CoastalWx Posted June 4, 2012 Author Share Posted June 4, 2012 GFS is coming in as a torch for early next week. Lets see if euro agrees. I do think one or two days could be very warm to hot...especially interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 4, 2012 Share Posted June 4, 2012 LOL. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 4, 2012 Share Posted June 4, 2012 GFS is coming in as a torch for early next week. Lets see if euro agrees. I do think one or two days could be very warm to hot...especially interior. Yeah, I talked about that extensively yesterday; pattern/regime change is actually already underway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 4, 2012 Author Share Posted June 4, 2012 Lol I could fill the page with your comments as well as Ginx. It was LL and Kevin vs the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 4, 2012 Author Share Posted June 4, 2012 Yeah, I talked about that extensively yesterday; pattern/regime change is actually already underway. Yeah it will definitely change, but how much and how long of a big warm push will it be? Euro had s-se winds practically through the period. GFS has ore of a W push. I do think the warm air will make an entrance of some sort even into ern MA. Could be a battle...maybe MCS action Monday Night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted June 4, 2012 Share Posted June 4, 2012 We will need 7-10 day stretch of torch weather to dry it out up here, Going to be a long process Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 4, 2012 Author Share Posted June 4, 2012 When BDL struggles for 60 you know it's dam cold. They may have hit it around 9-10am, but currently 56 now. Kevin is likely 49. Notice he has not posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 4, 2012 Author Share Posted June 4, 2012 It's possible a large portion of the US is very warm come the 20th or so. Some of that may get into SNE I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 4, 2012 Share Posted June 4, 2012 How did the 74 work out for litchfield, ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 4, 2012 Author Share Posted June 4, 2012 Looks like Saturday still isn't all that warm on the euro quite yet. Warmer inland on Saunday and then much warmer Monday...especially BTV area as over the top heat dome moves in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 4, 2012 Author Share Posted June 4, 2012 Looks like it gets warm to hot for 36-48hrs. I can buy that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 4, 2012 Share Posted June 4, 2012 looks warmer than 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 4, 2012 Author Share Posted June 4, 2012 looks warmer than 0z Looks more like the ensembles. Still can't get a multi day surge thanks to the trough in the east, but maybe it drives a few MCS to the south-southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted June 4, 2012 Share Posted June 4, 2012 Looks more like the ensembles. Still can't get a multi day surge thanks to the trough in the east, but maybe it drives a few MCS to the south-southeast. Careful you'll get WW all excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 4, 2012 Share Posted June 4, 2012 euro flat out toasty mon-wed-ish next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 4, 2012 Share Posted June 4, 2012 Looks more like the ensembles. Still can't get a multi day surge thanks to the trough in the east, but maybe it drives a few MCS to the south-southeast. Yeah, I'd like to see a convincing +NAO signaled and we don't have that just yet. What we have is a +2 recovery in the overall index that barely brings the domain to 0.0. The current NAO block is dismantling very fast, though. It was 580dm or so as near as yesterday over Baffin Island-Greenland (classic West baser that we couldn't buy in winter ), but now has decayed to 570 and change, shrunk in areal coverage, continues to do so, as it is slipping/retrograding SW through the D. Straight in route to merging with the central N./A ridge axis. That synoptic evolution was heavily agreed upon by all the models, regardless of type, creed, race or religion. As a twist of circulation system luck, the Pac wants to send a trough signal into western N/A. Normally I'd refer to that as an evolving negative PNA, but the June correlation off the PNA has been statistically shown to be N/S (*No skill). In fact, CDC doesn't even correlate it with the other teleconnectors during JJA. Anyway, it doesn't matter though... It's a -PNAP pattern, versus the current at least tendency for a +PNAP pattern. By PNAP, "Perennial North American Pattern". The PNAP is the average perennial pattern over N/A, which favors modest ridging in the west, trough coupled in the E. All these various amplitudes that run through it in the dailies, monthlies, ...yearlies, they are all just permutations/SDs of that where the (x1-xn)/n create that configuration. So a 0 PNAP would mean low amplitude western ridge configuration. It makes sense fluid dynamically because of the Rockies cordillera. So after the primer ... that trough arriving in the west does trigger a bit of a Sonoran release event, but since the NAO is really not committing to a positive SD, that's limiting the expulsion out of the deep SW of that cT air. There is some there, though. I keep seeing random ECM operational runs with pockets of +21C air meandering up through the GL, upper OV into Ontario. But the NAO's refusal to really go positive is allowing heights to sag too much just off-shore. That creates a "tuck pattern" for us, where the warm conveyor run N of the area and we get a counter-current of weak back-doors and/or general resistance to moving a deeper mass of the cT air in here. That last episode of heat did exactly the same damn thing, and was modeled to tuck for the first 2 days. That caused a lot of the area to not make it to the party, or limit their stay. If the NAO slips more positive, that sagging nagger off-shore would tend to fill, and then the dragon breath would blow right at us. Whether it gets in here or not, the late middle range and early extended period looks to have heat advisory level stuff for the ORD-BUF corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 4, 2012 Author Share Posted June 4, 2012 Yeah, I'd like to see a convincing +NAO signaled and we don't have that just yet. What we have is a +2 recovery in the overall index that barely brings the domain to 0.0. The current NAO block is dismantling very fast, though. It was 580dm or so as near as yesterday over Baffin Island-Greenland (classic West baser that we couldn't buy in winter ), but now has decayed to 570 and change, shrunk in areal coverage, continues to do so, as it is slipping/retrograding SW through the D. Straight in route to merging