MJO812 Posted July 11, 2012 Share Posted July 11, 2012 I don't trust long range forecasting, especially after last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 11, 2012 Share Posted July 11, 2012 I don't trust long range forecasting, especially after last winter. stop paying attention to joe bastardi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted July 11, 2012 Share Posted July 11, 2012 Dynamic cooling in Oct? Puuuleeese! This was clearly the result of cold air advection (perhaps not at the level of typical winter standards, but certainly by late Oct. ones, nightime temps. had dropped to the upper teens and lower 20's at many upstate NY obs. sites). And recheck your precip. stats. Islip reported 1.90 inches of precip. on the 29th/30th and most other sites in Nassau and Suffolk reported between 1.5 and 2" of melted precip. Campare that with Yorktown Heights, an inland location in northern Westchester which had 11.0 inches of snow, but only 1.85" of melted precip., no more/no less than the LI locations. If you are talking about the Historical Blizzard that brought 6.8 inches to the airport in Allentown but 11.2 inches in South Allentown that was very strong dynamics that were in place which brought the colder air from above down to the surface in the heavier precipitation. When the precipitation was lighter it had turned back to rain (specifically referring to Allentown now) ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 11, 2012 Share Posted July 11, 2012 stop paying attention to joe bastardi He's better than Henry M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted July 11, 2012 Share Posted July 11, 2012 Dynamic cooling in Oct? Puuuleeese! This was clearly the result of cold air advection (perhaps not at the level of typical winter standards, but certainly by late Oct. ones, nightime temps. had dropped to the upper teens and lower 20's at many upstate NY obs. sites). And recheck your precip. stats. Islip reported 1.90 inches of precip. on the 29th/30th and most other sites in Nassau and Suffolk reported between 1.5 and 2" of melted precip. Campare that with Yorktown Heights, an inland location in northern Westchester which had 11.0 inches of snow, but only 1.85" of melted precip., no more/no less than the LI locations. Long Island was in a less favorable position with that storm than interior areas. Once the initial band of heavy snow came through, the steadier snow bands focused further inland, with warmer 850mb temps in Long Island than further inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diego Posted July 11, 2012 Share Posted July 11, 2012 If you are talking about the Historical Blizzard that brought 6.8 inches to the airport in Allentown but 11.2 inches in South Allentown that was very strong dynamics that were in place which brought the colder air from above down to the surface in the heavier precipitation. When the precipitation was lighter it had turned back to rain (specifically referring to Allentown now) ... There's no doubt that it played a role. But without significantly cold enough air in place at the surface resulting from cold air advection, there wouldn't have been any snow in the region. In addition, dynamics can't explain the subtantial precipitaton and absence of snowfall on LI, except for some sleet and a small amount of snow at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diego Posted July 11, 2012 Share Posted July 11, 2012 Long Island was in a less favorable position with that storm than interior areas. Once the initial band of heavy snow came through, the steadier snow bands focused further inland, with warmer 850mb temps in Long Island than further inland. And tell me that LI's closer proximity to sub. warm ocean temps. at that time had no influence on the 850mb temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted July 11, 2012 Share Posted July 11, 2012 And tell me that LI's closer proximity to sub. warm ocean temps. at that time had no influence on the 850mb temps. I'd assume the warm ocean temperatures had at least some influence on the storm's outcome in LI but it's not the only reason why Long Island didn't have a lot of snow with that storm. If the storm had been more favorably positioned, it still wouldn't have been any 10+ inch snowstorm but there would've been more snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diego Posted July 11, 2012 Share Posted July 11, 2012 I'd assume the warm ocean temperatures had at least some influence on the storm's outcome in LI but it's not the only reason why Long Island didn't have a lot of snow with that storm. If the storm had been more favorably positioned, it still wouldn't have been any 10+ inch snowstorm but there would've been more snow. I don't think the problem was the position, which was quite favorable, but was more related to the limited level of cold air which was available. I think there would have been more snow there if the bl was colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted July 11, 2012 Share Posted July 11, 2012 I don't think the problem