Isotherm Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 June update is in as of yesterday.... That's an interesing temp map actually. Seems to indicate a +EPO pattern w/ cold AK and torch for most of the US. Maybe some strong west based blocking (warmth west of Greenland) to keep the immediate East Coast cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 In general its not good for AK to be cold...but we can have patterns where they are cold and the central/eastern US is also in the deep freeze....January 2004 and February 2007 are two good examples. January 1966 is another one. As was January 1971. Alaska hit record lows of -81, KNYC was frigid. Not so February though. Typical of La Niña. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 over done and you can see there is a trend to go back towards weak nina, so if you average it out, la nada. Primary analogue is 01-02, secondary is 97-98, terciary is 68-69. Signs are pointing to a fairly moderate nino on the way, your opening statement might be right for the wrong reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 20, 2012 Share Posted June 20, 2012 Looks lock for a el nino....4dvar fail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 Weak to moderate El Nino Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 21, 2012 Author Share Posted June 21, 2012 given how long we have been in a nina and how the atmosphere just doesnt' snap when something changes, its entirely possible water temps say one thing and the end result is another. I feel confident with my prediction and analogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 Solar cycle and AO link is BS. Unless, 07, 08 and 09 were rocking -AO years that I just missed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 As was January 1971. Alaska hit record lows of -81, KNYC was frigid. Not so February though. Typical of La Niña. I remember a week before the coldest day of the winter of 1971-72 some place in Alaska was -60...Back then when Alaska got cold we usually felt it a week later...NYC had a max/min of 15/5... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 I remember a week before the coldest day of the winter of 1971-72 some place in Alaska was -60...Back then when Alaska got cold we usually felt it a week later...NYC had a max/min of 15/5... Back when the City used to get actual cold nights..Arctic outbreaks have been few and far between the last few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 the stratosphere did warm a bit (tho it wasnt technically a SSW if I remember right) and we did get that period of blocking in late January/early Feb...the placement of this block, among other poor forcing factors, dumped all of the cold air into Asia/Europe unfortunately. Yeah the cold never really got to this side of the globe. Eastern and Central Europe got blasted though, I remember hearing about ice on the canals in Venice. Major blocking just to the north of scandinavia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 I remember a week before the coldest day of the winter of 1971-72 some place in Alaska was -60...Back then when Alaska got cold we usually felt it a week later...NYC had a max/min of 15/5... Do we go back to that kind of a pattern now that we're in cold phase PDO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 given how long we have been in a nina and how the atmosphere just doesnt' snap when something changes, its entirely possible water temps say one thing and the end result is another. I feel confident with my prediction and analogs. Your Nina hangover may be because of the -PDO. Right now it is negative, but should rise more as we head into the summer and developing Nino. The -PDO could help to have this have some Nina characteristics if it remains formidable, however a moderate Nino would almost have to display typical Nino characteristics by default. The tropical convection alone would cause Nino behavior and would be almost impossible to display Nina characteristics. If you are worried about a crappy winter, it's more due to the NAO imo and not a Nina hangover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 27, 2012 Author Share Posted June 27, 2012 Your Nina hangover may be because of the -PDO. Right now it is negative, but should rise more as we head into the summer and developing Nino. The -PDO could help to have this have some Nina characteristics if it remains formidable, however a moderate Nino would almost have to display typical Nino characteristics by default. The tropical convection alone would cause Nino behavior and would be almost impossible to display Nina characteristics. If you are worried about a crappy winter, it's more due to the NAO imo and not a Nina hangover. record +AO this winter, bank on it. We are using it all up now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 record +AO this winter, bank on it. We are using it all up now. Eh, I think the odds of a crazy +AO this winter are slim. Could it be a +AO..sure, but not a strong one imo. Of course we have little skill in predicting this, but just my gut combined with some history. You can bank on much more QPF than last year for sure. Take that to the bank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 27, 2012 Author Share Posted June 27, 2012 Eh, I think the odds of a crazy +AO this winter are slim. Could it be a +AO..sure, but not a strong one imo. Of course we have little skill in predicting this, but just my gut combined with some history. You can bank on much more QPF than last year for sure. Take that to the bank. well yeah, but warm and wet as opposed to warm and dry is still a bad winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 well yeah, but warm and wet as opposed to warm and dry is still a bad winter. I would always take my chances with more moisture, period. And also, I'm not saying a +AO or +NAO is what I would go with right now. It might be alternating periods too. I think some of the long range signs are promising anyways. Besides, this is like your sports predictions. You always go negative because that's how it works in your mind..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 27, 2012 Author Share Posted June 27, 2012 I would always take my chances with more moisture, period. And also, I'm not saying a +AO or +NAO is what I would go with right now. It might be alternating periods too. I think some of the long range signs are promising anyways. Besides, this is like your sports predictions. You always go negative because that's how it works in your mind..lol. We shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted June 30, 2012 Share Posted June 30, 2012 Weak to moderate El Nino update stronger + anomalies http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/nino34Mon.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 30, 2012 Author Share Posted June 30, 2012 update stronger + anomalies http://www.cpc.ncep....3/nino34Mon.gif uber nino coming? that's gonna make the globe even warmer, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted June 30, 2012 Share Posted June 30, 2012 uber nino coming? that's gonna make the globe even warmer, lol is there any correlation to moderate-strong el-nino's and - NAO (wishcasting here) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 West based El Nino becoming more likely http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2012/07/west-based-el-nino-becoming-more.html Great news for snow lovers in the east =) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 West based El Nino becoming more likely http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2012/07/west-based-el-nino-becoming-more.html Great news for snow lovers in the east =) Hopefully the NAO will cooperate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 I am liking 2002-2003 as an analog for this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 Glad we are discussing snow again, this severe weather talk is lame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 6, 2012 Author Share Posted July 6, 2012 Glad we are discussing snow again, this severe weather talk is lame. no, what was lame was my 18 today, because I got paired with some ***hole who after every shot yelled "**** I suck" and "mother ****er go right" "mother ****er go left "oh that was the worst ****ing shot I have ever hit" for 18 holes. At the end of the round, i wanted to shove a putter up his ass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 no, what was lame was my 18 today, because I got paired with some ***hole who after every shot yelled "**** I suck" and "mother ****er go right" "mother ****er go left "oh that was the worst ****ing shot I have ever hit" for 18 holes. At the end of the round, i wanted to shove a putter up his ass. Sorry about that. I tend to verbalize my frustration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 6, 2012 Author Share Posted July 6, 2012 Sorry about that. I tend to verbalize my frustration. LOL, nah, if it was you, i could handle that. This guy was a tool of the biggest degree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 Glad we are discussing snow again, this severe weather talk is lame. Agree I am done with summer and all the miserable weather that it brings, I am now ready to talk winter snow, cold, and winds!! Summer weather sucks, I mean heat and humidity gets very old after a while, and severe weather season this year sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 I am liking 2002-2003 as an analog for this winter. or 95-96. Whatever gave us the most snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 or 95-96. Whatever gave us the most snow My top analogues are: 2002-03 2006-07 1976-77 1986-87 some of those winters were good and some were bad, but they all are weak El Ninos that followed La Ninas, it is still a bit early to get into specifics IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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