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Doldrums of weather heading into June


CoastalWx

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More like just wanting extreme weather...I get that and want that, too. But heat is the one extreme weather event I could do without. I'd rather track record low maxes during the summer ;) Heat waves would be more "interesting" (I guess) though, or exciting than a high of 73F.

I just hate cool, cloudy wx in the summer. Really just cool wx in the summer period.. I dread it. Those 2 days last week when it was 60ish were awful. Thankfully things look summery from here on out

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I'm not as familiar with terrain in those areas, but wouldn't WNW downslope much further down stream like in the foothills? I mean Jackman doesn't seem very far from Rangley and Berlin is north of the MWN massif... I sort of thought both of those spots were more like where I am on that NW periphery of the Appalachians that tend to upslope on NW flow rather than downslope.

With true WNW-NW flow the foothills definitely scorch. Today we have southerly flow so north of the mtns are torching...mid level temps are also warmer the further NW you go so BTV-BML have that going for them too. Those over the top mid level heat plumes with NW flow are the scorchers for the lower elevations in the foothills though. Conway/IZG can really cook right up through BGR-CAR.
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I think he did mention the fact it would feature clouds and rain. Spin fail

FTR (record), both of you were worried that it might be a crappy day as the front slowed down. Objective analysis FTW. :)

Why are you giving him crap? Wednesday may very well be crappy if that front slows like models have it.

Speaking of that front. It really starts to crawl east once it gets to New York state. It might linger around for a while and be a nuisance.

I'm only forecasting off of what the models are putting out. Don't forecast so that my wished are fulfilled.

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I want the seasons to perform as seasons..I want winters brutally cold, and heavily snowy, I want springs to be nice and sunny and mild, I want summers to be hot and humid with plenty of storms and severe damage, and I want autumn to be cool turning colder and cloudy most of the time

if I wanted summer in winter I'd move to DC, and if I wanted winter in summer I'd move to Nova Scotia

Hmmm well, let's break this list of expectations down:

1) "I want winters brutally cold, and heavily snow" Assessment, setting one up for a major let down. "Brutal cold, and heavily snowy" is an anomaly for this geographical region. Anyone that has a salt of awareness wrt to statistics and climate for the New England region knows that outside of the mountains (and Mt Tolland doesn't count) our winters means point to performances that feature tolerable cold, with occasional bouts with snow as a much more objective and realistic expectation. Once in a while something more dramatic may take place, but are statistically less common and therefore, not within the performance expectation.

2) "I want springs to be nice and sunny and mild" Assessment, don't we all, but again, setting one up for a major let down. Balmy Aprils like this last one are about as statistically uncommon as the DJFM that preceded when looking back across 300 years of climo. If you had said, 'I want springs to be gloomy and cool and wet, while west of the ALB is taunting and teasing us with tornadoes and warmth, that would be vastly more reasonable.

3) "I want summers to be hot and humid with plenty of storms and severe damage" Assessment, three words, "temperate climate zone", which again, is scientifically derived, code for 'guess what, we don't get to have hot summers with severe damage'. ;) Again, this is notwithstanding an anomaly here and there, but there is no way in heck that what you said is an appropriate expectation in New England.

4) "I want autumn to be cool turning colder and cloudy most of the time" Assessment, this one isn't bad actually. In fact, I'd say it's down right good. However, you blew it! Because you could have said, 'I want autumn .... with an awareness that it is possible to get a hurricane', but you missed the boat there.

Man... I can't imagine what tortured existence it must be to be like to be Kevin's brain. My suggestion, seek counsiling.

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I should've known you'd be reading and would swoop in to correct my "absolute" statement. lol

I've read about some of that stuff too, but I'm pretty sure Kevin was referring to the bottom-up mix out method. I've had plenty of summer mornings where I was clear at sunrise and had the mid-level deck move in during the daytime...I think subsidence better explains what happened today. There's some H5 NVA moving N to S through New England today.

Ah hahahahaha... Yep.

I know, I know.