was the position, which was quite favorable, but was more related to the limited level of cold air which was available. I think there would have been more snow there if the bl was colder. It was an October snowstorm. What do you expect a foot of snow? If it had not taken place in October, there may have been much more snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted July 11, 2012 Share Posted July 11, 2012 The Fall of 2001 turned warm, Nov-Dec were two of the warmest Nov-Decs on record. The entire winter of 2001-02 was incredibly warm. Then came 3 straight days above 95 degrees in April, 2002. May, 2002, was a bit below normal, but then 2002 was a very hot, dry summer. The pattern didn't really change until a strong cold frontal passage in early October, 2002. Perhaps unclew or sacrus could provide more? They have the data day-by-day at their fingertips. We went back to a relatively unfavorable pattern again a couple of times thereafter through about November 10th. It was not until that Tennessee Valley severe weather outbreak that the entire pattern changed for the whole country. And we should also note December was pretty bad for 2 weeks from the 8th-24th as well. December 2002 and 2003 both made the best of what were not exceptionally good patterns for most of the month, then the January patterns WERE really good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted July 11, 2012 Share Posted July 11, 2012 There's no doubt that it played a role. But without significantly cold enough air in place at the surface resulting from cold air advection, there wouldn't have been any snow in the region. In addition, dynamics can't explain the subtantial precipitaton and absence of snowfall on LI, except for some sleet and a small amount of snow at the end. In Allentown specifically our high temperature on October 29th was 43 degrees and the low was only 33 degrees. It never even got below freezing for that event...So yes there was "cool" air at the surface but the coldest air was above in the upper levels. When the heavy precipitation came thru it dragged that air from above down to the surface...other wise we would have been looking at a cold rain storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 11, 2012 Share Posted July 11, 2012 This post is an example of why I don't post here as much anymore. This post has absolutely no logic whatsoever. .For one, normals are normals for a reason. If it was "normal" to always be six degrees above normal, the normals would be six degrees higher Another thing is that many hot summers were followed by cold and snowy winters. Do a little homework assignment, just going off your memory, as I don't know how old you are. Go back and think of every hot summer you can think of and the winter that followed. Then tell me how many of those winters had a lot of snow and how many did not. It hasn't been normal for well over a year now, this is the warmest period we've ever had, is it possible that things have finally turned and that the above normal is here to stay? Either that or we're just in an extended above normal pattern that may flip to an extended below normal pattern to even us out, but that's a big if. It seems that the only way for us to see any below normal temperatures is during a massive block/-west based nao, otherwise temperatures are always slightly to significantly above normal (cloudy, rainy days are the exception usually). I've seen people post global anomaly maps and it did generally show the U.S. in an above normal regime while it averaged out to near normal for the entire globe, so the 1 yr+ above normal regime could be a localized thing in relation to the globe, but that's yet to be determined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 11, 2012 Author Share Posted July 11, 2012 The Fall of 2001 turned warm, Nov-Dec were two of the warmest Nov-Decs on record. The entire winter of 2001-02 was incredibly warm. Then came 3 straight days above 95 degrees in April, 2002. May, 2002, was a bit below normal, but then 2002 was a very hot, dry summer. The pattern didn't really change until a strong cold frontal passage in early October, 2002. Perhaps unclew or sacrus could provide more? They have the data day-by-day at their fingertips. Put up the monthlies i wanna see the 13 consecutive months Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 11, 2012 Author Share Posted July 11, 2012 Another example of complete BS. The water can be 100 degrees. If the wind is blowing off land, who cares what the water temp is? Lol......even if this were true which its not a 76 degree water temp by cape cod has far bigger implications than precip type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 11, 2012 Share Posted July 11, 2012 There's no doubt that it played a role. But without significantly cold enough air in place at the surface resulting from cold air advection, there wouldn't have been any snow in the region. In addition, dynamics can't explain the subtantial precipitaton and absence of snowfall on LI, except for some sleet and a small