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June observations and discussions...


ag3

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Not hard, just get tapatalk, great free app. Can upload pics all day.

Doesn't that funnel the forum through their formatting? I never liked that. Bottom line there is no native support for uploading files on the iPhone. Let's see if they put it in IOS6.

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some parts of NYC hit 90 already but other places didn't...There are many localized temperature differences around the city...The front of my house is cooler than the back because it faces north...This Summer can still turn out hot...Time will tell...The last two Summers had some very hot days...here is the list of summers with days 95 degrees or higher...

Extreme heat days 95 or higher.....

16 in 1955

13 in 1988

12 in 1953

12 in 1993

12 in 1999

12 in 2002

10 in 1944

10 in 1980

9.. in 2005

9.. in 1983

9.. in 1966

8.. in 1963

8.. in 1991

8.. in 2010

last year there were five days 95 or better in Central Park...

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Monthly departures thru 6/10 third of the way there.

NYC: -1.9

EWR: -1.8

LGA: -0.7

JFK: -0.9

TNN: -2.0

Slowly eroding those negatives. This coming week looks near normal for the Northeast/New England, maybe another backdoor late this week w/ strong high pressure building over SE Canada. Still think we can torch the last 1/3 of the month as the NAO relaxes and the central US ridges pulses east.

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Last time NYC didn't hit 90 in June - 2009, 1996, 1992. Interestingly the park did hit 90 in either May or April of those years. This years may high 89.5 and 89.5 with most other stations above 90 those days.

Unc would have the larger list of latest 90 degree readings.

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...sunday was a great beach day here on the east end.Winds were pretty

light out of the SSE..wall to wall sunshine..ocean was flat and still pretty

cool..but i did manage a couple of dips.Was hoping for a repeat performance

today but right now its cloudy and cool w/ a freshening E wind..thought today

was suppose to be nice..

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Yeah I hope it's going to dry out this afternoon ..because right now its a pretty muggy 68-70 out

...sunday was a great beach day here on the east end.Winds were pretty

light out of the SSE..wall to wall sunshine..ocean was flat and still pretty

cool..but i did manage a couple of dips.Was hoping for a repeat performance

today but right now its cloudy and cool w/ a freshening E wind..thought today

was suppose to be nice..

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It's going to be a slow process getting any real warmth in here. The blocking pattern has been

so strong that the models may be trying to break down the effects too soon. Check out how

the Euro ensemble mean keeps pushing the warmer weather further out in time. As we get

closer to the end of it's 6-10 day range, it starts seeing more troughing just off the NE Coast.

Very strong June blocking pattern

Earlier Euro run tries to have more ridging just off New England.

Recent run says not so fast

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It's going to be a slow process getting any real warmth in here. The blocking pattern has been

so strong that the models may be trying to break down the effects too soon. Check out how

the Euro ensemble mean keeps pushing the warmer weather further out in time. As we get

closer to the end of it's 6-10 day range, it starts seeing more troughing just off the NE Coast.

Very strong June blocking pattern

Earlier Euro run tries to have more ridging just off New England.

Recent run says not so fast

Its going to be interesting to track when the heat builds in .. The ECM has been back and forth with potential heat on/around 6/17 for the last 3 days. GFS holds serve through the 20th before it has warmer look, although 6z looked a touch warmer.

Any analogs to the current pattern you can think of?

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What looked like a 2"-3" soaking for Tuesday/Wednesday, now looks like a .50"-.75" type thing, taking a blend of all the models, including the euro.

I still wouldnt rule out the wetter scenario with potential front slowing/stalling. Maybe less widespread than what some guidance was showing but I think some areas could get some hefty rain amounts tue - wed.

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i'm seeing 1-2" on everything except the nam

Euro?

0z Euro has about .625-.75" for NYC and for your area.

The big totals of well over 1" to as much as 2" are confined to mid and south Jersey, especially ACY to Cape May.

6z GFS is 1.25"-1.50" for the NYC area.

6z NAM is right around 1" for NYC and more north.

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OK. I'll take your word for it. I dont have soundings in the summer for exact amounts, but on both Stormvista and Wunderground, I added up around .75"-1".

it has a small blob of convection off the nj coast which robs us. the ensemble mean is more widespread with the rain

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Its going to be interesting to track when the heat builds in .. The ECM has been back and forth with potential heat on/around 6/17 for the last 3 days. GFS holds serve through the 20th before it has warmer look, although 6z looked a touch warmer.

Any analogs to the current pattern you can think of?

There are no recent analogs for the strength of the blocking during the first week of June.

This first week of June had more blocking than 1998. The main difference now is how much

warmer the pattern is now than back then. The cool anomalies are much less than back then.

The other difference is the trough near the West Coast now as compared to a ridge back then.

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There are no recent analogs for the strength of the blocking during the first week of June.

This first week of June had more blocking than 1998. The main difference now is how much

warmer the pattern is now than back then. The cool anomalies are much less than back then.

the pac is very different

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the pac is very different

That's what I said but you quoted me before I finished. ^_^

This post 2010 climo is much warmer here than years that we have seen before.

The SST's are above normal off the coast here so even when we get an onshore

flow the low temperatures underperform.

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Time frame for rain? Tue night-wed? Thanks

Looks like light rain starts tomorrow afternoon/evening and lasts through Wednesday afternoon/evening with the bulk of the rain falling Wednesday early morning.

For your job and winterwarlock, tomorrow morning and early afternoon might be doable. Wednesday looks like a washout, especially in the morning hours.

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