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Doldrums of weather heading into June


CoastalWx

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After some needed liquid gold tonight into tomorrow morning, okx upton is going balls to the walls with sunshine thur-sun temps near 80 except settling back into the mid 70s Sunday! BSE2 rolls on, man o' man what a weekend coming up and spectacular thursday and friday too!!!! Jugs and mugs, Jugs and mugs.

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All the Tolland meso sites have dews 60 or higher. KFS FTW

FWIW, I have an electric sensor that measures the temp and humidity and then I perform a calculation on the DP. I think that MADIS does this as well because all I submit to them is the temp and humidity. In any event, my DP is 62, just north of Kevin. That would correlate with the Tolland Meso's. Not sure what's happening in the valley at BDL or up in ORH, that's what I have here.

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78 was the high temp here Sunday and Monday. Yesterday was a stellar day with nice low humidity. Poor western NY hit 90...overall they have been much warmer over the last 6 weeks.

First showers just getting in here now and 67.

After some needed liquid gold tonight into tomorrow morning, okx upton is going balls to the walls with sunshine thur-sun temps near 80 except settling back into the mid 70s Sunday! BSE2 rolls on, man o' man what a weekend coming up and spectacular thursday and friday too!!!! Jugs and mugs, Jugs and mugs.

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It's interesting in a way to see this -NAO plaguing the mid-Atlantic and NE regions. In the current operational run's version of the synoptic mean what we see is a blocking of the MW heat from ever getting in here along the I-95 corridor from PWM to DCA. The -NAO is pinning a weakness/closed low SE of the Maritimes that basically back stopping the ridge from the MW from progressing east. The result is a surface ridge that is like a finger of cool extending SW from the cold NW Atlantic. Otherwise, that ridge would settle into the Bermuda position and we'd be in.

Summer won't truly begin until that configuration breaks down and allows the continental air to flood the coastal plain on true deep layer westerlies.

I mention yesterday that I was growing concerned about a -NAO summer. This would stand pretty much in the face of my own seasonal forecast if that happens; I didn't foresee that as being the case, should things pan out that way. Too early to tell.. One thing that does occur to me, we are technically in at or less than 0.0 AMO, so -NAO should be favored. Historically, the curve shows an ~ 2 to 3 decade above and below 0.0SD tendency in an ongoing oscillatory behavior. What is interesting about last winters persistent positive is the apparently correlation - not sure if that is formally researched - it had to the late last summer and autumn solar storm activity. The increased activity is shown to break down ozone in the stratosphere; ozone presence in the mean polar vortex at high altitudes is shown to preceded SSW events and warm readings over all --> -AO/-EPO/-NAO tendencies. So in a cause-and-effect sense of it the fact that last winter seemed to defeat said multi-decadal suggestion, really seems to point the sun this time. Continuing further ... the sun has been not nearly as active during the winter and early spring (though some activity has been noted, the activity did not appear to interact as heavily with the Earth's magnetism); it may be possible that the NAO is merely slipping back into its background suggestion because the solar influence has waned. ...Just in time to f* over summer weather enthusiasts.

I dunno - fun to think about. But this 77/53 with bouts of marine intrusion scenario is going to keep tucking into the I-95 corridor so long as we are plagued by west based -NAO... Even a marginal one seems to be capable of reach back SW like a bony finger of summer death, tickling the daily means cooler. I was looking at that Frankenstein model, DGEX, out through D7 and it has Ontario cooking in 93-97F heat while BOS may be stuck in the upper 60s because of this nuance in the large scale.

My hunch is that the sun will fire back up in August just to ruin next winter, too - HA!

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I'm not as familiar with terrain in those areas, but wouldn't WNW downslope much further down stream like in the foothills? I mean Jackman doesn't seem very far from Rangley and Berlin is north of the MWN massif... I sort of thought both of those spots were more like where I am on that NW periphery of the Appalachians that tend to upslope on NW flow rather than downslope.

Berlin must get some downslope from the northern Whites, but you're correct in placing Jackman and Rangeley more amidst the mts than downsloped. Jackman is 50+ miles NNE from Rangeley, enough to make for some different wx, and about 400' lower. The real N.Maine downslope, IMO, is NE Aroostook, the potato country, where places at 500' get some downsloping from the 1500'+ hills west of Rt 11 and in the Allagash/St.John country.

Living in the midst of forest, I'm shielded from some of the downslope heat by evapotranspiration. The most evident downsloping I see comes (unfortunately) in winter, when a foothills forecast for 2-4" end-of-thaw snow thump has attenuated to a dusting by the time it reaches MBY.

Of course, there's a reason why Maine's all time high temp was measured at a foothills location (105, in Bridgton, July 1911), and that another foothills location, Farmington, has touched 104.

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It's interesting in a way to see this -NAO plaguing the mid-Atlantic and NE regions. In the current operational run's version of the synoptic mean what we see is a blocking of the MW heat from ever getting in here along the I-95 corridor from PWM to DCA. The -NAO is pinning a weakness/closed low SE of the Maritimes that basically back stopping the ridge from the MW from progressing east. The result is a surface ridge that is like a finger of cool extending SW from the cold NW Atlantic. Otherwise, that ridge would settle into the Bermuda position and we'd be in.

Summer won't truly begin until that configuration breaks down and allows the continental air to flood the coastal plain on true deep layer westerlies.

I mention yesterday that I was growing concerned about a -NAO summer. This would stand pretty much in the face of my own seasonal forecast if that happens; I didn't foresee that as being the case, should things pan out that way. Too early to tell.. One thing that does occur to me, we are technically in at or less than 0.0 AMO, so -NAO should be favored. Historically, the curve shows an ~ 2 to 3 decade above and below 0.0SD tendency in an ongoing oscillatory behavior. What is interesting about last winters persistent positive is the apparently correlation - not sure if that is formally researched - it had to the late last summer and autumn solar storm activity. The increased activity is shown to break down ozone in the stratosphere; ozone presence in the mean polar vortex at high altitudes is shown to preceded SSW events and warm readings over all --> -AO/-EPO/-NAO tendencies. So in a cause-and-effect sense of it the fact that last winter seemed to defeat said multi-decadal suggestion, really seems to point the sun this time. Continuing further ... the sun has been not nearly as active during the winter and early spring (though some activity has been noted, the activity did not appear to interact as heavily with the Earth's magnetism); it may be possible that the NAO is merely slipping back into its background suggestion because the solar influence has waned. ...Just in time to f* over summer weather enthusiasts.

I dunno - fun to think about. But this 77/53 with bouts of marine intrusion scenario is going to keep tucking into the I-95 corridor so long as we are plagued by west based -NAO... Even a marginal one seems to be capable of reach back SW like a bony finger of summer death, tickling the daily means cooler. I was looking at that Frankenstein model, DGEX, out through D7 and it has Ontario cooking in 93-97F heat while BOS may be stuck in the upper 60s because of this nuance in the large scale.

My hunch is that the sun will fire back up in August just to ruin next winter, too - HA!

Good thoughts. The NAO will rise to near neutral of the models are right after the 20th so maybe that's when we get a 2-3 day warm spell? Time will tell on that.

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