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Hmmm well, let's break this list of expectations down:

1) "I want winters brutally cold, and heavily snow" Assessment, setting one up for a major let down. "Brutal cold, and heavily snowy" is an anomaly for this geographical region. Anyone that has a salt of awareness wrt to statistics and climate for the New England region knows that outside of the mountains (and Mt Tolland doesn't count) our winters means point to performances that feature tolerable cold, with occasional bouts with snow as a much more objective and realistic expectation. Once in a while something more dramatic may take place, but are statistically less common and therefore, not within the performance expectation.

2) "I want springs to be nice and sunny and mild" Assessment, don't we all, but again, setting one up for a major let down. Balmy Aprils like this last one are about as statistically uncommon as the DJFM that preceded when looking back across 300 years of climo. If you had said, 'I want springs to be gloomy and cool and wet, while west of the ALB is taunting and teasing us with tornadoes and warmth, that would be vastly more reasonable.

3) "I want summers to be hot and humid with plenty of storms and severe damage" Assessment, three words, "temperate climate zone", which again, is scientifically derived, code for 'guess what, we don't get to have hot summers with severe damage'. ;) Again, this is notwithstanding an anomaly here and there, but there is no way in heck that what you said is an appropriate expectation in New England.

4) "I want autumn to be cool turning colder and cloudy most of the time" Assessment, this one isn't bad actually. In fact, I'd say it's down right good. However, you blew it! Because you could have said, 'I want autumn .... with an awareness that it is possible to get a hurricane', but you missed the boat there.

Man... I can't imagine what tortured existence it must be to be Kevin's brain. My suggestion, seek counsiling.

Climo says we experience each one of these conditions every ten years or so, fully within reason.

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LOL... well played.

Hmmm well, let's break this list of expectations down:

1) "I want winters brutally cold, and heavily snow" Assessment, setting one up for a major let down. "Brutal cold, and heavily snowy" is an anomaly for this geographical region. Anyone that has a salt of awareness wrt to statistics and climate for the New England region knows that outside of the mountains (and Mt Tolland doesn't count) our winters means point to performances that feature tolerable cold, with occasional bouts with snow as a much more objective and realistic expectation. Once in a while something more dramatic may take place, but are statistically less common and therefore, not within the performance expectation.

2) "I want springs to be nice and sunny and mild" Assessment, don't we all, but again, setting one up for a major let down. Balmy Aprils like this last one are about as statistically uncommon as the DJFM that preceded when looking back across 300 years of climo. If you had said, 'I want springs to be gloomy and cool and wet, while west of the ALB is taunting and teasing us with tornadoes and warmth, that would be vastly more reasonable.

3) "I want summers to be hot and humid with plenty of storms and severe damage" Assessment, three words, "temperate climate zone", which again, is scientifically derived, code for 'guess what, we don't get to have hot summers with severe damage'. ;) Again, this is notwithstanding an anomaly here and there, but there is no way in heck that what you said is an appropriate expectation in New England.

4) "I want autumn to be cool turning colder and cloudy most of the time" Assessment, this one isn't bad actually. In fact, I'd say it's down right good. However, you blew it! Because you could have said, 'I want autumn .... with an awareness that it is possible to get a hurricane', but you missed the boat there.

Man... I can't imagine what tortured existence it must be to be like to be Kevin's brain. My suggestion, seek counsiling.

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Hmmm well, let's break this list of expectations down:

1) "I want winters brutally cold, and heavily snow" Assessment, setting one up for a major let down. "Brutal cold, and heavily snowy" is an anomaly for this geographical region. Anyone that has a salt of awareness wrt to statistics and climate for the New England region knows that outside of the mountains (and Mt Tolland doesn't count) our winters means point to performances that feature tolerable cold, with occasional bouts with snow as a much more objective and realistic expectation. Once in a while something more dramatic may take place, but are statistically less common and therefore, not within the performance expectation.

2) "I want springs to be nice and sunny and mild" Assessment, don't we all, but again, setting one up for a major let down. Balmy Aprils like this last one are about as statistically uncommon as the DJFM that preceded when looking back across 300 years of climo. If you had said, 'I want springs to be gloomy and cool and wet, while west of the ALB is taunting and teasing us with tornadoes and warmth, that would be vastly more reasonable.

