Winter 2012-2013

[TheTrials]

Despite your sarcasm, the analogs you grouped as similar and a basis for you bad "winter" forecast are completely different...so i don't see the sense in it.

I didn't say they were similar, please point to the part of my post which says they are similar. Regardless, they all represent different aspects of the upcoming winter that I think will mix together to produce a second bad winter in a row. if you like snow and cold that is.

And its only an opinion, I am sure Mt. Earthlight will do just fine with both its real and manufactured snow totals

[earthlight]

I didn't say they were similar, please point to the part of my post which says they are similar. Regardless, they all represent different aspects of the upcoming winter that I think will mix together to produce a second bad winter in a row. if you like snow and cold that is.

Lol. To use the three of them to analog a winter makes very little sense considering they all featured completely different Enso states and results.

Your other argument was to use the forecasts for the weak nino, take the trend towards a weak nina and average it out.

Come on man.

In regards to the last comment, I assume you have as much basis for that argument as you did the one for Newark's OBS yesterday, so I won't even bother going into it.

[TheTrials]

Lol. To use the three of them to analog a winter makes very little sense considering they all featured completely different Enso states and results.

Your other argument was to use the forecasts for the weak nino, take the trend towards a weak nina and average it out.

Come on man.

In regards to the last comment, I assume you have as much basis for that argument as you did the one for Newark's OBS yesterday, so I won't even bother going into it.

You don't have to agree with my methods or my prediction. I am not getting paid to forecast, its a hobby site. It's not like I said I flipped a coin and here is what winter will be, although I am sure people will argue that would make a better forecast than mine.

Lots of people use different methods to forecast, I believe KA from the midatlantic had 2 strong ninas as his 1st analog's in 09-10.

This is a thread to get thoughts going, everyone can put their thoughts in here, i won't put them down, although others might.

As to the last part, we are friends, so I assume you let my silly comments about your inflated snow totals roll right off your back. I look forward to seeing how far you can stretch the truth this winter.

[earthlight]

You don't have to agree with my methods or my prediction. I am not getting paid to forecast, its a hobby site. It's not like I said I flipped a coin and here is what winter will be, although I am sure people will argue that would make a better forecast than mine.

Lots of people use different methods to forecast, I believe KA from the midatlantic had 2 strong ninas as his 1st analog's in 09-10.

This is a thread to get thoughts going, everyone can put their thoughts in here, i won't put them down, although others might.

Fair enough, but if you want to start a constructive discussion I'm not sure this was the way to do it. I'll never put anyone down for forecasting, but I think it is also fair for myself and others to voice our opinion, especially in a public discussion, that the methods used to make the forecast were questionable. That's the only point i'm trying to make.

[TheTrials]

Fair enough, but if you want to start a constructive discussion I'm not sure this was the way to do it. I'll never put anyone down for forecasting, but I think it is also fair for myself and others to voice our opinion, especially in a public discussion, that the methods used to make the forecast were questionable. That's the only point i'm trying to make.

Lots of ways to have constructive discussions, especially when getting away from group think (remember gradient pattern, ssw last year?) Sometimes a kook like myself can get people going in directions they would have never thought of.

As to questionable methods, a lot of people thought it was questionable to put CO2 into liquids and then drink them, but lo and behold, 100's of years later, soda was a gagillion dollar idea.

[ORH_wxman]

Considering we have very little skill at LR forecasting in general, I don't see how using other analogs that don't necessarily match ENSO is totally wrong. Last year, December started really looking like December 2006...and that was El nino vs La Nina.

1968-1969 was a weak to mod El Nino that acted nothing like an El Nino with an Aleutian Ridge and a big GOA low and a uber -PDO on 'roids. It looked like a moderate La Nina to be honest.

That said, its always good to bring reasoning into the analogs if possible. But ENSO is obviously not the only player or this would be a lot easier.

[Isotherm]

Current modelling says trials will go down in flames. One model not so hot in terms of accuracy, the other, a pretty good track record.

Not agreeing or disagreeing with these, just FYI...

[NEXtreme]

Current modelling says trials will go down in flames. One model not so hot in terms of accuracy, the other, a pretty good track record.

Not agreeing or disagreeing with these, just FYI...

Joe B:

cfs winter vs 76-77

start lighting the candles and saying ur prayers, wild winter lovers!

pic.twitter.com/INnMnCCL

[TheTrials]

Current modelling says trials will go down in flames. One model not so hot in terms of accuracy, the other, a pretty good track record.

Not agreeing or disagreeing with these, just FYI...

Let's hope these aren't the models that predicted the ssw last January and return of blocking for the end of winter.

[NJwinter23]

Let's hope these aren't the models that predicted the ssw last January and return of blocking for the end of winter.

the stratosphere did warm a bit (tho it wasnt technically a SSW if I remember right) and we did get that period of blocking in late January/early Feb...the placement of this block, among other poor forcing factors, dumped all of the cold air into Asia/Europe unfortunately.

[TheTrials]

the stratosphere did warm a bit (tho it wasnt technically a SSW if I remember right) and we did get that period of blocking in late January/early Feb...the placement of this block, among other poor forcing factors, dumped all of the cold air into Asia/Europe unfortunately.

that blocking was useless for us as basically you had all the positive anomilies on the other side of the globe with a huge vortez still parked over greenland.

