Cfa Posted June 12, 2012 Share Posted June 12, 2012 At least the forecast looks nice, after the rain that is. I've had it with these clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 12, 2012 Share Posted June 12, 2012 Raining here....going to wait until after lunch to call day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 12, 2012 Author Share Posted June 12, 2012 Raining here....going to wait until after lunch to call day Looking at radar, call it over. Solid rain shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted June 12, 2012 Share Posted June 12, 2012 Dr. Maue: June month to date global temps are 0.000C above/below normal according to NCEP CFSv2 (reanalysis) ... that's a wash https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/212322353810636801/photo/1 Joe B: Reminder: NCEP GLOBAL temp still below normal for year https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/212536525160853505/photo/1 Dr. Maue: From NCEP ensembles (20-members) through June 28, less than half have NYC making it to 90F at least once. Max temps: https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/212550269882466305/photo/1 Joe B: 3 month CFS daily shot from last night shows July-Sep to be pretty cool. Think its on to something, tho overdone https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/212494424280801280/photo/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted June 12, 2012 Share Posted June 12, 2012 Light rain has commenced under the triborough bridge....feels like early april outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 12, 2012 Share Posted June 12, 2012 500mb heights going forward through the next couple weeks should be above normal in the Eastern US. It's just a matter of getting surface high pressure in a favorable position to pump the warmth to the coast. Most of the OH Valley, interior Northeast, and Lakes, should have no problem achieving above normal readings from this weekend into next week. However, the northeasterly flow means I-95 will be looking at temps closer to normal, 77-82, which frankly is beautiful for this time of year (I won't complain about that). PNA is turning negative in the medium range which means we're looking at more PAC NW troughing, and the ewd propagation of that H5 mid level ridge, depicted on both the ECMWF and GFS. If the following verifies, this is the type of regime where we shift the position of sfc high pressure to a more conducive one for SLY/SWLY flow into the coastal Northeast. Through this weekend, we've got the heat ridge centered in the Plains/MS Valley, and that leaves weakness on the East Coast for some maritime influence. But given above normal SST's, I don't think it's a cooler than normal pattern for Day 2-5. Next week I think we'll finally begin seeing more consistent 80s for highs. With all that being said, this is the summer pattern that's evolving IMO. One with the core of the heat in the Plains/West, occasional bursts to the East. But I think the trough will settle into the Northeast for July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 12, 2012 Share Posted June 12, 2012 Dr. Maue: June month to date global temps are 0.000C above/below normal according to NCEP CFSv2 (reanalysis) ... that's a wash pic.twitter.com/mueWlZcE Joe B: Reminder: NCEP GLOBAL temp still below normal for year pic.twitter.com/f3ek8vPt Dr. Maue: From NCEP ensembles (20-members) through June 28, less than half have NYC making it to 90F at least once. Max temps: pic.twitter.com/LF4bx6cW Joe B: 3 month CFS daily shot from last night shows July-Sep to be pretty cool. Think its on to something, tho overdone pic.twitter.com/qcgnMVwF Climate change stopped! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 12, 2012 Share Posted June 12, 2012 Looking at radar, call it over. Solid rain shield. And its over...no full day..i thought i would get it in...oh well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 12, 2012 Share Posted June 12, 2012 And its over...no full day..i thought i would get it in...oh well rain definitely coming in earlier than progged.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 12, 2012 Share Posted June 12, 2012 rain definitely coming in earlier than progged.... Yepper...pouring on gsp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted June 12, 2012 Share Posted June 12, 2012 break from what? 2009 was not that long ago and quite frankly last summer after the mega heat was pretty poor in August July was one of the worst. We saw it differently because we don't feel the same about heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 12, 2012 Author Share Posted June 12, 2012 rain definitely coming in earlier than progged.... Not really. Euro, GFS and NAM had light rain breaking out in late morning and towards noon. It might be 1-2 hours faster then the NAM had it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 12, 2012 Share Posted June 12, 2012 Not really. Euro, GFS and NAM had light rain breaking out in late morning and towards noon. It might be 1-2 hours faster then the NAM had it. just going by what Upton had--they had a 5pm start here, we're raining now....no big deal in the general scheme of things Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted June 12, 2012 Share Posted June 12, 2012 Raining here....going to wait until after lunch to call day made it until noon today, cut the last two in the rain optimistic about tomorrow, forecasters here seem to think rain ends by daybreak so maybe a bit damp to start but generally rain free tomorrow IMBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted June 12, 2012 Share Posted June 12, 2012 The rain really is nothing impressive. I thought this had potential to produce some very heavy rainfall bands with the tropical atmosphere predicted on some of the soundings