earthlight Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 Just a heads up, I moved the thunderstorm posts from yesterday to this June convection/thunderstorm discussion thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 Are your months off or are we talking about a different year? Yeah, Central Park had to wait until July 7th for a 90 degree day after the June 19th NAO low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 When I post a DGEX map, it's obviously not a forecast. I wouldve though that, after all these years on the forum, you would've been able to figure that one out. I'm assuming he's referring to my discussions yesterday with Isotherm about the potential for a backdoor front being hinted at on the models...which a bunch of the models have now caught on to. In which case, thanks Tim..and I think the heat is delayed but not denied if that shortwave does get caught east of New England. you were very bullish for heat in the thunderstorm thread too, euro says no back door front down this way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 Are your months off or are we talking about a different year? After the NAO low on June 19th low, NYC had to wait until July 7th to get above 90 again. 19 83 69 76 4 20 81 67 74 2 21 82 70 76 3 22 80 71 76 3 23 71 66 69 -4 24 70 65 68 -5 25 80 64 72 -2 26 79 66 73 -1 27 82 66 74 0 28 83 72 78 4 29 82 69 76 2 30 82 65 74 -1 1 83 63 73 -2 2 86 68 77 2 3 74 69 72 -3 4 86 70 78 3 5 87 70 79 3 6 89 73 81 5 7 92 74 83 7 Last June 19th This June 4th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 you were very bullish for heat in the thunderstorm thread too, euro says no back door front down this way You'll notice that I did point out a few key things in that discussion. First, "looking ahead to the long range" which tips off the fact that the event is far away, second "the event is still a long ways out" and third "the forecast models have been trending away from the more aggressive height falls". I don't see any bullish forecasts for heat in there, but if you took it that way...it's my fault for giving off that idea and I apologize for the confusion. In addition..the Euro still does have a weak semblance of a backdoor front on Monday. Temperatures over Central PA are in the 80's and 90's, while New England and parts of Long Island even to NYC are in the 60s at 18z. This is in response to the upper level shortwave myself and a few others were discussing and the subsequent marine influence in the low levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 euro says no back door front down this way Also, check out the backdoor signal on the new 12z NAM. You can even see the seabreeze front being pushed inland on the 10m wind streamlines with clouds and precipitation behind it and 10kt winds near Sandy Hook and the South Shore of Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 After the NAO low on June 19th low, NYC had to wait until July 7th to get above 90 again. 19 83 69 76 4 20 81 67 74 2 21 82 70 76 3 22 80 71 76 3 23 71 66 69 -4 24 70 65 68 -5 25 80 64 72 -2 26 79 66 73 -1 27 82 66 74 0 28 83 72 78 4 29 82 69 76 2 30 82 65 74 -1 1 83 63 73 -2 2 86 68 77 2 3 74 69 72 -3 4 86 70 78 3 5 87 70 79 3 6 89 73 81 5 7 92 74 83 7 Last June 19th This June 4th EWR and others hit 90 several times between Jul1 and the 7th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 Also, check out the backdoor signal on the new 12z NAM. You can even see the seabreeze front being pushed inland on the 10m wind streamlines with clouds and precipitation behind it and 10kt winds near Sandy Hook and the South Shore of Long Island. Lets hope thats wrong by 180 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 delayed but not denied if that Watch it, some people have had very bad success with that term. I agree though, I think we're warming up overall as the months continues. The second half of June should be warmer than normal, and probably produce our first heat wave IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 Watch it, some people have had very bad success with that term. I agree though, I think we're warming up overall as the months continues. The second half of June should be warmer than normal, and probably produce our first heat wave IMO. You and I both included, ha. Agreed on all counts. Even the GFS Ensemble mean 500 height anomalies are getting aggressive now around mid month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 EWR and others hit 90 several times between Jul1 and the 7th That's true but it was a slow process for the heat to build back in after the early June warmth was interrupted by the the big -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 a good analog for this year since March is 1946...It was warm in March...Cool the end of April...Warm the end of May...Cool the first week of June...then 90 degrees on June 8th...The Summer wasn't hot...1945 also had a warm March and cool first week of June...(coolest on record)...The second half of June 1945 was hot with the first 90 on 6/14 and upper 90's at months end...that summer wasn't that hot either... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 7th consecutive day of rain here in Monmouth. I've got hvy T-storms right now, coming down gangbusters. 0.20" already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 That's true but it was a slow process for the heat to build back in after the early June warmth was interrupted by the the big -NAO. Good point Blue wave and great illustrations and references as always. Id say we turn our attention to fathers day weekend for the next heat signal. Lets see if we can sustain the signal on guidance as we go forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 You and I both included, ha. Agreed on all counts. Even the GFS Ensemble mean 500 height anomalies are getting aggressive now around mid month. 12z Euro looks that way as well for fathers day weekend. One thing is for sure guidance wants to keep a trough into the west coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 8, 2012 Share Posted June 8, 2012 I took some photos of the beautiful rainbow here on Long Island this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 8, 2012 Share Posted June 8, 2012 Today's highs almost back in the black Hi/Low Dep NYC: 78/58 (-1) EWR: 80/59 (0) LGA: 79/62 (+1) JFK: TTN: 79/54 (-1) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted June 8, 2012 Share Posted June 8, 2012 These rainbows have been pretty spectacular the last few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 8, 2012 Share Posted June 8, 2012 Lets hope thats wrong by 180 miles. Wish granted on tonight's run, partially, as the NAM shifts the 850mb thermal gradient farther north and east allowing areas in NJ and even to NYC to really torch Sunday afternoon. The seabreeze front eventually takes over at 00z..notice the 10m winds http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ETAPA_0z/f72.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted June 8, 2012 Share Posted June 8, 2012 I took some photos of the beautiful rainbow here on Long Island this evening. Nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickD2011 Posted June 8, 2012 Share Posted June 8, 2012 I took some photos of the beautiful rainbow here on Long Island this evening. Oh my god! It's a double rainbow all the way across the sky! What does it mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted June 8, 2012 Share Posted June 8, 2012 Oh my god! It's a double rainbow all the way across the sky! What does it mean? -NAO from November 2012 to March 2013, weak el nino, MJO in 7 and 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 8, 2012 Share Posted June 8, 2012 -NAO from November 2012 to March 2013, weak el nino, MJO in 7 and 8. Pretty much the exact opposite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted June 8, 2012 Share Posted June 8, 2012 Pretty much the exact opposite. Got sick of the sharks? That lasted long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 8, 2012 Share Posted June 8, 2012 -NAO from November 2012 to March 2013, weak el nino, MJO in 7 and 8. JB agrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 8, 2012 Share Posted June 8, 2012 Got sick of the sharks? That lasted long. Say what? Next year dude. Lolz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 8, 2012 Share Posted June 8, 2012 JB agrees Epic fail.coming. u still paying for his free forecasts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 8, 2012 Share Posted June 8, 2012 Epic fail.coming. u still paying for his free forecasts? I pay double b/c JB is that good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted June 8, 2012 Share Posted June 8, 2012 just had a very brief shower with big drops...otherwise it's beautiful out there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted June 8, 2012 Share Posted June 8, 2012 I pay double b/c JB is that good. http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2012/06/08/joe-bastardi-here-comes-the-el-nino-right-on-schedule/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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