TheTrials Posted June 6, 2012 Share Posted June 6, 2012 Interesting article about Mondays cold air funnel clouds in NJ http://www.nj.com/we...tions_prod.html biggest severe outbreak in 2 years and all the severe junkies missed it. Asleep at the switch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 6, 2012 Share Posted June 6, 2012 Does this cool prove ominous for a cooler/wetter (2004, 2009, 2003) summer or will it follow prior cool patterns in overall warm - hot summers (2010, 1980, 1988).... The heat that is likely next week makes me think that this cool period may not be any strong indication for the summer either way. Agreed. I think the rest of June looks fairly warm/humid with periods of 90F temperatures as well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 6, 2012 Share Posted June 6, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 6, 2012 Share Posted June 6, 2012 Oh great..more rain....does the the long range look dry? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 6, 2012 Share Posted June 6, 2012 What a morning -- feels and looks like fall. 47.1F low here, quite chilly for early June. Great sleeping weather. 59 with brilliant sun right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 6, 2012 Share Posted June 6, 2012 Interestingly the GFS took the heat away after Sunday. Could just be a blip but they went from upper 80s to now showing mid 70s Oh great..more rain....does the the long range look dry? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted June 6, 2012 Share Posted June 6, 2012 Lots of dark clouds out there this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 6, 2012 Share Posted June 6, 2012 Lots of dark clouds out there this morning. U scared? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 6, 2012 Share Posted June 6, 2012 Small shower northwest of Berkeley Heights, showing up pretty well on Newark TEWR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted June 6, 2012 Share Posted June 6, 2012 What is that thing on the gfs for early sunday morning? almost a perfect circle of precip off the coast (after sliding through our area)? The NAM has some precip too, but dries most of it out before getting here Saturday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 6, 2012 Share Posted June 6, 2012 6th consecutive day of measurable pcpn here in Monmouth. Just recorded 0.11" in showers. Temp down to 62F from the high of 70F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted June 6, 2012 Share Posted June 6, 2012 Upton is going for warmup the next several days BUT watch out for those wind chills next wednesday afternoon http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.fpus51.KOKX.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 6, 2012 Share Posted June 6, 2012 Beware of the shortwave sliding north of New England and then off the coast on the models. If that gets caught up, we could see the backdoor front rear it's ugly head again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 6, 2012 Share Posted June 6, 2012 Beware of the shortwave sliding north of New England and then off the coast on the models. If that gets caught up, we could see the backdoor front rear it's ugly head again. Agree, whenever you see the core of the heat shooting nwd through the Plains, there's often room for backdooring in the coastal Northeast, especially NYC northeastward. I was thinking that as well w/ the 12z models - definite potential for resistance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted June 6, 2012 Share Posted June 6, 2012 Agree, whenever you see the core of the heat shooting nwd through the Plains, there's often room for backdooring in the coastal Northeast, especially NYC northeastward. I was thinking that as well w/ the 12z models - definite potential for resistance. With this pattern, it seems that when a potential for back door cold front exists, it's usually safe to side with that potential as it almost always verifies, with late May the main exception. The core of the heat recently has stayed to the west, and this case is no exception. In many of the cases recently from what I've observed models tend to underestimate the extent of BDCFs in the medium range, and this may be another one of these cases if the back door cold front does verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 6, 2012 Share Posted June 6, 2012 This was such a strong NAO drop that it will be a slower process to get any sustained warmth probably until after mid month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 6, 2012 Share Posted June 6, 2012 6/5 highs/low/ departures NYC: 64/51 (-10) EWR: 66/51 (-10) LGA: 65/53 (-10) JFK: 67/51 (-8) TTN: 67/48 (-10) brrrr 6/4 Today's highs NYC: 63/ 55 (-9) EWR: 64/55 (-9) LGA: 65/56 (-8) JFK: 65/54 (-7) TTN: 64/56 (-7) 6/6 NYC: 72/54 (-6): EWR: 73/52 (-7) LGA: 72/57 (-4) JFK: TTN: 72/48 (-8) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 Agree, whenever you see the core of the heat shooting nwd through the Plains, there's often room for backdooring in the coastal Northeast, especially NYC northeastward. I was thinking that as well w/ the 12z models - definite potential for resistance. This was such a strong NAO drop that it will be a slower process to get any sustained warmth probably until after mid month. Looks like Sunday may be the hottest day, then perhaps tue pre frontal passage that evening or overnight. Hopefully the backdoor is less expansive on subsequent runs. The pattern does look overall warm though into the longer range, perhaps another blast of heat by fathers day weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 Kudos to earthlight...all the 0z runs of the models have lost the torch for next week..