with the central N./A ridge axis. That synoptic evolution was heavily agreed upon by all the models, regardless of type, creed, race or religion. As a twist of circulation system luck, the Pac wants to send a trough signal into western N/A. Normally I'd refer to that as an evolving negative PNA, but the June correlation off the PNA has been statistically shown to be N/S (*No skill). In fact, CDC doesn't even correlate it with the other teleconnectors during JJA. Anyway, it doesn't matter though... It's a -PNAP pattern, versus the current at least tendency for a +PNAP pattern. By PNAP, "Perennial North American Pattern". The PNAP is the average perennial pattern over N/A, which favors modest ridging in the west, trough coupled in the E. All these various amplitudes that run through it in the dailies, monthlies, ...yearlies, they are all just permutations/SDs of that where the (x1-xn)/n create that configuration. So a 0 PNAP would mean low amplitude western ridge configuration. It makes sense fluid dynamically because of the Rockies cordillera. So after the primer ... that trough arriving in the west does trigger a bit of a Sonoran release event, but since the NAO is really not committing to a positive SD, that's limiting the expulsion out of the deep SW of that cT air. There is some there, though. I keep seeing random ECM operational runs with pockets of +21C air meandering up through the GL, upper OV into Ontario. But the NAO's refusal to really go positive is allowing heights to sag too much just off-shore. That creates a "tuck pattern" for us, where the warm conveyor run N of the area and we get a counter-current of weak back-doors and/or general resistance to moving a deeper mass of the cT air in here. That last episode of heat did exactly the same damn thing, and was modeled to tuck for the first 2 days. That caused a lot of the area to not make it to the party, or limit their stay. If the NAO slips more positive, that sagging nagger off-shore would tend to fill, and then the dragon breath would blow right at us. Whether it gets in here or not, the late middle range and early extended period looks to have heat advisory level stuff for the ORD-BUF corridor. I think it will eventually go + enough in the extended to at least bring some heat in, especially with a -PNA. I'm just a little gun shy here in ern areas this time of year because it doesn't take much for heat to be a fail as we all know. But for now, it looks like a 36-48 hr period of very warm wx next week...depending on where you are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted June 4, 2012 Share Posted June 4, 2012 Man, the Euro is a sight for warm eyes, looks awesome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 4, 2012 Share Posted June 4, 2012 Man, the Euro is a sight for warm eyes, looks awesome! fantastic beach weather coming up, hope it holds. One thing this offshore storm has done is drop the near shore SSTs pretty quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted June 4, 2012 Share Posted June 4, 2012 fantastic beach weather coming up, hope it holds. One thing this offshore storm has done is drop the near shore SSTs pretty quickly. I was shocked how warm the sound has been so early, like tolerable. Im sure it will be different this weekend, but to be so warm in May was impressive. Good call on the snow dusting the prezies! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 4, 2012 Share Posted June 4, 2012 I was shocked how warm the sound has been so early, like tolerable. Im sure it will be different this weekend, but too be so warm in May was impressive. Good call on the snow dusting the prezies! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted June 4, 2012 Share Posted June 4, 2012 Ouch! Brother in Laws striper tourney last weekend, 42lber took first place, 37 2nd and 28 3rd, 42lbs is big around here, damn big and it was blowing like crazy friday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 4, 2012 Share Posted June 4, 2012 Ouch! Brother in Laws striper tourney last weekend, 42lber took first place, 37 2nd and 28 3rd, 42lbs is big around here, damn big and it was blowing like crazy friday afternoon. Nice! Yea everyone was raving last week how warm the water was. I go and its your nuts in your throat cold, figures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 4, 2012 Share Posted June 4, 2012 I also think the Euro is walloping the eastern ridge too much beyond D7... This is my biggest contention with the Euro these days. I mean, all models intrinsically suck beyond D5.5, sure. But the Euro's bias is particularly egregious to me. It keeps taking innocuous S/W at D 5, and turning them in carving menaces by D7. This run is no different. It takes a rather small wave over the N Rockies/Manatoba, and turns it into a progressive sup-polar vortex without any input from any other device. It just sort of goes, up, better engineer one! Going back many months I have noticed the Euro doing this with that 5-8 day range. It loves to carve weak entities into monsters over the NE U.S. I am 100% confident that tonight's run will start the process of backing off on the polar boundary placement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 4, 2012 Share Posted June 4, 2012 Looks more like the ensembles. Still can't get a multi day surge thanks to the trough in the east, but maybe it drives a few MCS to the south-southeast. looks like 3 days to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted June 4, 2012 Share Posted June 4, 2012 LOL. Lol lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted June 4, 2012 Share Posted June 4, 2012 Man, the Euro is a sight for warm eyes, looks awesome! Transient warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 4, 2012 Author Share Posted June 4, 2012 looks like 3 days to me It would be three days if the front slowed down. Not sure how Wednesday is with the front overhead. Monday and Tuesday do look warm to hot..especially inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted June 4, 2012 Share Posted June 4, 2012 Transient warmth. Yes, the warmth has been very transient this year:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 4, 2012 Share Posted June 4, 2012 Just home from a long, tough last 2 days. Had a downpour this AM in far NW Jersey then sun/cloud mix and temps got 68-70 as we went to the cemetary in Easton, Pa. Looks like our high here was in the mid 50's..so no 40's..though now it's down to 48.2 miserable degrees. Good news is each day from here on out get s a little better,,warmer and more sun each day..and we're rewarded with a nice warm weekend, and then a heat wave next week. The worst of this misery is now over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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