ctsnowstorm628 Posted June 6, 2012 Share Posted June 6, 2012 I am buying it because it has been consistently shown on the Euro, GFS and Canadian and now the SREF shows it. Yes I know the SREF is based on the NAM, but it is still featuring a greater than 50% of measurable precip for the late Saturday timeframe. And it is because of this disturbance for the late Saturday and parts of Sunday that I disagree with the timing of your mini torch. I think that disturbance may keep temps down Saturday, but it's out of here by Sunday which is when I said it would start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 6, 2012 Author Share Posted June 6, 2012 I think that disturbance may keep temps down Saturday, but it's out of here by Sunday which is when I said it would start. All models have something either Saturday or Saturday night it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 6, 2012 Author Share Posted June 6, 2012 Low 60s now with sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 6, 2012 Author Share Posted June 6, 2012 Still not sold on torch with models having onshore flow early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted June 6, 2012 Share Posted June 6, 2012 Cool, cloudy, showers. Just another day during the BSE2 !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted June 6, 2012 Share Posted June 6, 2012 All models have something either Saturday or Saturday night it seems. Saturday may end up being not so nice of a day, actually. It may start off nice, but clouds should increase with some showers for someone by the afternoon hours. I still do think we salvage Sunday afternoon as the disturbance exits and we get into the warmer airmass. I do agree with Chris that Monday-Tuesday should be the 'peak' of the warmer weather with temps maybe creeping near 90 somewhere in SNE, but I think even if we don't get a FROPA, we will gradually lower temps into the low to mid 80s by mid to late week as 1000-500mb thicknesses gradually lower to near 570dm after being in the 580s Monday-maybe Wednesday. After Tuesday or Wednesday I don't think it's a torch by any means for June standards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 6, 2012 Author Share Posted June 6, 2012 Saturday may end up being not so nice of a day, actually. It may start off nice, but clouds should increase with some showers for someone by the afternoon hours. I still do think we salvage Sunday afternoon as the disturbance exits and we get into the warmer airmass. I do agree with Chris that Monday-Tuesday should be the 'peak' of the warmer weather with temps maybe creeping near 90 somewhere in SNE, but I think even if we don't get a FROPA, we will gradually lower temps into the low to mid 80s by mid to late week as 1000-500mb thicknesses gradually lower to near 570dm after being in the 580s Monday-maybe Wednesday. After Tuesday or Wednesday I don't think it's a torch by any means for June standards. I'm not quite sold on 90 early next week...except for maybe BDL. I'm not convinced of any heat like that lasting longer than a day...basically the day of fropa where winds can go more S or SW. Maybe Tuesday and/or Wednesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted June 6, 2012 Share Posted June 6, 2012 Still not sold on torch with models having onshore flow early next week. Agree with you there, which is why I extended my time frame to include the second half of next week. (For temps at or above 80) I hope you are right about Sunday, but I'm not entirely sold. The Euro wants to keep some form of showers going all day Sunday and the GFS wants to send another little disturbance down through New York State and out south of Southern New England. But once we get through the weekend, the ridge really builds in through Monday afternoon and temperatures should be allowed to increase heading into the work week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 6, 2012 Author Share Posted June 6, 2012 Agree with you there, which is why I extended my time frame to include the second half of next week. (For temps at or above 80) I hope you are right about Sunday, but I'm not entirely sold. The Euro wants to keep some form of showers going all day Sunday and the GFS wants to send another little disturbance down through New York State and out south of Southern New England. But once we get through the weekend, the ridge really builds in through Monday afternoon and temperatures should be allowed to increase heading into the work week. What did I say about Sunday? With that front nearby, may see a few shwrs or tstms possibly clouds too. It very well may be nice and that stuff is shifted south. Too early to write it off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted June 6, 2012 Share Posted June 6, 2012 Agree with you there, which is why I extended my time frame to include the second half of next week. (For temps at or above 80) I hope you are right about Sunday, but I'm not entirely sold. The Euro wants to keep some form of showers going all day Sunday and the GFS wants to send another little disturbance down through New York State and out south of Southern New England. But once we get through the weekend, the ridge really builds in through Monday afternoon and temperatures should be allowed to increase heading into the work week. Do agree that Sunday could iffy during the morning in some spots. Don't have Euro data, so I really could look at much other than the E-WALL maps..but if the Euro's right, I could definitely see 80s right through next week away from the coast. I'm not quite sold on 90 early next week...except for maybe BDL. I'm not convinced of any heat like that lasting longer than a day...basically the day of fropa where winds can go more S or SW. Maybe Tuesday and/or Wednesday? Yeah it should be moderately humid, so I think maybe Tuesday would be the day..maybe Wednesday if timing changes. And yeah, the valley is pretty much the only location I see getting to 90, if any where with a pretty much due 180 wind on the FROPA day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted June 6, 2012 Share Posted June 6, 2012 Transient warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 6, 2012 Share Posted June 6, 2012 Saturday may end up being not so nice of a day, actually. It may start off nice, but clouds should increase with some showers for someone by the afternoon hours. I still do think we salvage Sunday afternoon as the disturbance exits and we get into the warmer airmass. I do agree with Chris that Monday-Tuesday should be the 'peak' of the warmer weather with temps maybe creeping