from yesterday. in the end though i guess we don't have enough lift/cape to help wring the moisture out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted June 12, 2012 Share Posted June 12, 2012 As far as the longer range goes, some pretty drastic cool downs on the 12z models today for day 8-15 across the Midwest/East coast...Cant seem to shake the blocking/-nao... With that being said, we should be able to get some good heat all the way to the mid-Atlantic/Northeast coast me thinks for wed-Fri timeframe next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 12, 2012 Share Posted June 12, 2012 As far as the longer range goes, some pretty drastic cool downs on the 12z models today for day 8-15 across the Midwest/East coast...Cant seem to shake the blocking/-nao... With that being said, we should be able to get some good heat all the way to the mid-Atlantic/Northeast coast me thinks for wed-Fri timeframe next week. that big vortex is going to force heat eastward before we cool down again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted June 12, 2012 Share Posted June 12, 2012 As far as the longer range goes, some pretty drastic cool downs on the 12z models today for day 8-15 across the Midwest/East coast...Cant seem to shake the blocking/-nao... With that being said, we should be able to get some good heat all the way to the mid-Atlantic/Northeast coast me thinks for wed-Fri timeframe next week. It's amazing how we have this now, but during last winter we could not get it to last for more than a week at most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted June 12, 2012 Share Posted June 12, 2012 that big vortex is going to force heat eastward before we cool down again Exactly, even on the 00z runs when that vortex wasnt nearly as deep in the central U.S. days 7-10, it still was showing a good burst of heat for the area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 12, 2012 Share Posted June 12, 2012 Exactly, even on the 00z runs when that vortex wasnt nearly as deep in the central U.S. days 7-10, it still was showing a good burst of heat for the area... hopefully enough mid level flow for tstorms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 12, 2012 Share Posted June 12, 2012 Exactly, even on the 00z runs when that vortex wasnt nearly as deep in the central U.S. days 7-10, it still was showing a good burst of heat for the area... the gfes is stronger than the op with that vortex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 12, 2012 Share Posted June 12, 2012 US Temp departures since the NAO went negative in late May...I'm not impressed. The Canadian 10 day temp anomaly forecast depicts quite a wide expansive of positives coming up. This should translate SE to the coastal Northeast in a moderated fashion next week. Point is, I think the negative anomalies across the Eastern US should continue to erode and then reverse by the end of June. Blocking is lessening, and increased troughing in the nern plains/NW US will help orient sfc high pressure more favorably for East coast warmth June 20th-30th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 12, 2012 Share Posted June 12, 2012 .25 here so far... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted June 12, 2012 Share Posted June 12, 2012 500mb heights going forward through the next couple weeks should be above normal in the Eastern US. It's just a matter of getting surface high pressure in a favorable position to pump the warmth to the coast. Most of the OH Valley, interior Northeast, and Lakes, should have no problem achieving above normal readings from this weekend into next week. However, the northeasterly flow means I-95 will be looking at temps closer to normal, 77-82, which frankly is beautiful for this time of year (I won't complain about that). PNA is turning negative in the medium range which means we're looking at more PAC NW troughing, and the ewd propagation of that H5 mid level ridge, depicted on both the ECMWF and GFS. If the following verifies, this is the type of regime where we shift the position of sfc high pressure to a more conducive one for SLY/SWLY flow into the coastal Northeast. Through this weekend, we've got the heat ridge centered in the Plains/MS Valley, and that leaves weakness on the East Coast for some maritime influence. But given above normal SST's, I don't think it's a cooler than normal pattern for Day 2-5. Next week I think we'll finally begin seeing more consistent 80s for highs. With all that being said, this is the summer pattern that's evolving IMO. One with the core of the heat in the Plains/West, occasional bursts to the East. But I think the trough will settle into the Northeast for July. Agreed regarding the pattern, since about mid May most of the heat has been focused over the central US, and with occasional influence from back door cold front/offshore lows, the heat is directed north into Canada while the East continues to see temperatures near to occasionally below average. The late May heat spell was the only time during the recent pattern that heat affected the region without being forced to the north, as almost any heat potential that showed up, including the one for the weekend/early next week, ends up being replaced by a less than ideal high pressure placement with back door cold front influence in some cases. In some ways, it's the opposite of last winter when we were waiting for the cold to come but it was relatively weak, quick moving, and was replaced by more warmth, although there's no negative departures with the current pattern to the extent of the winter's positive departures. While there are more signals for the NW troughing with the -PNA developing after the upcoming temporary +PNA spike, which would possibly support some more heat towards the end of June, I doubt that we end up