ag3 Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 As we head into June, we have strong blocking and a trapped ULL, advertised by models and ensembles. June looks to start off with normal temps and fairly wet. May started off with below normal temps but recovered towards mid to late month. Can June finally break the streak of above average temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 even with the blocking and ULL, its a June sun and we have had no problem going above normal recently even with all the rain and east flow, rememember, it keeps overnight lows higher. June should have no problem finishing +2 and above area wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 To be fair, this looks to be a solid stretch of below to start the month. 0 to +1 Sat-Sun... then a solid negative departure of -2 to -4 likely through the 10th...peak below temps will probably be in the -5 to -7 range middle of next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 I think the first week of June will average below normal, but major heat should shoot northeastward from the Plains by/after the 10th. It could get quite hot/humid by mid month. I'm fairly confident in a warmer than avg June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 I think the first week of June will average below normal, but major heat should shoot northeastward from the Plains by/after the 10th. It could get quite hot/humid by mid month. I'm fairly confident in a warmer than avg June. Given the trends I think that is a safe bet. Many said the same thing (finally a below avg month) going into May and look how that turned out. As always the trend is your friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Plus 8 in march. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Plus 8 in march. Wow. TORCH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 1, 2012 Author Share Posted June 1, 2012 Euro ensembles keep the -NAO block through its entire run, for the next 15 days. The operational breaks it down and the heat ridge returns towards day 10. Big differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 TORCH pretty soon spring will be 2/23, not 3/23. Global warming is a b itch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 pretty soon spring will be 2/23, not 3/23. Global warming is a b itch. Lol OK Al Gore Lol When will palm trees start growing in the arctic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Lol OK Al Gore Lol When will palm trees start growing in the arctic? there is no denying the globe is warming and we are seeing ridiculous stretches of ++++ departures. Im not on the AL Gore band wagon, but climo is changing and fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 I think June will feature mixed weather conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 1, 2012 Author Share Posted June 1, 2012 This isn't a global warming thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 This isn't a global warming thread. I'm observing how messed up the monthly departures are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 1, 2012 Author Share Posted June 1, 2012 Tomorrow doesnt appear like a washout. NAM has all the rain out of our area by 8-9am, after dropping about .75" of rain. Model concensus is now for a .50"-.75" rainfall, moving out early tomorrow morning and beginning tonight, after 8pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Absolutely hysterical we couldnt buy a map like this in winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 It's been an incredible run of + departures these past few years.. I was just looking back at my own data... I've been recording since August, 2007. Even when we did have a negative departure, it's pretty much just been 1-2 degree departure. My biggest negative departure in essentially the last 5 years was July, 2009.. It was -2.6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 there is no denying the globe is warming and we are seeing ridiculous stretches of ++++ departures. Im not on the AL Gore band wagon, but climo is changing and fast. I believe 2012 was the summer many had predicted to be ice-free in the Arctic, from back in the early 2000s. Reality -- ice extent is only slightly below normal, and above the past several years. 2000-2009 Jan-Dec: 2010-2011 Jan Dec. Notice the torch in the East, but cooling in the West, likely due to the -PDO signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 1, 2012 Author Share Posted June 1, 2012 Ensembles from the free site...-NAO block reloads after this on the pay maps through day 15: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 I believe 2012 was the summer many had predicted to be ice-free in the Arctic, from back in the early 2000s. Reality -- ice extent is only slightly below normal, and above the past several years. that's just ice extent, the globe is on fire with droughts everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 1, 2012 Author Share Posted June 1, 2012 Please keep the global warming stuff out of this thread. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Ensembles from the free site...