread 90s on Wednesday and don't even get up to Thursday. We've already seen how most of these heat potentials ended up but I have little doubt that at least a brief surge of heat would end up moving through the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 What are you referring to? The age he likes his girls? haha....probably 15 above normal im guessing on the maos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 ECM looks even hotter... 594 dm ridge builds overhead for the first time this year, H85 temps exceed 20C and there's no BDCF to block the heat. Wunderground free maps show widespread 90s on Wednesday and don't even get up to Thursday. We've already seen how most of these heat potentials ended up but I have little doubt that at least a brief surge of heat would end up moving through the region. that map argues for temps near 100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 I think the 594dm heat dome on the Euro op, is extreme. Especially with the trough/cut-off low lingering of the Mid-Atantic coast, next week. But I think there is pretty good signal from the Euro ensembles for some big heat, for at least one or two days ahead of the next trough/cold front. 20C+ 850mb temps into North-Central NJ, next Thursday: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 14, 2012 Author Share Posted June 14, 2012 Yesterday's stats: NYC: 69/64 (-4) LGA: 71/65 (-4) JFK: 69/65 (-3) EWR: 73/65 (-3) Monthly through yesterday: NYC: -1.9 LGA: -.9 JFK: -1.0 EWR: -1.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 14, 2012 Author Share Posted June 14, 2012 Yesterday's stats: NYC: 69/64 (-4) LGA: 71/65 (-4) JFK: 69/65 (-3) EWR: 73/65 (-3) Monthly through yesterday: NYC: -1.9 LGA: -.9 JFK: -1.0 EWR: -1.8 With the 3-4 day heat presumably coming next week, the negative departures will get wiped out very quickly and June will most likely still end up above average, depsite the 1st 20 days being below average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 The european op run from last night, verbatim, has 100s on Thursday in DC, upper 90s TTN/Philly (with the pattern on the model implying 95+ in Newark)... probably overdone a bit, i think mid 90s in DC/PHL for now and low 90s in NYC proper look good at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 14, 2012 Author Share Posted June 14, 2012 Being that the euro ridge is in the day 6-8 period, the next few runs can easily slowly take away any big heat. The GFS and its ensembles are warm, but no where near as warm as the euro is. GFS confines the real heat to the midwest and keeps the east coast a little above average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeatMiser Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 yeah, the 15+ was referencing the euro op, which is downright brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 Being that the euro ridge is in the day 6-8 period, the next few runs can easily slowly take away any big heat. The GFS and its ensembles are warm, but no where near as warm as the euro is. GFS confines the real heat to the midwest and keeps the east coast a little above average. That first point is certainly true (and we know what happened with the recent heat episode when onshore flow came back within 5 days) but I'm much more confident about this heat reaching. Furthermore, while the 00z gfs/gefs was not as warm as the Euro, it was still very warm and suggesting 90s for the end of next week in the area...6z gefs also came in a bit warmer and more established with the ridge on the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 14, 2012 Author Share Posted June 14, 2012 The GFS brings mid 90's to the Lower Hudson Valley on the OP run last night. Sorry. I was looking at 6z run. 90 degrees is for Thursday of next week and verbatim for inland areas. Before and after looks normal to slightly above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 So would this be a 1-2 day type surge or more sustained? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 14, 2012 Author Share Posted June 14, 2012 That first point is certainly true (and we know what happened with the recent heat episode when onshore flow came back within 5 days) but I'm much more confident about this heat reaching. Furthermore, while the 00z gfs/gefs was not as warm as the Euro, it was still very warm and suggesting 90s for the end of next week in the area...6z gefs also came in a bit warmer and more established with the ridge on the east coast. I agree that its likely we achieve 2-3 days of 90+ degrees. The 6z GFS and GEFS keeps it short, 1-2 days and then back to normal. Euro sustains the heat for a couple more days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 Some more clouds nosing WSW from LI and will be over the area for a bit the next hour or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 Sorry. I was looking at 6z run. 90 degrees is for Thursday of next week and verbatim for inland areas. Before and after looks normal to slightly above normal. No problem. I like using the Euro ensemble mean for temperatures past 120 hrs just to be on the conservative side. I think that the OP GFS is holding onto more of a southerly component to the winds than the Euro ensembles do. The Euro ensemble implies more of a SW flow so places like EWR would see a 95 degree or higher day should that verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 I agree that its likely we achieve 2-3 days of 90+ degrees. The 6z GFS and GEFS keeps it short, 1-2 days and then back to normal. Euro sustains the heat