Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,878
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Cajax9
    Newest Member
    Cajax9
    Joined

June observations and discussions...


ag3

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.9k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
  On 6/16/2012 at 1:11 PM, Isotherm said:

Chilly low once again for mid June. Down to 51.0F here. Up to 71 now.

I've had 12 nights sub 60 so far this month, 2 of those in the 40s, which is pretty good for June. More like a September month.

I even made it down to 58.2 in Westchester, and I don't radiate nearly as well.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Anyone know what HPC is doing? They tend to be conservative during heat waves in their temperature outlooks but their latest update doesn't even have NYC/NE NJ reaching 90 degrees in their max temp outlook... GFS is still hot, CMC is trending hotter, ECM cooled down a bit for Wednesday but still has 90 degrees on Wednesday and more widespread 90s on Thursday.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 6/17/2012 at 1:24 AM, ag3 said:

Models are converging on a 2-3 day mini heat wave and then a big trough and cooldown again.

June has a shot to finish below normal. Will be close.

I will bet you a crisp ten dollar bill that this month will finish above normal.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 6/17/2012 at 4:04 AM, ag3 said:

Not if models are right after the mini heat wave.

00z gfs remains weaker with next weekend's trough 6/23 - 6/25 (cool down), flipped with the euro from prior runs. Id rather have the euro supporting but at least its enough to argue for a more progressivr trough before the 25th. It does dig deeper trough by the 26th thru the 30th before heights rise jul 1st and and nation-wide warm up in the models lala range.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 6/17/2012 at 4:51 AM, SACRUS said:

00z gfs remains weaker with next weekend's trough 6/23 - 6/25 (cool down), flipped with the euro from prior runs. Id rather have the euro supporting but at least its enough to argue for a more progressivr trough before the 25th. It does dig deeper trough by the 26th thru the 30th before heights rise jul 1st and and nation-wide warm up in the models lala range.

0z ecm also is weaker with next weekend trough and keeps it at normal thru next weekend into the week of the 25th. 0z gfs the same although the gfs wants to dig down a trough tue - fri (6/26 - 6/29) before building heights by week of 7/1.

Ensembles overall cooler than the ops but a step towards the less trough/cooler scenario from prior runs fri and sat.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 6/17/2012 at 2:08 PM, winterwarlock said:

long range seems to modify itself as time goes by with the extremes, too much jumping on the cool train. I think normal to slightly above after the heat

I think the period 6/24 - 6/30 will feature troughing over the northeast, but to what extent - i think as a whole we may come in overall near normal but more precip chances. Lurking in the wings to open July is potential ridging....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 6/17/2012 at 3:52 PM, ag3 said:

6z gfs has 88-90 both Wednesday and Thursday for NYC east and low 80's for Friday.

Thats ok I expect the park to be locked in at 89 tue - thu while other sites record 3rd - 5th 90 degree days.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 6/17/2012 at 4:24 PM, ag3 said:

LGA hit exactly 90 twice.

JFK has not hit 90 yet.

I was just kidding my friend. I think all stations rack up at least two 90 degree days. Only clouds seem to be the limit wed - thu. GFS continues with not much fanfare for the trough next weekend. Still looks closer to normal.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 6/17/2012 at 4:40 PM, SACRUS said:

I was just kidding my friend. I think all stations rack up at least two 90 degree days. Only clouds seem to be the limit wed - thu. GFS continues with not much fanfare for the trough next weekend. Still looks closer to normal.

I think EWR hits 90 3 times. LGA and NYC 2 times and JFK 1 time.

And these can be the last 90's until July, looking at long range ensembles.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.


×
×
  • Create New...