-NAO block reloads after this on the pay maps through day 15: Even if H5 heights are that low, I'm not convinced surface temperatures will respond that much cooler than normal. Chris (bluewave) has made some good posts re the lack of cold sfc air associated with troughs in the past years. Cool airmasses have generally been underperforming. However, next week I could see a couple days stuck in the low 60s w/ strong onshore flow. June will certainly be starting off cooler than normal, much like May. Question is will be continue w/ that pattern or will this reverse by mid month. If it doesn't reverse, most of us in the June forecast thread will be busting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 For example, here are the H5 temp anomalies for Sunday, June 3rd: Forecast high surface temperatures for NYC -- around 76F, which is essentially normal for this time of year. http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=40.76598152771282&lon=-73.97369384765625&site=okx&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text The point is, in order to get cooler than normal highs, we need onshore flow. We'll get it for a handful of days next week I think -- those days could be quite cool. However, thereafter, I see us going back to a normal or slightly above normal regime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 ironic it takes an UBER block with anomlous ULL to get temps to "normal" Just shows you how torched we are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 It's also interesting how consistent the blocking pattern in June has been since 2007. We have had a negative NAO each June since 2007 and 4 out of the 5 years featured above normal temperatures around the area. What has usually happened was that temperatures warmed up as the blocking faded and the ridge over the plains build eastward. That's probably what we will see this June eventually as the heights gradually rebuild after the upper low lifts out. It still could be a slow process as the drop in the NAO is so strong. But the pattern still favors a warmer than normal month despite some cooler than normal days over the next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 It's also interesting how consistent the blocking pattern in June has been since 2007. We have had a negative NAO each June since 2007 and 4 out of the 5 years featured above normal temperatures around the area. What has usually happened was that temperatures warmed up as the blocking faded and the ridge over the plains build eastward. That's probably what we will see this June eventually as the heights gradually rebuild after the upper low lifts out. It still could be a slow process as the drop in the NAO is so strong. But the pattern still favors a warmer than normal month despite some cooler than normal days over the next week. and watch it wont come back until next summer which fits in well with my winter forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 ironic it takes an UBER block with anomlous ULL to get temps to "normal" Just shows you how torched we are. Well it's also the source of the cold -- it really works differently this time of year without any arctic air source. As tom said a few times, we get our below normal temperatures when the block forces a ULL off to our east, not directly over us. This brings the backdoor fronts and the onshore flow...and the much cooler temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Well it's also the source of the cold -- it really works differently this time of year without any arctic air source. As tom said a few times, we get our below normal temperatures when the block forces a ULL off to our east, not directly over us. This brings the backdoor fronts and the onshore flow...and the much cooler temps. point remains the same, we only got to normal because of an anomolous setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 It's been an incredible run of + departures these past few years.. I was just looking back at my own data... I've been recording since August, 2007. Even when we did have a negative departure, it's pretty much just been 1-2 degree departure. My biggest negative departure in essentially the last 5 years was July, 2009.. It was -2.6. December 2010 finished around 4.5F below normal in the region. June 2009 finished -3.7F at Central Park, and July 2009 finished -3.8F. There have been some larger negative departures than what you're saying. For example, here are the H5 temp anomalies for Sunday, June 3rd: Forecast high surface temperatures for NYC -- around 76F, which is essentially normal for this time of year. The point is, in order to get cooler than normal highs, we need onshore flow. We'll get it for a handful of days next week I think -- those days could be quite cool. However, thereafter, I see us going back to a normal or slightly above normal regime. I think the NWS is overdoing temperatures for Monday-Wednesday in the NYC metro area. Weather Channel has low to mid 60s as highs for Westchester for those days with occasional showers and onshore flow, with nights dipping into the mid 50s. That's about -5F departure for each day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Yeah I think with that much cloud cover we'll either see 60s for highs and 50s lows of 70s/60s. It would be hard to get down into the 50s with overcast skies and highs in the 70s I think the NWS is overdoing temperatures for Monday-Wednesday in the NYC metro area. Weather Channel has low to mid 60s as highs for Westchester for those days with occasional showers and onshore flow, with nights dipping into the mid 50s. That's about -5F departure for each day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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