near 90 somewhere in SNE, but I think even if we don't get a FROPA, we will gradually lower temps into the low to mid 80s by mid to late week as 1000-500mb thicknesses gradually lower to near 570dm after being in the 580s Monday-maybe Wednesday. After Tuesday or Wednesday I don't think it's a torch by any means for June standards. LOL....that narrows things down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 6, 2012 Author Share Posted June 6, 2012 Do agree that Sunday could iffy during the morning in some spots. Don't have Euro data, so I really could look at much other than the E-WALL maps..but if the Euro's right, I could definitely see 80s right through next week away from the coast. Yeah it should be moderately humid, so I think maybe Tuesday would be the day..maybe Wednesday if timing changes. And yeah, the valley is pretty much the only location I see getting to 90, if any where with a pretty much due 180 wind on the FROPA day. I'm not denying it...it could be like 80s with dews in the 60s. It's just that the way the pattern looks...I'm not quite sold on temps in the high 80s to 90 for a several days like some think. I wouldn't rule it out, but models don't really have that look right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 6, 2012 Author Share Posted June 6, 2012 In the interior...torch would be 90. 85 and humid wouldn't qualify as a torch. But, it would boost night time lows for those with a torch fetish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 6, 2012 Share Posted June 6, 2012 Still not sold on torch with models having onshore flow early next week. This will be just like that one we had in mid may..BDL with be in the 88-91 area..and there will be Pm seabreezes that may penetrate inland somewhat. Tip is right though..we are moving twds an extended period of above normal temps, humidity, and summer as far out as the ensembles/models go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 6, 2012 Share Posted June 6, 2012 Transient warmth. Transgender hair Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 6, 2012 Author Share Posted June 6, 2012 This will be just like that one we had in mid may..BDL with be in the 88-91 area..and there will be Pm seabreezes that may penetrate inland somewhat. Tip is right though..we are moving twds an extended period of above normal temps, humidity, and summer as far out as the ensembles/models go Maybe for a day or two down at the tarmac there. Not really impressed right now for extended high temps. It will be more summery yes, but big prolonged heat stays west for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 6, 2012 Share Posted June 6, 2012 Maybe for a day or two down at the tarmac there. Not really impressed right now for extended high temps. It will be more summery yes, but big prolonged heat stays west for now. I haven't seen anyone talk big prolonged heat..just above to well above with high dews. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted June 6, 2012 Share Posted June 6, 2012 LOL....that narrows things down lol take a look...models are all over the place. NAM has showers across SNE while the GFS has them up into NNE..that's all I can say with confidence right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 6, 2012 Share Posted June 6, 2012 lol take a look...models are all over the place. NAM has showers across SNE while the GFS has them up into NNE..that's all I can say with confidence right now. Someone somewhere in the US will have showers...that's all we can say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tstorm723 Posted June 6, 2012 Share Posted June 6, 2012 Not too boring here at work in Webster...torrential downpour. Second cell of the day here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted June 6, 2012 Share Posted June 6, 2012 I haven't seen anyone talk big prolonged heat..just above to well above with high dews. I could inland CT being like 82/63 through next weekend, with warmer conditions Monday-maybe Wednesday. For WINY radio in NE CT I just went 85 for Monday and 85-90 for Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted June 6, 2012 Share Posted June 6, 2012 Someone somewhere in the US will have showers...that's all we can say I was talking about SNE and you know that. Don't try to twist stuff I say LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 6, 2012 Share Posted June 6, 2012 I could inland CT being like 82/63 through next weekend, with warmer conditions Monday-maybe Wednesday. For WINY radio in NE CT I just went 85 for Monday and 85-90 for Tuesday. INY radio? thats disturbing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 6, 2012 Share Posted June 6, 2012 Hopefully all those hvy downpours stay away from here. We had another one last night..If there's no thunder with them..stay the F away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted June 6, 2012 Share Posted June 6, 2012 I hope its hot and dry here the rest of the month, Let someone else have the rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted June 6, 2012 Share Posted June 6, 2012 Do agree that Sunday could iffy during the morning in some spots. Don't have Euro data, so I really could look at much other than the E-WALL maps..but if the Euro's right, I could definitely see 80s right through next week away from the coast. ... FWIW, it's not perfect and there is a delay, but try the ECMWF links on my link site below...I do screen grabs from WU for what they offer (which isn't perfect), but at least you can pull up a map directly and look at an animation quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted June 6, 2012 Share Posted June 6, 2012 INY radio? thats disturbing why lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted June 6, 2012 Share Posted June 6, 2012 FWIW, it's not perfect and there is a delay, but try the ECMWF links on my link site below...I do screen grabs from WU for what they offer (which isn't perfect), but at least you can pull up a map directly and look at an animation quickly. Good stuff, I forgot about this! I'll bookmark it when I get home, thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted June 6, 2012 Share Posted June 6, 2012 Good stuff, I forgot about this! I'll bookmark it when I get home, thanks! It's a work in progress so let me know if there are any modifications or something you'd like to see and I'll see if I can find it or script it. I just like being able to link to something directly instead of having to dig around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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