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Doldrums of weather heading into June


CoastalWx

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:sun: :sun: simply SUNsational!

After 15 straight months the ice pussays finally get a week to cheer about in June, how fitting. A victory in the first week of summer, just when we are looking forward to a break in the oppressive humidity and heat that has taken over our climate for the past year +.

66 and sunny

delightful north wind

OKX says sunny and 81, they have been spot on lately, however BDR and sw ct loves to bake on days like today, its a Downslope Dandy!!

Days like today and tomorrow just rip the soul out of the doomies and gloomies:(

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True but you also can't say it's a cold pattern because it's not like it's getting down into the 30s at night. And it seems as though BOS is using the onshore flow to remain at least near one standard deviation of normal, without that onshore flow that's a full on +7 torch month.

It's not like these troughs in New England are cold and keeping the area cooler than normal. Troughs may be the new torch though because even with troughiness, everyone was above normal, with the immediate coastal spots only a couple over instead of way over again inland.

It's getting to the point where we may need to rethink the forecasting rules as even an average trough over the area is giving above normal departures. We just don't get cold nights anymore so the chances of a below normal pattern is increasingly thin. It boggles my mind how we have hit a point where below normal heights are still translating to above normal temperatures.

What will it take to actually get a below normal temperatures? Record low heights aloft and that's our only prayer?

I never said it was a cool pattern. It's just a bootleg way to get + departures. This is really only in April and May when this happens.

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I never said it was a cool pattern. It's just a bootleg way to get + departures. This is really only in April and May when this happens.

As I said last night, ORH has had 14 daily highs above normal this month, here is BDL for May, these are highs 80 or above this month...............

81

84

83

86

80

87

84

89

93

80

Boston is different, but for the majority of southern new england, MAY was hot during the day and night.

Circle of Sizzle

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As I said last night, ORH has had 14 daily highs above normal this month, here is BDL for May, these are highs 80 or above this month...............

81

84

83

86

80

87

84

89

93

80

Boston is different, but for the majority of southern new england, MAY was hot during the day and night.

Circle of Sizzle

Yes this is a torch pattern, I was referring to early in the month.

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True but you also can't say it's a cold pattern because it's not like it's getting down into the 30s at night. And it seems as though BOS is using the onshore flow to remain at least near one standard deviation of normal, without that onshore flow that's a full on +7 torch month.

It's not like these troughs in New England are cold and keeping the area cooler than normal. Troughs may be the new torch though because even with troughiness, everyone was above normal, with the immediate coastal spots only a couple over instead of way over again inland.

It's getting to the point where we may need to rethink the forecasting rules as even an average trough over the area is giving above normal departures. We just don't get cold nights anymore so the chances of a below normal pattern is increasingly thin. It boggles my mind how we have hit a point where below normal heights are still translating to above normal temperatures.

What will it take to actually get a below normal temperatures? Record low heights aloft and that's our only prayer?

We haven't had below normal heights in New England this spring, though:

post-475-0-44461500-1338466145_thumb.gif

Even May hasn't seen a bit of troughing:

I do agree about the climate changing rather rapidly to favor above normal low temperatures, however. I think we have had ridging this spring, but I'd also be the first to say we RARELY get negative departures on nighttime lows in New England the past few years. People are talking about how this was a relatively "cool" May...well I don't think it's a cool month when the Monadnocks are consistently seeing lows in the upper 50s and low 60s compared to a long-term average of mid to upper 40s. We've almost forgotten that it's supposed to get chilly regularly at night at these elevations because the increased humidity and decreased radiative properties of the atmosphere have given us more and more insanely mild nights. I also remember being shocked when I learned the average nighttime low at Middlebury in January was like 9F...it seemed as if we spent far more nights above that mark during my college years than below it.

It is true, however, Scott, that below normal heights don't always equate to below normal temperatures. Any time you get a +EPO pattern, it blocks out the cold from North America. You can have below normal heights in the East but Canada isn't seeing any cold air. Winter 05-06 and parts of Winter 09-10 saw this "dead trough" pattern. When you combine that with a warming of the Arctic source regions and decreased ability for radiational cooling, you have a recipe for warmth.

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Kevin may still in the 50s on Monday. 48 or 49 for a high in ORH? LOL.

That seems pretty unlikely. ORH has stayed in the 40s in June once and that was a 44/49 day on 6/13/1982. BDL holding in the 50s has at least occurred a few times in the last decade. At least you know you can toss whatever model was predicting that.

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We haven't had below normal heights in New England this spring, though:

post-475-0-44461500-1338466145_thumb.gif

Even May hasn't seen a bit of troughing:

I do agree about the climate changing rather rapidly to favor above normal low temperatures, however. I think we have had ridging this spring, but I'd also be the first to say we RARELY get negative departures on nighttime lows in New England the past few years. People are talking about how this was a relatively "cool" May...well I don't think it's a cool month when the Monadnocks are consistently seeing lows in the upper 50s and low 60s compared to a long-term average of mid to upper 40s. We've almost forgotten that it's supposed to get chilly regularly at night at these elevations because the increased humidity and decreased radiative properties of the atmosphere have given us more and more insanely mild nights. I also remember being shocked when I learned the average nighttime low at Middlebury in January was like 9F...it seemed as if we spent far more nights above that mark during my college years than below it.

It is true, however, Scott, that below normal heights don't always equate to below normal temperatures. Any time you get a +EPO pattern, it blocks out the cold from North America. You can have below normal heights in the East but Canada isn't seeing any cold air. Winter 05-06 and parts of Winter 09-10 saw this "dead trough" pattern. When you combine that with a warming of the Arctic source regions and decreased ability for radiational cooling, you have a recipe for warmth.

I'm not sure if I'm being clear. I never said below normal heights equates to below normal temps. It's just not a "torch" pattern that has brought us the above normal regime since the Fall.

You can't have below normal highs and then above normal lows and say it's the same pattern. It's wrong and not true. That was my only point to those who cling to the same song and dance when highs are like -4 and lows are +6. That's all I mean. I'm not arguing one bit that it has not been warm.

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That seems pretty unlikely. ORH has stayed in the 40s in June once and that was a 44/49 day on 6/13/1982. BDL holding in the 50s has at least occurred a few times in the last decade. At least you know you can toss whatever model was predicting that.

It was tongue and cheek, but ORH would stuggle past 50 if the GFS and Euro are right.

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line been drawn, lets let it play out folks, personally I think something in between wins out, usually does, and the trend all spring, all year has been for the warmth to win.

Looks like 65-70 here at least with a day or two of showers. Later next week into the weekend look killer.

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line been drawn, lets let it play out folks, personally I think something in between wins out, usually does, and the trend all spring, all year has been for the warmth to win.

Looks like 65-70 here at least with a day or two of showers. Later next week into the weekend look killer.

Second weekend looks mild to warm and then beyond mid month could get very warm again.

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This is going to be a wonderful battle, we all know where everyone stands..........after having a very hot start in early May the SFS had a few stumbles along the way mid and late month. The KFS and LLFS had a rough start but finished strong, despite the back to back severe weather debacles that the KFS recently had.

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Not everyone concurs with your position.

http://www.wggb.com/weather/

They seem optimistic Monday and Tuesday at least. Thursday and Friday could have those temps. Looks like they ripped and read MOS.

We'll see. It's Thursday so things can change, all I'm saying is that people should be prepared for a cool week with lousy weather at times..especially Monday-Wednesday. I'm not sure why that's so awful. The same thing happened a few weeks ago when the usual people argued against cool weather and we had 3-5 days of cool temps.

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