for a couple more days. I mean this was never going to be a long heat event regardless of what model you look at, particularly talking NYC proper...it looks like 1-2 days of 90 potential aimed at Thursday..friday is a little rough with the timing of the cold front being quicker on the gfs while Wed looks like it could be more like upper 80s to me until you move west/sw of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 I agree that its likely we achieve 2-3 days of 90+ degrees. The 6z GFS and GEFS keeps it short, 1-2 days and then back to normal. Euro sustains the heat for a couple more days. Its been a fairly consistent signal for the period mid/late next week. Interestingly guidance seems to be coming in with a warmer look as we nudge closer which was the opposite of the 6/10 period and fathers day weekend heat singnals , which faded into the onshore mess we had this past week. We'll see and Ive been burned (or should i say iced) before this month, but I agree its looking more like a few days of heat 6/20 - 6/22. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 I mean this was never going to be a long heat event regardless of what model you look at, particularly talking NYC proper...it looks like 1-2 days of 90 potential aimed at Thursday..friday is a little rough with the timing of the cold front being quicker on the gfs while Wed looks like it could be more like upper 80s to me until you move west/sw of the city. Agree and I think we're going to be hard-pressed to get more than 2-3 day 90F+ spells this entire summer. It should be one of those years where the heat's home base is in the Southern Plains/Rockies, and occasionally balloons northeastward into the Northeast for a few days prior to the next fropa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 Some more clouds nosing WSW from LI and will be over the area for a bit the next hour or two. Yeah skies were mostly clear an hour ago, but now back to mostly cloudy. Looks like another day where clouds may dominate, at least SE of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 Agree and I think we're going to be hard-pressed to get more than 2-3 day 90F+ spells this entire summer. It should be one of those years where the heat's home base is in the Southern Plains/Rockies, and occasionally balloons northeastward into the Northeast for a few days prior to the next fropa. Generally agree with this as well. Hopefully we can get an EML or 2 to balloon over ahead of these fronts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 14, 2012 Author Share Posted June 14, 2012 NE winds are stronger then expected right now. Models had around 10mph winds and right now all the LI sound buoys and LGA are reading 15mph to 25mph. With water temps being only around 64-68 degrees, today might come in cooler then expected. Especially with the clouds backing into the area right now. Last night while fishing in the western LI sound I was reading only 62-64 degrees on the incoming tide from Kings Point to Hempstead Harbor. Outgoing tides always are a couple degrees warmer due to the water heating up during the 1-2 hours of slack tide; especially in the back bay areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 This morning was cool, dry and beautiful. Too bad clouds had to ruin the sunshine but otherwise a winner is still in store today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 The Euro ensembles have been showing the signal for a surge of heat in this time period for a few days now. I would have to say its got some merit to it, now that we're seeing more robust vales even on a smoothed ensemble mean. The OP Euro verbatim might be a little extreme, but would be awesome for sure (if you like heat and mid-summer weather). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 GFS is really hanging on to that cutoff in the western Atlantic and not quite allowing the warmest air push eastward like the Euro, but it's still pretty warm.. won't complain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 GFS is really hanging on to that cutoff in the western Atlantic and not quite allowing the warmest air push eastward like the Euro, but it's still pretty warm.. won't complain. playing Oronoque on Tuesday......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 playing Oronoque on Tuesday......... cool. I made my way into the state of Connecticut for the first time in a long time last weekend. Went to this strawberry picking farm up in Shelton.. was nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 cool. I made my way into the state of Connecticut for the first time in a long time last weekend. Went to this strawberry picking farm up in Shelton.. was nice. cool, next time we hit the links and scream at AG3 from across the sound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 GFS is really hanging on to that cutoff in the western Atlantic and not quite allowing the warmest air push eastward like the Euro, but it's still pretty warm.. won't complain. That's been happening all year so I wouldn't totally ignore it, either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 GFS is really hanging on to that cutoff in the western Atlantic and not quite allowing the warmest air push eastward like the Euro, but it's still pretty warm.. won't complain. We still get into w sfc flow by wed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 We still get into w sfc flow by wed And it's warmer than the last sounding run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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