Snowlover76 Posted July 10, 2012 Share Posted July 10, 2012 Summer of 95 was hot too-the 3rd hot one in a row for that period summer 1993 was warm, and that following winter(1993-94) was snowy and it had a gradient pattern, and lots of ice storms, in January and February of 1994. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 10, 2012 Author Share Posted July 10, 2012 Summer of 95 was hot too-the 3rd hot one in a row for that period we baked last summer and fall and continue to bake and had a snowless winter, so throw that correlation out the window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 10, 2012 Share Posted July 10, 2012 we baked last summer and fall and continue to bake and had a snowless winter, so throw that correlation out the window. I agree. Anyone who thinks we are having a cold winter is insane. Global warming is here and here to stay boys. enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 10, 2012 Share Posted July 10, 2012 we baked last summer and fall and continue to bake and had a snowless winter, so throw that correlation out the window. August was average temps and even slightly below in LGA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 10, 2012 Share Posted July 10, 2012 Last month was average temps and NYC finished slightly below. July is warm so far. Let's see how the rest of the summer goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted July 10, 2012 Share Posted July 10, 2012 These are temperature anomalies for years that had an El Nino that was following a La Nina, the years that are included in it are: 1951-52, 1957-58, 1965-66, 1972-73, 1976-77, and 2006-07 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted July 10, 2012 Share Posted July 10, 2012 we baked last summer and fall and continue to bake and had a snowless winter, so throw that correlation out the window. This correlation isn't exact but it does apply to a good amount of cases. There are obviously exceptions in there such as the hot summer 2011 and warm 11-12, as well as the chilly summer of 2009 followed by 09-10 (we didn't get as much as DC but it was still snowy) but one exception doesn't mean there is no correlation at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 10, 2012 Author Share Posted July 10, 2012 This correlation isn't exact but it does apply to a good amount of cases. There are obviously exceptions in there such as the hot summer 2011 and warm 11-12, as well as the chilly summer of 2009 followed by 09-10 (we didn't get as much as DC but it was still snowy) but one exception doesn't mean there is no correlation at all. If I was a snow lover, which I no longer am, I would be cheering on some big time cold anomolies in our neck of the woods sooner rather than later instead of all these above normal months because at some point it won't be a streak, it will be the norm. Just sayin'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted July 10, 2012 Share Posted July 10, 2012 If I was a snow lover, which I no longer am, I would be cheering on some big time cold anomolies in our neck of the woods sooner rather than later instead of all these above normal months because at some point it won't be a streak, it will be the norm. Just sayin'. 2002 had no cold anomalies until Oct 7. I remember that very clearly. Temperatures reached into the mid and upper 80s. A strong cold front went thru, with some t-storms, and by Oct 30, we had rain/sleet/snow mix that night. The next time it was above normal was around Feb 22. I don't want to see any cold weather unitl mid October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 10, 2012 Author Share Posted July 10, 2012 2002 had no cold anomalies until Oct 7. I remember that very clearly. Temperatures reached into the mid and upper 80s. A strong cold front went thru, with some t-storms, and by Oct 30, we had rain/sleet/snow mix that night. The next time it was above normal was around Feb 22. I don't want to see any cold weather unitl mid October. Dollars to donuts the preceeding 13 months weren't all above normal. Fact is its not 2002 anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted July 10, 2012 Share Posted July 10, 2012 Dollars to donuts the preceeding 13 months weren't all above normal. Fact is its not 2002 anymore Dollars to donuts they WERE. That was the warmest pattern up until now. In fact, this pattern has CLOSELY resembled ten years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted July 10, 2012 Share Posted July 10, 2012 Dollars to donuts the preceeding 13 months weren't all above normal. Fact is its not 2002 anymore You do know that the rubber band will have to snap eventually, and that this streak of above normal temperatures cannot possibly go on forever? I am hoping that it snaps around late October early November, just in time for winter, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 10, 2012 Author Share Posted July 10, 2012 Dollars to donuts they WERE. That was the warmest pattern up until now. In fact, this pattern has CLOSELY resembled ten years ago. you are the met, pull the numbers for the preceeding 13 months prior to October 2002 for KNYC, KEWR, AND KLGA. Let's see what it shows . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted July 10, 2012 Share Posted July 10, 2012 You do know that the rubber band will have to snap eventually, and that this streak of above normal temperatures cannot possibly go on forever? I am hoping that it snaps around late October early November, just in time for winter, lol. The rubber band analogy is true you are correct. Tell me, when do you expect to see 13 months below normal? I hope it starts before this winter! Oh I'm so excited now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted July 10, 2012 Share Posted July 10, 2012 The rubber band analogy is true you are correct. Tell me, when do you expect to see 13 months below normal? I hope it starts before this winter! Oh I'm so excited now! You should tell me why you think we will continue to have above normal temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted July 10, 2012 Share Posted July 10, 2012 You should tell me why you think we will continue to have above normal temps? There always has been the warminstas On the other side is the cold and snow lovers However..what is more important is to look at the science... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted July 11, 2012 Share Posted July 11, 2012 I agree. Anyone who thinks we are having a cold winter is insane. Global warming is here and here to stay boys. enjoy. I concur in part, dissent in part and remand for re-sentencing on Count 2.