SACRUS Posted June 11, 2012 Share Posted June 11, 2012 That's what I said but you quoted me before I finished. This post 2010 climo is much warmer here than years that we have seen before. The SST's are well above normal off the coast here so even when we get an onshore flow the low temperatures underperform. Im curious if 2003 was similar? Are you able to post that June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 11, 2012 Author Share Posted June 11, 2012 12z NAM goes haywire and now dumps over 2" of rain for NYC with even higher totals north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 11, 2012 Share Posted June 11, 2012 Im curious if 2003 was similar? Are you able to post that June. Weaker blocking and different Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 11, 2012 Author Share Posted June 11, 2012 12z NAM totals: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 11, 2012 Share Posted June 11, 2012 Nam will likely cut back tomorrow as it often does right before the event--either way, I'd lock in a good inch areawide.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 11, 2012 Share Posted June 11, 2012 Looks like light rain starts tomorrow afternoon/evening and lasts through Wednesday afternoon/evening with the bulk of the rain falling Wednesday early morning. For you job and winterwarlock, tomorrow morning and early afternoon might be doable. Wednesday looks like a washout, especially in the morning hours. Thank you so much al...i appreciate it so much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 11, 2012 Author Share Posted June 11, 2012 Nam will likely cut back tomorrow as it often does right before the event--either way, I'd lock in a good inch areawide.... 12z GFS cut back. It barely has .50" into NYC. .25" for LI. Keeps the heaviest axis well west of us and into Central PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 11, 2012 Share Posted June 11, 2012 Wonder if the NAM is not seeing the block that well.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted June 11, 2012 Share Posted June 11, 2012 The 12z NAM is forming a wave along the cold front over NJ tomorrow. While the 12z GFS is forming it over VA. Therefore, the difference in rainfall amounts, for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 11, 2012 Author Share Posted June 11, 2012 Kind of weird seeing Newark 3-4 degrees below NYC/LGA as of 1pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 11, 2012 Share Posted June 11, 2012 Kind of weird seeing Newark 3-4 degrees below NYC/LGA as of 1pm. it's more exposed to water to its se than the others. It's close to 80 a few miles west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 11, 2012 Share Posted June 11, 2012 Kind of weird seeing Newark 3-4 degrees below NYC/LGA as of 1pm. they took my comments to heart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 11, 2012 Author Share Posted June 11, 2012 Euro is similar to the NAM for the rain totals. Close to 2" for the NYC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 11, 2012 Share Posted June 11, 2012 Euro is similar to the NAM for the rain totals. Close to 2" for the NYC area. maybe the NAM is onto something for once--if the Euro supports it, then I'd go with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 11, 2012 Share Posted June 11, 2012 Euro is similar to the NAM for the rain totals. Close to 2" for the NYC area. i thought you said everything backed off to less than .75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted June 11, 2012 Share Posted June 11, 2012 it's more exposed to water to its se than the others. It's close to 80 a few miles west Not that warm at Jones beach right now...disappointed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 11, 2012 Author Share Posted June 11, 2012 i thought you said everything backed off to less than .75 Last night's euro did, but Forky was right; it was convective feedback in southern Jersey robbing the rest of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 11, 2012 Share Posted June 11, 2012 Euro is similar to the NAM for the rain totals. Close to 2" for the NYC area. it's consistent with the exception of last night's run... i'd run with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted June 11, 2012 Share Posted June 11, 2012 Euro? 0z Euro has about .625-.75" for NYC and for your area. The big totals of well over 1" to as much as 2" are confined to mid and south Jersey, especially ACY to Cape May. 6z GFS is 1.25"-1.50" for the NYC area. 6z NAM is right around 1" for NYC and more north. Pwats are over 2.00" tomorrow...I wouldnt take model qpf verbatim, looks like tere should be pockets of very heavy rainfall rates with this event, and localized flash flooding possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 11, 2012 Share Posted June 11, 2012 dummy question, but what are PWATS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted June 11, 2012 Share Posted June 11, 2012 dummy question, but what are PWATS? Precipitable Water values... The amount of water that can be obtained from the surface to the "top" of the atmosphere if all of the water and water vapor were condensed to a liquid phase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 11, 2012 Share Posted June 11, 2012 Pwats are over 2.00" tomorrow...I wouldnt take model qpf verbatim, looks like tere should be pockets of very heavy rainfall rates with this event, and localized flash flooding possible funny to see QPF fetishes carry over from winter to summer. It's gonna pour, and whether we get 1.5 or 2, its gonna be wet and ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 11, 2012 Author Share Posted June 11, 2012 Pwats are over 2.00" tomorrow...I wouldnt take model qpf verbatim, looks like tere should be pockets of very heavy rainfall rates with this event, and localized flash flooding possible Being that the 12z euro is in line with the NAM and Pwats, its highly likely a nice soaking of 1.50"+ is on the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 11, 2012 Share Posted June 11, 2012 Being that the 12z euro is in line with the NAM and Pwats, its highly likely a nice soaking of 1.50"+ is on the way. most don't need the rain, so i assume by nice, you mean a healthy amount of liquid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 11, 2012 Share Posted June 11, 2012 Being that the 12z euro is in line with the NAM and Pwats, its highly likely a nice soaking of 1.50"+ is on the way. Agreed and stil think if this trends a certain way it would be for a wetter solution. Seen this setup too many times and its usually very wet. Looks like the 12 ecm backed off the 00z solution building heat next weekend/week. Been back and forth for the last 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 11, 2012 Share Posted June 11, 2012 It's going to be a slow process getting any real warmth in here. The blocking pattern has been so strong that the models may be trying to break down the effects too soon. Check out how the Euro ensemble mean keeps pushing the warmer weather further out in time. As we get closer to the end of it's 6-10 day range, it starts seeing more troughing just off the NE Coast. Even with all this blocking, NYC has only managed 5/11 negative departures for June, and 2 of those 5 were -1 days, so really only 3 solid negatives. I agree though we're only looking at near to slightly above normal departures through D7. But I think it'll be fairly easy to finish this month +, given the NAO is already relaxing, and the coolest temp departures are probably done for June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 11, 2012 Share Posted June 11, 2012 " Observed Not observed Forecast a (hit) b (false alarm) Not Forecast c (miss) d (correct rejection) In the following discussion, N=a+b+c+d. The computation of the performances measures displayed is described below: Equitable Threat Score = the number of correct forecasts minus number expected by chance divided by the same quantity plus the number of erroneous forecasts = [a - (a+(a+c)/N] / [a + b + c - (a+(a+c)/N]. This score ranges from less than 0 to 1; a perfect score is 1. Bias = the ratio of the total number forecast to the total number observed = (a+ / (a+c). In the graphs, the bias values are plotted along the axis on the right side of the plot." http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/rgnscr/verify.html the graph is for 48 hours. you can see the euro is king for .10" to 1" events, with the nam and gfs doing a tradeoff as the precip increases Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 11, 2012 Share Posted June 11, 2012 The 12z SPC has a plume of very heavy rain moving through the Mid Atlantic and towards the Northeast at the tail end of its run...whenever it prints out big numbers it's usually a good sign if you're looking for lots of precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 11, 2012 Share Posted June 11, 2012 anyone have any thoughts as to when the heaviest rain gets into the area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 11, 2012 Share Posted June 11, 2012 Clouds really hung tough today especially in NE-NJ/NYC keeping temps lower. Depsite the clouds and cooler temps it looks like we're still in the black with stations having positive daily departures. High low (dep) NYC: 77/66 (+2) EWR: 75/68 (+1) LGA: 78/67 (+2) JFK: TTN: 79/64 (+3) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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