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Doldrums of weather heading into June


CoastalWx

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FWIW, I have an electric sensor that measures the temp and humidity and then I perform a calculation on the DP. I think that MADIS does this as well because all I submit to them is the temp and humidity. In any event, my DP is 62, just north of Kevin. That would correlate with the Tolland Meso's. Not sure what's happening in the valley at BDL or up in ORH, that's what I have here.

Thanks Dave. Scooter always thinks I'm lying about my obs. As you know from living here and sneaking into my neighborhood lol, it's a microclimate and I just laugh off his comments though they do get tiresome
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It's interesting in a way to see this -NAO plaguing the mid-Atlantic and NE regions. In the current operational run's version of the synoptic mean what we see is a blocking of the MW heat from ever getting in here along the I-95 corridor from PWM to DCA. The -NAO is pinning a weakness/closed low SE of the Maritimes that basically back stopping the ridge from the MW from progressing east. The result is a surface ridge that is like a finger of cool extending SW from the cold NW Atlantic. Otherwise, that ridge would settle into the Bermuda position and we'd be in.

Summer won't truly begin until that configuration breaks down and allows the continental air to flood the coastal plain on true deep layer westerlies.

I mention yesterday that I was growing concerned about a -NAO summer. This would stand pretty much in the face of my own seasonal forecast if that happens; I didn't foresee that as being the case, should things pan out that way. Too early to tell.. One thing that does occur to me, we are technically in at or less than 0.0 AMO, so -NAO should be favored. Historically, the curve shows an ~ 2 to 3 decade above and below 0.0SD tendency in an ongoing oscillatory behavior. What is interesting about last winters persistent positive is the apparently correlation - not sure if that is formally researched - it had to the late last summer and autumn solar storm activity. The increased activity is shown to break down ozone in the stratosphere; ozone presence in the mean polar vortex at high altitudes is shown to preceded SSW events and warm readings over all --> -AO/-EPO/-NAO tendencies. So in a cause-and-effect sense of it the fact that last winter seemed to defeat said multi-decadal suggestion, really seems to point the sun this time. Continuing further ... the sun has been not nearly as active during the winter and early spring (though some activity has been noted, the activity did not appear to interact as heavily with the Earth's magnetism); it may be possible that the NAO is merely slipping back into its background suggestion because the solar influence has waned. ...Just in time to f* over summer weather enthusiasts.

I dunno - fun to think about. But this 77/53 with bouts of marine intrusion scenario is going to keep tucking into the I-95 corridor so long as we are plagued by west based -NAO... Even a marginal one seems to be capable of reach back SW like a bony finger of summer death, tickling the daily means cooler. I was looking at that Frankenstein model, DGEX, out through D7 and it has Ontario cooking in 93-97F heat while BOS may be stuck in the upper 60s because of this nuance in the large scale.

My hunch is that the sun will fire back up in August just to ruin next winter, too - HA!

Thankfully most of us don't live in Boston
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Good thoughts. The NAO will rise to near neutral of the models are right after the 20th so maybe that's when we get a 2-3 day warm spell? Time will tell on that.

Yeah, that's what I've been thinking, after by b-day, the 19th of June through the end of the month. Far from certain. And by warm spell, I'm thinking multi day 85+ with DPs solidly over 60 ...63+ Doesn't even have to be a heat wave, but I don't see how we can even be much above normal in this regime - save for nightime lows being elevated by rain. Which is kind of cheating

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Miss the point: Boston is just used as an example ...we are talking about CT along with everyone else from DCA-PWM

No I didn't at all. If its upper 60's and muggy in Bos, it's 76-82 inland. Thursday will be a great example, while you guys are socked in with fog and drizzle all day we'll break out into a beautiful sunny afternoon
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No I didn't at all. If its upper 60's and muggy in Bos, it's 76-82 inland. Thursday will be a great example, while you guys are socked in with fog and drizzle all day we'll break out into a beautiful sunny afternoon

Keep in mind, the central thesis of that was that summer won't truly have begun until...

this is an extended spring for the time being.

But, alas - you may not have to wait... the 12z GFS is trying to turn on the dragon breath during the middle range. We'll see.

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yeah, I see that... It gets the 850mb to +17C for much of the area, with a 850mb height node centered over WV ...132 through 168 hours or so. If that succeeds that would be good for 2 days back to back in the high 88s with some continental dp to contend with.

THAT is true summer. It'll be in interesting to see the other 12z guidance types.

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LOL started in Greenwich and worked my way east early this morning staying ahead of the rain, just got home with some light rain falling. This is perfect nice soaker then its nothing but sun thur-sun, oh my oh my.

jugs and mugs!

Yuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuup

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sunsational

Man this pattern is just awesome isnt it? Rain then sunny weekends, except this week its sun thur and fri leading into the weekend, great stuff!

Once again the shawl wearing mountain mans area east takes the prize for warm spots of the day as clearly seen here. Congrats to mass east of the cr.

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Man this pattern is just awesome isnt it? Rain then sunny weekends, except this week its sun thur and fri leading into the weekend, great stuff!

Once again the shawl wearing mountain mans area east takes the prize for warm spots of the day as clearly seen here. Congrats to mass east of the cr.

????? Dude, I think you're looking at that in the mirror. GC is the cool spot. 66.2/60

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????? Dude, I think you're looking at that in the mirror. GC is the cool spot. 66.2/60

you forgot to bold the east part of that LOL, spin spin away Mike! Looking at that meso map its clear where the warmest temps are, from your area on east, while your special place might be an outlier.

GFS looks awesome!

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it wouldn't surprise me to see some higher totals. i don't know about 3 inches but 1.5 to 2+ might be achievable in spots. pretty moist airmass moving in and a decent jet before it weakens

okx agrees looks like they are going 1.5-2 inches around here. I think thats a solid call.

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