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 11, 2012 Share Posted July 11, 2012 I concur in part, dissent in part and remand for re-sentencing on Count 2.... haha well done! Seriously though, even the snowy winters past several years werent cold really, barely cold enough for snow in many cases. This warm winter wasnt all that bad to be honest, could get used to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 11, 2012 Share Posted July 11, 2012 haha well done! Seriously though, even the snowy winters past several years werent cold really, barely cold enough for snow in many cases. This warm winter wasnt all that bad to be honest, could get used to it. Winter of 2010-2011 was cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 11, 2012 Share Posted July 11, 2012 Winter of 2010-2011 was cold. December 2010: -4.5 January 2011: -2.4 February 2011: +1.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 11, 2012 Share Posted July 11, 2012 December 2010: -4.5 January 2011: -2.4 February 2011: +1.4 December was cold, ill definitely admit that, and early january, but then the winter warmed significantly and saw little snow thereafter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 11, 2012 Share Posted July 11, 2012 December was cold, ill definitely admit that, and early january, but then the winter warmed significantly and saw little snow thereafter. Early January? January 27 dumped nearly 20" over most of the area. Then the 4"-5" snowstorm in February for Queens and north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diego Posted July 11, 2012 Share Posted July 11, 2012 Seriously though, even the snowy winters past several years werent cold really, barely cold enough for snow in many cases. I guess what would be considered cold is subjective. And while the winter of 2010/11 averaged out below normal, with total snowfall being the 3rd highest ever since 1868/69, was it necessarily a cold winter? The temp. stats in this regard were not really that impressive. While Dec's avg. at KNYC was 32.8 (sev'l degrees below avg.), the lowest temp. that month was only 19F on the 14th. Similarly, while Jan's avg. was below normal at 29.7 (normal for about 30 to 40 miles north of NYC), with a minimum temp. of 6 on the 24th, did it really seem that cold? And we all know about Feb., it sucked (avg. temp. 36.1). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 11, 2012 Author Share Posted July 11, 2012 Did anyone verify that 76 degree water temp off of cape cod? If that is true, it may never snow again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted July 11, 2012 Share Posted July 11, 2012 haha well done! Seriously though, even the snowy winters past several years werent cold really, barely cold enough for snow in many cases. This warm winter wasnt all that bad to be honest, could get used to it. Despite how much you might want to twist reality, 2010-11 was cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted July 11, 2012 Share Posted July 11, 2012 Did anyone verify that 76 degree water temp off of cape cod? If that is true, it may never snow again. Another example of complete BS. The water can be 100 degrees. If the wind is blowing off land, who cares what the water temp is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted July 11, 2012 Share Posted July 11, 2012 you are the met, pull the numbers for the preceeding 13 months prior to October 2002 for KNYC, KEWR, AND KLGA. Let's see what it shows . The Fall of 2001 turned warm, Nov-Dec were two of the warmest Nov-Decs on record. The entire winter of 2001-02 was incredibly warm. Then came 3 straight days above 95 degrees in April, 2002. May, 2002, was a bit below normal, but then 2002 was a very hot, dry summer. The pattern didn't really change until a strong cold frontal passage in early October, 2002. Perhaps unclew or sacrus could provide more? They have the data day-by-day at their fingertips. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diego Posted July 11, 2012 Share Posted July 11, 2012 Another example of complete BS. The water can be 100 degrees. If the wind is blowing off land, who cares what the water temp is? You may want to rethink this one. Water temps. can and do have profound effects on temps. at and above the bl which determine precip. types. In addition, it can radically alter upper air steering patterns resulting in warm air advection which would not have occurred but for the excessively warm water. The virtual absence of any appreciable snowfall on LI on Oct. 29/30, 2011 is a prime example, because of the warm ocean temps. at that time, where the wind direction remained primarily from the n or ne with the surface low track remaining well offshore. See link below for Islip, which only reported .3." http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KISP/2011/10/29/DailyHistory.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted July 11, 2012 Share Posted July 11, 2012 You may want to rethink this one. Water temps. can and do have profound effects on temps. at and above the bl which determine precip. types. In addition, it can radically alter upper air steering patterns resulting in warm air advection which would not have occurred but for the excessively warm water. The virtual absence of any appreciable snowfall on LI on Oct. 29/30, 2011 is a prime example, because of the warm ocean temps. at that time, where the wind direction remained primarily from the n or ne with the surface low track remaining well offshore. See link below for Islip, which only reported .3." http://www.wundergro...ilyHistory.html Total BS. AThe absence of snowfall on Long Island in October, 2011, was because the main reason for snow falling (at lower elevations) was dynamic cooling, which can only happen when precip falls heavily and can transport cooler air down. Precip over Long Island was significantly lighter, and as a result, most of the precipitation was rain, or snow with temps well above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diego Posted July 11, 2012 Share Posted July 11, 2012 Total BS. AThe absence of snowfall on Long Island in October, 2011, was because the main reason for snow falling (at lower elevations) was dynamic cooling, which can only happen when precip falls heavily and can transport cooler air down. Precip over Long Island was significantly lighter, and as a result, most of the precipitation was rain, or snow with temps well above freezing. Dynamic cooling in Oct? Puuuleeese! This was clearly the result of cold air advection (perhaps not at the level of typical winter standards, but certainly by late Oct. ones, nightime temps. had dropped to the upper teens and lower 20's at many upstate NY obs. sites). And recheck your precip. stats. Islip reported 1.90 inches of precip. on the 29th/30th and most other sites in Nassau and Suffolk reported between 1.5 and 2" of melted precip. Campare that with Yorktown Heights, an inland location in northern Westchester which had 11.0 inches of snow, but only 1.85" of melted precip., no more/no less than the LI locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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