with any pattern that locks the core of the heat further east closer to the area. Probably some occasional surges of 80s to possibly some 90s, but no sustained heat for the rest of the month. It will be interesting to see how any heat potential for the last 10 days of the month unfolds, as the rest of the month will determine the difference between another slightly warmer than average month and the first cooler than average month since the winter of 2010-11. My guess at this time is that the month will end up on the positive side but not by much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 12, 2012 Share Posted June 12, 2012 Agreed regarding the pattern, since about mid May most of the heat has been focused over the central US, and with occasional influence from back door cold front/offshore lows, the heat is directed north into Canada while the East continues to see temperatures near to occasionally below average. The late May heat spell was the only time during the recent pattern that heat affected the region without being forced to the north, as almost any heat potential that showed up, including the one for the weekend/early next week, ends up being replaced by a less than ideal high pressure placement with back door cold front influence in some cases. In some ways, it's the opposite of last winter when we were waiting for the cold to come but it was relatively weak, quick moving, and was replaced by more warmth, although there's no negative departures with the current pattern to the extent of the winter's positive departures. While there are more signals for the NW troughing with the -PNA developing after the upcoming temporary +PNA spike, which would possibly support some more heat towards the end of June, I doubt that we end up with any pattern that locks the core of the heat further east closer to the area. Probably some occasional surges of 80s to possibly some 90s, but no sustained heat for the rest of the month. It will be interesting to see how any heat potential for the last 10 days of the month unfolds, as the rest of the month will determine the difference between another slightly warmer than average month and the first cooler than average month since the winter of 2010-11. My guess at this time is that the month will end up on the positive side but not by much. Agreed on all counts. Bursts of heat but nothing locking in over the Eastern US. My summer outlook was +1 to +2 for June, and depending on how the last 10 days of the month turn out, I think we can still attain +1. As the El Nino base state gets established, I think we'll see more pronounced cool shots in July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 13, 2012 Share Posted June 13, 2012 6/12 Hi/Low (dep) NYC: 72/65 (-2) EWR: 74/67 (-1) LGA: 74/65 (-1) JFK: TTN: 73/66 (0) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 13, 2012 Share Posted June 13, 2012 Agreed on all counts. Bursts of heat but nothing locking in over the Eastern US. My summer outlook was +1 to +2 for June, and depending on how the last 10 days of the month turn out, I think we can still attain +1. As the El Nino base state gets established, I think we'll see more pronounced cool shots in July. That trough showing up around 6/25 looks fairly deep and could linger to end the month. We will need to tack on some strong positives 6/18 - 6/24 to get back above normal for the month if we fall back to normal or below the last few days. I agree with your overall summer cast perhaps Aug coolest against the means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 13, 2012 Share Posted June 13, 2012 Agreed on all counts. Bursts of heat but nothing locking in over the Eastern US. My summer outlook was +1 to +2 for June, and depending on how the last 10 days of the month turn out, I think we can still attain +1. As the El Nino base state gets established, I think we'll see more pronounced cool shots in July. if we get nino, and that is still a big if, i doubt we can see its affects that early, especially since the atmopshere has a def. lag time and we will just be skirting very weak nino territory in july, if at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 13, 2012 Share Posted June 13, 2012 if we get nino, and that is still a big if, i doubt we can see its affects that early, especially since the atmopshere has a def. lag time and we will just be skirting very weak nino territory in july, if at all. Disagree. The SOI has been negative for two consecutive months now (April and May values were -6.4 and -2.4 respectively), and the neg SOI has been increasing in recent weeks. -8.0 for the past 30 days, and daily SOI's in the -20s now. For the majority of cases, when we see more than two consecutive months with -SOI, it signals a change in base state from Nina to Nino. So the atmosphere is already in an El Nino phase IMO, and we're seeing those effects with the development of the -NAO since the end of May. Tropical Pacific SSTA hasn't responded yet, but that's usually one of the last indicators to flip into Nino territory, while the SOI is often the biggest clue, IMO, of a transition from one ENSO state to another. SSTA are much cooler than 2009 at this time, and this was one of the reasons I didn't think we'd see a year w/o a summer. This Nino is coming on much more slowly (and should peak well under 2009), but given the SOI trends, I think the Nino is real, and will eventually show in region 3.4 as +0.5C by late summer probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 13, 2012 Share Posted June 13, 2012 0.70" of rain in Monmouth County and has been raining steadily throughout the evening. Radar looks spotty now, with embedded heavier pcpn; I'll probably end up with near 1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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