amount of snow at the end. The heavy band in the morning played a big role. Example. Astoria, NY got into heavy banding and got a quick 2.5", while areas just 3-4 miles east got nothing because the heavy band was concentrated. I made Sundog drive from Flushing to Astoria to see the snow because he got zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted July 11, 2012 Share Posted July 11, 2012 Most ridiculous argument ever? Of course banding/heavier precip played a role.....and of course water temps also played a role. Anyone who believes either of them to be untrue is the lolz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted July 11, 2012 Share Posted July 11, 2012 These Are The Years That Followed 2 La Nina Winters 1963 1972 1976 1986 1997 2009 And Snow Totals For NYC 1963- 1964 - 44.7 1972 -1973 - 2.8 1976 -1977 - 24.5 2009 - 2010 - 51.4 4 totally different winters Obviously these wide ranging amounts indicate that several other factors also determine how much snowfall we can expect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 11, 2012 Author Share Posted July 11, 2012 Most ridiculous argument ever? Of course banding/heavier precip played a role.....and of course water temps also played a role. Anyone who believes either of them to be untrue is the lolz. You get flooded last night ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted July 11, 2012 Share Posted July 11, 2012 You get flooded last night ? I worked, wasnt home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted July 11, 2012 Share Posted July 11, 2012 Gotta go with Diego over Analog96 on this one...also remember that even a due north wind has a fetch over the Sound for almost all of L.I...and with the Sound near 65 F last October...it is more than sufficiently warm to edge BL temps up just enough to keep it wet rather than white... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 11, 2012 Share Posted July 11, 2012 Early signs are pointing to a weak to moderate el nino Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 11, 2012 Author Share Posted July 11, 2012 Gotta go with Diego over Analog96 on this one...also remember that even a due north wind has a fetch over the Sound for almost all of L.I...and with the Sound near 65 F last October...it is more than sufficiently warm to edge BL temps up just enough to keep it wet rather than white... Imagine what a 76 degree reading will do. It may never snow on the island again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted July 11, 2012 Share Posted July 11, 2012 Imagine what a 76 degree reading will do. It may never snow on the island again. Well at least I'll have the memories...until senility sets in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 11, 2012 Author Share Posted July 11, 2012 Well at least I'll have the memories...until senility sets in. pretty soon everyone in the northeast will only have memories the way things are going but hey, at least all of our cars will last longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted July 11, 2012 Share Posted July 11, 2012 pretty soon everyone in the northeast will only have memories the way things are going but hey, at least all of our cars will last longer. Are you trolling or being serious? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted July 11, 2012 Share Posted July 11, 2012 He's better than Henry M thats not saying much at all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 12, 2012 Author Share Posted July 12, 2012 Are you trolling or being serious? this is all you need to know. Tropical species of fish being caught in the north atlantic. The globe and the sea temps are on fire and rising rapidly by the day. Its global climate change at a rapid rate. Im not going to debate man-made vs climate cylces, but there is no denying we are on the warm side of things and it's not going the other way any time soon. http://www.onthewate...ards-bay-cobia/ They are found in warm-temperate to tropical waters of the West and East Atlantic, throughout the Caribbean and in the Indo-Pacific off India, Australia and Japan.[1] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted July 12, 2012 Share Posted July 12, 2012 this is all you need to know. Tropical species of fish being caught in the north atlantic. The globe and the sea temps are on fire and rising rapidly by the day. Its global climate change at a rapid rate. Im not going to debate man-made vs climate cylces, but there is no denying we are on the warm side of things and it's not going the other way any time soon. http://www.onthewater.com/fishing/buzzards-bay-cobia/ Don't worry man there's 13 months straight of below normal weather coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 12, 2012 Author Share Posted July 12, 2012 Don't worry man there's 13 months straight of below normal weather coming. with 76 degree water temps and 80 on the way, the only thing coming is a major hurricane and another snowless winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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