snowman21 Posted June 12, 2012 Share Posted June 12, 2012 LOL... never changes. It's quite the gradient in temperatures between the 25 miles and 300 ft of elevation that separates Tolland and W Chesterfield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 12, 2012 Share Posted June 12, 2012 FWIW, I have an electric sensor that measures the temp and humidity and then I perform a calculation on the DP. I think that MADIS does this as well because all I submit to them is the temp and humidity. In any event, my DP is 62, just north of Kevin. That would correlate with the Tolland Meso's. Not sure what's happening in the valley at BDL or up in ORH, that's what I have here. Thanks Dave. Scooter always thinks I'm lying about my obs. As you know from living here and sneaking into my neighborhood lol, it's a microclimate and I just laugh off his comments though they do get tiresome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 12, 2012 Share Posted June 12, 2012 It's interesting in a way to see this -NAO plaguing the mid-Atlantic and NE regions. In the current operational run's version of the synoptic mean what we see is a blocking of the MW heat from ever getting in here along the I-95 corridor from PWM to DCA. The -NAO is pinning a weakness/closed low SE of the Maritimes that basically back stopping the ridge from the MW from progressing east. The result is a surface ridge that is like a finger of cool extending SW from the cold NW Atlantic. Otherwise, that ridge would settle into the Bermuda position and we'd be in. Summer won't truly begin until that configuration breaks down and allows the continental air to flood the coastal plain on true deep layer westerlies. I mention yesterday that I was growing concerned about a -NAO summer. This would stand pretty much in the face of my own seasonal forecast if that happens; I didn't foresee that as being the case, should things pan out that way. Too early to tell.. One thing that does occur to me, we are technically in at or less than 0.0 AMO, so -NAO should be favored. Historically, the curve shows an ~ 2 to 3 decade above and below 0.0SD tendency in an ongoing oscillatory behavior. What is interesting about last winters persistent positive is the apparently correlation - not sure if that is formally researched - it had to the late last summer and autumn solar storm activity. The increased activity is shown to break down ozone in the stratosphere; ozone presence in the mean polar vortex at high altitudes is shown to preceded SSW events and warm readings over all --> -AO/-EPO/-NAO tendencies. So in a cause-and-effect sense of it the fact that last winter seemed to defeat said multi-decadal suggestion, really seems to point the sun this time. Continuing further ... the sun has been not nearly as active during the winter and early spring (though some activity has been noted, the activity did not appear to interact as heavily with the Earth's magnetism); it may be possible that the NAO is merely slipping back into its background suggestion because the solar influence has waned. ...Just in time to f* over summer weather enthusiasts. I dunno - fun to think about. But this 77/53 with bouts of marine intrusion scenario is going to keep tucking into the I-95 corridor so long as we are plagued by west based -NAO... Even a marginal one seems to be capable of reach back SW like a bony finger of summer death, tickling the daily means cooler. I was looking at that Frankenstein model, DGEX, out through D7 and it has Ontario cooking in 93-97F heat while BOS may be stuck in the upper 60s because of this nuance in the large scale. My hunch is that the sun will fire back up in August just to ruin next winter, too - HA! Thankfully most of us don't live in Boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 12, 2012 Share Posted June 12, 2012 Good thoughts. The NAO will rise to near neutral of the models are right after the 20th so maybe that's when we get a 2-3 day warm spell? Time will tell on that. Yeah, that's what I've been thinking, after by b-day, the 19th of June through the end of the month. Far from certain. And by warm spell, I'm thinking multi day 85+ with DPs solidly over 60 ...63+ Doesn't even have to be a heat wave, but I don't see how we can even be much above normal in this regime - save for nightime lows being elevated by rain. Which is kind of cheating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 12, 2012 Share Posted June 12, 2012 Thankfully most of us don't live in Boston Miss the point: Boston is just used as an example ...we are talking about CT along with everyone else from DCA-PWM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted June 12, 2012 Share Posted June 12, 2012 Thanks Dave. Scooter always thinks I'm lying about my obs. As you know from living here and sneaking into my neighborhood lol, it's a microclimate and I just laugh off his comments though they do get tiresome lol...NE CT is a special place, that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 12, 2012 Share Posted June 12, 2012 Miss the point: Boston is just used as an example ...we are talking about CT along with everyone else from DCA-PWM No I didn't at all. If its upper 60's and muggy in Bos, it's 76-82 inland. Thursday will be a great example, while you guys are socked in with fog and drizzle all day we'll break out into a beautiful sunny afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 12, 2012 Share Posted June 12, 2012 Although, Scott, the 12z GFS is looking rather torrid now as it does at last settle the PP in a way that our gradient comes around more westerly; that could placate Kevin's spin tactics quite a bit if that happens.... haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted June 12, 2012 Share Posted June 12, 2012 Very concerned about the weekend marine forecast NE with gusts to 25 knots is not fun boating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 12, 2012 Share Posted June 12, 2012 No I didn't at all. If its upper 60's and muggy in Bos, it's 76-82 inland. Thursday will be a great example, while you guys are socked in with fog and drizzle all day we'll break out into a beautiful sunny afternoon Keep in mind, the central thesis of that was that summer won't truly have begun until... this is an extended spring for the time being. But, alas - you may not have to wait... the 12z GFS is trying to turn on the dragon breath during the middle range. