Roger Smith Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 Just wondering if Mallow intends to start his annual North Atlantic seasonal and monthly tropical / hurricane forecasting contest? (edit ... Mallow is in the building). I suggest that we fill this thread with seasonal and June forecasts and figure out the scoring details in a few days. If Mallow decides to run the contest he can take over this thread. (edit, see Mallow's post later in the thread) Just to get it started, I would say, post your seasonal prediction realizing that two named storms have already been tagged, and add a forecast for June. The order of your forecast numbers, as always, should be Named storms / Hurricanes / Major (3+) Hurricanes and if you weren't with us for last year, all of a storm's performance counts only in the month it is first named (GMT applies in end of month cases). Since I posted a summer forecast with numbers, I will go with those to get this contest started. 21 / 13 / 7 seasonal 2 / 1 / 1 June Usually we have a fairly strict deadline with penalties but I will stick my neck out and say, regardless of who organizes this, we can tolerate a 3-day extension to get the contest going, so entries would be due by the end of the day in the Eastern time zone on Sunday, June 3rd. If an official thread is posted I will delete this one, after saving any forecasts made in it. For anyone new to this, or with no memory of last year's contest, scores are assigned to seasonal forecasts that can be amended with each month's entry. The value of your seasonal forecast will drop off as we near the end point. An equal number of points (or something close to it) will be available for your monthly predictions. Your final score is the sum of the two parts of the contest. If you miss a month or forget to update, your previous seasonal forecast carries over. You can always drop in with a monthly forecast ahead of vacation time so that would be there in the scoring system. But most people prefer to wait until the last day available to see how existing storms are doing, for fine-tuning their seasonal predictions. And by predictions, of course, I mean guesses, sometimes lucky (as I would know). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 12/6/2=seasonal 2/1/0=June Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 Seasonal: 17/8/4 June: 1/1/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 Wow, even though I created the temperature forecast thread for June, it still didn't hit me that it was almost June already! Same rules as last year sound good to everyone? If so, we'll make June's forecast due on Sunday, 6/3, at 11:59 PM EDT. I'm good for running the contest, as I already have the spreadsheet for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boulderrr Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 Seasonal - 14/6/3 June - 2/2/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 14/7/3 June: 1/0/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 Season: 15/7/3 June: 1/0/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
U_Thant Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 June 0/0/0 Season 11/5/3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 Season=15/5/3 June= 0/0/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carley5 Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 14/8/3 1 tropical storm for june. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Season: 20/0/0 June: 4/0/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted May 31, 2012 Author Share Posted May 31, 2012 Mallow, that's great news as your scoring system is top quality. Will post a link to this in the hurricane thread (unless I find one anyway). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 13/6/3 1/0/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Seasonal: 20/10/6 June: 2/1/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Season: 20/0/0 June: 4/0/0 Rainstorm, is that you? Obvious troll is obvious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ALhurricane Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Season: 15/8/3 June: 2/1/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Season: 15/7/3 June: 2/1/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Season: 16/8/3 June: 2/0.5/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Season: 18/7/3 June: 2/1/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Season 13.5 /5 /2.5 June 2/0/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 I was originally thinking 11/6/2, but I didn't expect Alberto and Beryl... So, in that case, 13/6/2.... active early, then the season shutting down early in October. For June, since we already had Alberto and Beryl, I should go 0/0/0, but with the Caribbean remaining unsettled, I'll go with 1/0/0 just to hedge my bets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Seasonal: 14/7/3 June: 1.2/0.5/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Seasonal: 13/7/4 June: 2/1/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Year: 17/8/3 June:4/2/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Seasonal: 14/7/3 June: 0/0/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Mallow, that's great news as your scoring system is top quality. Will post a link to this in the hurricane thread (unless I find one anyway). Sounds good, and thanks for keeping me on my toes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 season 16-5-1 June 1-1-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Without the two already named storms 12/8/3 2/1/0 June Just wondering if Mallow intends to start his annual North Atlantic seasonal and monthly tropical / hurricane forecasting contest? (edit ... Mallow is in the building). I suggest that we fill this thread with seasonal and June forecasts and figure out the scoring details in a few days. If Mallow decides to run the contest he can take over this thread. (edit, see Mallow's post later in the thread) Just to get it started, I would say, post your seasonal prediction realizing that two named storms have already been tagged, and add a forecast for June. The order of your forecast numbers, as always, should be Named storms / Hurricanes / Major (3+) Hurricanes and if you weren't with us for last year, all of a storm's performance counts only in the month it is first named (GMT applies in end of month cases). Since I posted a summer forecast with numbers, I will go with those to get this contest started. 21 / 13 / 7 seasonal 2 / 1 / 1 June Usually we have a fairly strict deadline with penalties but I will stick my neck out and say, regardless of who organizes this, we can tolerate a 3-day extension to get the contest going, so entries would be due by the end of the day in the Eastern time zone on Sunday, June 3rd. If an official thread is posted I will delete this one, after saving any forecasts made in it. For anyone new to this, or with no memory of last year's contest, scores are assigned to seasonal forecasts that can be amended with each month's entry. The value of your seasonal forecast will drop off as we near the end point. An equal number of points (or something close to it) will be available for your monthly predictions. Your final score is the sum of the two parts of the contest. If you miss a month or forget to update, your previous seasonal forecast carries over. You can always drop in with a monthly forecast ahead of vacation time so that would be there in the scoring system. But most people prefer to wait until the last day available to see how existing storms are doing, for fine-tuning their seasonal predictions. And by predictions, of course, I mean guesses, sometimes lucky (as I would know). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grcjrsc Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 June 2.5/.75/0 Season 17/9/2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Without the two already named storms 12/8/3 2/1/0 June The seasonal total will include all the storms, so your forecast would be 14/8/3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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