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 Kudos to earthlight...all the 0z runs of the models have lost the torch for next week..... Its hard to go against trends supporting back door cold fronts in many cases recently... perhaps there could be some isolated/scattered storm activity on Saturday night and/or Sunday as the 0z models are also showing. Upton also added a risk of thunderstorms on Saturday night in its forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 Kudos to earthlight...all the 0z runs of the models have lost the torch for next week..... Was that before or after he was posting the Dgex showing 95 degree heat. Alot of torch mongers setting up to be dissappointed. Who cares either way as long as the rain stops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 Looks like Sunday may be the hottest day, then perhaps tue pre frontal passage that evening or overnight. Hopefully the backdoor is less expansive on subsequent runs. The pattern does look overall warm though into the longer range, perhaps another blast of heat by fathers day weekend. Yeah the pattern looks warmer than normal overall to me as well. Possibly no heat waves, but a warm/humid regime looks likely at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 Looks like Sunday may be the hottest day, then perhaps tue pre frontal passage that evening or overnight. Hopefully the backdoor is less expansive on subsequent runs. The pattern does look overall warm though into the longer range, perhaps another blast of heat by fathers day weekend. It looks like the next week will feature temperatures near to a few degrees above when averaged out. The big blocking pattern to start off the month with it's cooler than normal temperatures will gradually ease.The models are hinting that the next ridge amplification around ten days out will be west of us. The pattern would probably be above normal for us but no big heat. Next week June so far week two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 Looks like Sunday may be the hottest day, then perhaps tue pre frontal passage that evening or overnight. Hopefully the backdoor is less expansive on subsequent runs. The pattern does look overall warm though into the longer range, perhaps another blast of heat by fathers day weekend. Whenever you see a big ridge axis over the Midwest or Plains and heat pooling there, it's always an alarm in my mind to expect backdoors here. I don't really get excited for heat until I see the ridge axis further east or a flattening of it and removal of negative anomalies over Newfoundland, which means more westerlies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 7, 2012 Author Share Posted June 7, 2012 It looks like the next week will feature temperatures near to a few degrees above when averaged out. The big blocking pattern to start off the month with it's cooler than normal temperatures will gradually ease.The models are hinting that the next ridge amplification around ten days out will be west of us. The pattern would probably be above normal for us but no big heat. Euro ensembles from 0z tries to reestablish the block past the free maps range (past day 10). And its in a south and east position, which is not good for heat in our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 Euro ensembles from 0z tries to reestablish the block past the free maps range (past day 10). And its in a south and east position, which is not good for heat in our area. I just noticed that the 6z GFS ensemble mean has the ridge further west around day 10 from the last few days forecasts. It's interesting that the big NAO drop that peaked last June on the 19th wasn't followed by a +10 departure day in NYC until July 12th. 2011 6 19 -1.807 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 I feel like this is a reversal of the winter pattern...the heat is always 10 days away I just noticed that the 6z GFS ensemble mean has the ridge further west around day 10 from the last few days forecasts. It's interesting that the big NAO drop that peaked last June on the 19th wasn't followed by a +10 departure day in NYC until July 12th. 2011 6 19 -1.807 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 Was that before or after he was posting the Dgex showing 95 degree heat. Alot of torch mongers setting up to be dissappointed. Who cares either way as long as the rain stops. When I post a DGEX map, it's obviously not a forecast. I wouldve though that, after all these years on the forum, you would've been able to figure that one out. I'm assuming he's referring to my discussions yesterday with Isotherm about the potential for a backdoor front being hinted at on the models...which a bunch of the models have now caught on to. In which case, thanks Tim..and I think the heat is delayed but not denied if that shortwave does get caught east of New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 I feel like this is a reversal of the winter pattern...the heat is always 10 days away Yeah, Central Park had to wait until July 7th for a 90 degree day after the June 19th NAO low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 Yeah, Central Park had to wait until July 7th for a 90 degree day after the June 19th NAO low. Bluewave, looks like today chances of storms are better than yesterday in that places east of nyc actually have a better shot than yesterday. I guess we'll have to wait till 3 pm or later to find out where the best developments gonna be though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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