3) "I want summers to be hot and humid with plenty of storms and severe damage" Assessment, three words, "temperate climate zone", which again, is scientifically derived, code for 'guess what, we don't get to have hot summers with severe damage'. ;) Again, this is notwithstanding an anomaly here and there, but there is no way in heck that what you said is an appropriate expectation in New England.

4) "I want autumn to be cool turning colder and cloudy most of the time" Assessment, this one isn't bad actually. In fact, I'd say it's down right good. However, you blew it! Because you could have said, 'I want autumn .... with an awareness that it is possible to get a hurricane', but you missed the boat there.

Man... I can't imagine what tortured existence it must be to be like to be Kevin's brain. My suggestion, seek counsiling.

Seek spell check

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Hmmm "...A cloud can be warmed by solar radiation and longwave emission from the earth's surface"

I think it's possible to have some solar effects...both directly and indirectly with that quote right there. However imo, it has a small impact when compared to something like subsidence which is the big reason mid level clouds evaporate.

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I think it's possible to have some solar effects...both directly and indirectly with that quote right there. However imo, it has a small impact when compared to something like subsidence which is the big reason mid level clouds evaporate.

Yeah ... I guess in the absence of any NVA or other imposing force, if there is just a gossamer alto-strata type cloud deck and the sun is shining June style it would be detectable

But I agree, if NVA or some other force comes along it's probably order of magnitude or more proficient at doing the deed.

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Yeah I'm just bustin' your balls... luckily it looks like just one day. I welcome the cool air and each day we go by without upper 80s is a win in my book.

I'm finding this low 80s and dews in the 60s to be a bit too warm/sticky for my tastes. But looks like we'll warm up next week for you guys that enjoy it :)

Heavy heavy Wednesday rain on the NAM... but multiply that by 0.6 for more realistic amounts.

I hope that doesn't verify. It would make the drought conditions even worse.

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It can though, but it has to do with aerosol rarefied by solar min, versus maxes. The subtle variations in the magnetic interplay between the sun and Earth depending on which is correlated to minute variations in cosmic ray bombardment, which is heavily scienced to be related to the population density of cloud condensation nuclei - those micro-physics, however, plays out over time - not a single afternoon.

As far as affecting the thermodynamic layout of the day, I did read somewhere that the whole of the atmospheric cloud domain is in fact effected by tidal variations in the height field, which by logical derivative would require that summer has a greater atmospheric "slosh". Look this up and make me a liar ( haha) but the diurnal bulge in the mid levels is responding to the expanding boundary layer thickness below, and would certainly effect the condensation versus evaporation of cloud material. Interesting.

That said, if your inundated, that's a different story. We had plenty of sky-lights in the area this morning though.

Oh.

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I wonder when he'll admit that he's totally blown the June forecast? Hot,dry, drought conditions!!!! Wet and Cool my little Blizzy friend, wet and cool.

No question June has certainly started off much cooler than normal and quite a few people have nailed this thus far:

MonthTDeptNRCC.png

Not completely sure I'd call June "wet", except across Maine where they have had a quite a bit of rainfall. Precipitation for much of our region is running anywhere from slightly below-average to slightly-above with the driest areas being extreme eastern NY into extreme western MA and extreme western CT. It will be interesting to see though how much rainfall we receive the next two days. I'm sure several locations may pick up anywhere from 1-2'' of rainfall...maybe some isolated higher totals.

MonthPDeptNRCC.png

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After some scattered showers tonight/tomorrow..Thursday looks like one of those days where BOS is locked in with clouds and drizzle and west of ORH the sun comes out for a nice day and 70's..possibly Friday too

Good chunk of CT tonight sees around 1'' of rain with many locations probably even coming close to 1.25'' or so...maybe spot amounts close to 1.50'' to 2''.

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LOL...most places see less than .50 esp east of the river..all the lift is to our north,,and the high to the east is ridging in.. 1-2 inches of rain lol

I said MOST places get around 1'' of rain or so with many probably getting around 1.25'' or so...and SOME 1.50'' to 2'' amounts,

I disagree about the strongest lift going to our north...there looks to be a decent amount of low-level lift over CT and looks like a secondary warm front to our south will help to increase isentropic lift and not to mention development of a weak sfc low to our south.

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