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Doldrums of weather heading into June


CoastalWx

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I wouldn't mind another nice soaking. NAM and SREFs would be nice, but I think they may be too far east.

yeah any rains this time of year are welcomed. seems like the NAM just doesn't see the roadblock out east. this looked good a few days ago but is quickly turning to poo.

goes hand in hand with the way the weather looked for the start of this week several days ago vs reality. for a while it looked like we could possibly torch for a day or two early this week but man...that has just failed.

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yeah any rains this time of year are welcomed. seems like the NAM just doesn't see the roadblock out east. this looked good a few days ago but is quickly turning to poo.

goes hand in hand with the way the weather looked for the start of this week several days ago vs reality. for a while it looked like we could possibly torch for a day or two early this week but man...that has just failed.

Makes you wonder how the next torch will perform as modeled.

On the other hand, it's great having comfortable wx.

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looks like it could be a healthy rain event for some - not sure how far east it gets but LL to maybe you gets a good soaking i think.

IMO the most rains will fall west of the river I could see DXR to LL to maybe as far east as MRG getting over an inch..But here to ORH..just scattered showers..maybe .25 or so if we 're lucky while you guys farther east and south might be able to lay out

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I'm wondering if this may evolve into a -NAO summer. Yet, the operational versions keep trying to raise heights ...seemingly to hint at heat wave potential in the extended. I suppose one could evolve, and then still be absorbed into an overall background cooler signal.

Looking at the last week on the CPC site, the NAO has recovered from that impressive nadir of a week ago, by some half that mass, but it has a while to go before being neutral - not sure at one point in the curve should we expect to see a meaningful rising of the heights over eastern N/A. Seasonally the index doesn't correspond quite the same as winter, either... But that aside, it may be that the operational runs are over-doing the eastern ridge as a response to the steady climb out of the cellar currently ongoing. If the NAO neutralizes to 0.0, or even remains slightly negative, if it has any effective influence on the circulation system et al, one would be inclined to think more normal temps and precipitation - but you never know.

Anomalies happen in the 2nd the 3rd order, too.

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I'm wondering if this may evolve into a -NAO summer. Yet, the operational versions keep trying to raise heights ...seemingly to hint at heat wave potential in the extended. I suppose one could evolve, and then still be absorbed into an overall background cooler signal.

Looking at the last week on the CPC site, the NAO has recovered from that impressive nadir of a week ago, by some half that mass, but it has a while to go before being neutral - not sure at one point in the curve should we expect to see a meaningful rising of the heights over eastern N/A. Seasonally the index doesn't correspond quite the same as winter, either... But that aside, it may be that the operational runs are over-doing the eastern ridge as a response to the steady climb out of the cellar currently ongoing. If the NAO neutralizes to 0.0, or even remains slightly negative, if it has any effective influence on the circulation system et al, one would be inclined to think more normal temps and precipitation - but you never know.

Anomalies happen in the 2nd the 3rd order, too.

Yeah the models seem to want to keep a neutral to slightly negative NAO. It will be interesting to see if we can keep this pattern of warm ups failing.

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IMO the most rains will fall west of the river I could see DXR to LL to maybe as far east as MRG getting over an inch..But here to ORH..just scattered showers..maybe .25 or so if we 're lucky while you guys farther east and south might be able to lay out

I bet you get more than that. Either way, it's an awful for day for you..might as well let it pour.

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Looking at the monthly so far, the big 4 are in the -2 to -4 ish range. This week won't really dent that. So it will take a very warm second half of June to flip this month above normal. Normals are rising rapidly still. I don't we go more than 0-1 above anywhere if that.

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You sure about that? I thought I saw some patches of snow holding on in Pete's glen on the sat pic. ;)

Hah... But seriously this is why Pete is the only one who didn't find last winter to be atrocious. Because his glen holds snow absurdly long and it is legitimate. But a very localized thing. Around here I have poor conditions for holding snow with a lot of sun exposure and a lot of wind that blows it away. But hey my evergreen hedge row is making very slow progress...around 2018 I may hold snow like Pete. :)

GC has been the hot spot this early warm season. Looks like a +10 for you yesterday, ORH had a +6 and was the warmest out of the big 4. Your highs on sunny days are consistently warmer than mine here, seabreeze for the win!

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Brilliant sun here, slightly milky blue. Low was nice at 55.

It's interesting on sat. The NW Atlantic is trying to retrograde associated with lingering/vestigial -NAO, meanwhile, the mid west heat dome is trying to press east.

The two are butting up against one another right over SNE , and that is generating this mid level cloud contamination. Yeah, I'd go pessimistic some on previous temp and sky cover ideas base upon this observation.

This on the other hand ... like Saturday showed, June sun can even burn off mid level activity, so this could alleviate some by mid afternoon.

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