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 12, 2012 Share Posted June 12, 2012 yeah, I see that... It gets the 850mb to +17C for much of the area, with a 850mb height node centered over WV ...132 through 168 hours or so. If that succeeds that would be good for 2 days back to back in the high 88s with some continental dp to contend with. THAT is true summer. It'll be in interesting to see the other 12z guidance types. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted June 12, 2012 Share Posted June 12, 2012 Kinda raw here at the Pit. 66.5/60. It was much warmer when I was in Paxton a couple hours ago. Looks like mid-60's might be the best I do here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 12, 2012 Share Posted June 12, 2012 It's quite the gradient in temperatures between the 25 miles and 300 ft of elevation that separates Tolland and W Chesterfield. It always is... amazing for two elevated areas in SNE both near or above 1,000ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted June 12, 2012 Share Posted June 12, 2012 It's quite the gradient in temperatures between the 25 miles and 300 ft of elevation that separates Tolland and W Chesterfield. If you're talking 25 miles, I assume you are referring to Tolland, MA and not Tolland, CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 12, 2012 Share Posted June 12, 2012 moderate rain has commenced here...69/65 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted June 12, 2012 Share Posted June 12, 2012 LOL started in Greenwich and worked my way east early this morning staying ahead of the rain, just got home with some light rain falling. This is perfect nice soaker then its nothing but sun thur-sun, oh my oh my. jugs and mugs! Yuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 12, 2012 Share Posted June 12, 2012 Nice summery sunny afternoon in NE CT today . Humid with a breeze. Suntastic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted June 12, 2012 Share Posted June 12, 2012 Nice summery sunny afternoon in NE CT today . Humid with a breeze. Suntastic Sweet dude! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted June 12, 2012 Share Posted June 12, 2012 Nice summery sunny afternoon in NE CT today . Humid with a breeze. Suntastic Shawls are welcome in NW Mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 12, 2012 Share Posted June 12, 2012 Nice summery sunny afternoon in NE CT today . Humid with a breeze. Suntastic Sweet dude! you two make me throw up in my mouth a little bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 12, 2012 Share Posted June 12, 2012 euro is a pretty good soaking for just about all of SNE outside of the cape....looks like maybe 1/4 inch at best in these parts but generally .75 to 1.25 for the rest of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted June 12, 2012 Share Posted June 12, 2012 you two make me throw up in my mouth a little bit. glad to hear that phil Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 12, 2012 Share Posted June 12, 2012 glad to hear that phil sunsational Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted June 12, 2012 Share Posted June 12, 2012 sunsational Man this pattern is just awesome isnt it? Rain then sunny weekends, except this week its sun thur and fri leading into the weekend, great stuff! Once again the shawl wearing mountain mans area east takes the prize for warm spots of the day as clearly seen here. Congrats to mass east of the cr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 12, 2012 Share Posted June 12, 2012 NAM was much wetter for western NE with 2-3 inches, but it's usually overdone.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted June 12, 2012 Share Posted June 12, 2012 Man this pattern is just awesome isnt it? Rain then sunny weekends, except this week its sun thur and fri leading into the weekend, great stuff! Once again the shawl wearing mountain mans area east takes the prize for warm spots of the day as clearly seen here. Congrats to mass east of the cr. ????? Dude, I think you're looking at that in the mirror. GC is the cool spot. 66.2/60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted June 12, 2012 Share Posted June 12, 2012 ????? Dude, I think you're looking at that in the mirror. GC is the cool spot. 66.2/60 you forgot to bold the east part of that LOL, spin spin away Mike! Looking at that meso map its clear where the warmest temps are, from your area on east, while your special place might be an outlier. GFS looks awesome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 12, 2012 Share Posted June 12, 2012 NAM was much wetter for western NE with 2-3 inches, but it's usually overdone.... it wouldn't surprise me to see some higher totals. i don't know about 3 inches but 1.5 to 2+ might be achievable in spots. pretty moist airmass moving in and a decent jet before it weakens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted June 12, 2012 Share Posted June 12, 2012 it wouldn't surprise me to see some higher totals. i don't know about 3 inches but 1.5 to 2+ might be achievable in spots. pretty moist airmass moving in and a decent jet before it weakens okx agrees looks like they are going 1.5-2 inches around here. I think thats a solid call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 12, 2012 Share Posted June 12, 2012 you two make me throw up in my mouth a little bit. haha... gonna be awesome hearing about how "summer-like" the weather is over the next three months. Sunsational day over up here... rain just started and we're back in the 60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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