Obviously I am just making the point be cautious of any model output right now for next winter.

Remember the euro weeklies/monthlies in 2010 showing a blow torch non blocky pattern in Dec & Jan? only right at the very end did they catch on.

[SnoSki14]

Well those warm extremes that we saw will eventually have to balance out, though above normal will still likely be the deal, but I'd be shocked if next winter was anything that we've just seen taken into consideration that we are likely to be in an El Nino.

[CooL]

turn on

[PB GFI]

This may a little to far out for my skill level , however i cant see this winter being anything like last winter .

Extremes like ( 77- 78 ) cold and ( 2011 - 2012 ) warm tend to sneak up on you and hard to telegraph this far in advance .

Think theres some model support for a colder look , I think its too early .

Think once you get into the early fall months we will get a real handle on the real strenth of the Nino and its direction .

IMO .

[bluewave]

Current modelling says trials will go down in flames. One model not so hot in terms of accuracy, the other, a pretty good track record.

Not agreeing or disagreeing with these, just FYI...

Do you have the link to those CFS maps?

[TheTrials]

turn on

Ignore the fact that alaska is by and large below normal on that map which generally does not spell cold weather for the NE as it is usually indicative of a one eye monster out there.

[Isotherm]

Do you have the link to those CFS maps?

It's from the weatherbell site, not sure if you can access if you're not a member.

[bluewave]

It's from the weatherbell site, not sure if you can access if you're not a member.

Thanks.

[NEXtreme]

This would be brutal on your heating bills:

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/213434939251761152/photo/1/large

[ORH_wxman]

Ignore the fact that alaska is by and large below normal on that map which generally does not spell cold weather for the NE as it is usually indicative of a one eye monster out there.

In general its not good for AK to be cold...but we can have patterns where they are cold and the central/eastern US is also in the deep freeze....January 2004 and February 2007 are two good examples. January 1966 is another one.

[TheTrials]

In general its not good for AK to be cold...but we can have patterns where they are cold and the central/eastern US is also in the deep freeze....January 2004 and February 2007 are two good examples. January 1966 is another one.

def. an exception and not the rule

[PB GFI]

These Dec - Jan - Feb CFS maps look as good as it could get around here for that extended period of time

Hard to them take seriously this far out , but that would take your Crude and Nat gas bills go thru the roof .

Cant post maps - sorry - sure most of you have seen them .

[NEXtreme]

These Dec - Jan - Feb CFS maps look as good as it could get around here for that extended period of time

Hard to them take seriously this far out , but that would take your Crude and Nat gas bills go thru the roof .

Cant post maps - sorry - sure most of you have seen them .

A few weeks ago Joe B compared what the CFS was showing last year around this time, it was showing a mild fall and winter... However this year it's totally showing the opposite.

[Isotherm]

In general its not good for AK to be cold...but we can have patterns where they are cold and the central/eastern US is also in the deep freeze....January 2004 and February 2007 are two good examples. January 1966 is another one.

Although sfc temps were cold, H5 heights were positive across msot of AK for those years. Big time -AO/NAO blocking, with a slight neg PNA for all three cases. Essentially ideal US cold patterns -- below normal temps West to East with a connected block from AK to Greenland.

Neg height anomaly over AK is basically a death sentence for the East.

[Isotherm]

Actually the JAMSTEC model I posted indicates the core of the cold anomalies in W Canada, nern Plains, with warmth in the southern Plains, and lessening chill on the East Coast. That's certainly not our ideal pattern. The CFS is much more favorable (and of course the worse model).

[Isotherm]

Given the state of the climate, I think any comparisons to 1976-77 need to be taken with the mindset that we'd likely be much warmer than that particular year. 76-77 Nino occurred not only at the end of a 3-year Nina but also near the end of the 25-30 year negative PDO phase. Thus the global climate was at its coolest point (relative to the surrounding decades) since we were finishing a neg PDO, and 10-15 years into the neg/cool AMO decadal phase as well. This upcoming year -- we've only been in the neg PDO for several years really, and the AMO is still warm. We saw w/ 2009-10 what can happen with a Nino following a double nina and extreme blocking. However, 09-10 was a mod/strong Nino, and if this upcoming winter is weak, I'd think we could conceivably see colder anomalies in the northern tier than that winter (if the blocking is there).

So in terms of analoging on the same decadal AMO/PDO standpoint, I think 51-52 or 57-58 would probably be more applicable (except on a weaker scale with 57-58). 76-77 may be good ENSO wise, but the global climate will skew it much warmer.

[TheTrials]

Actually the JAMSTEC model I posted indicates the core of the cold anomalies in W Canada, nern Plains, with warmth in the southern Plains, and lessening chill on the East Coast. That's certainly not our ideal pattern. The CFS is much more favorable (and of course the worse model).

-PNA

[griteater]

Actually the JAMSTEC model I posted indicates the core of the cold anomalies in W Canada, nern Plains, with warmth in the southern Plains, and lessening chill on the East Coast. That's certainly not our ideal pattern. The CFS is much more favorable (and of course the worse model).

June update is in as of yesterday....

[Isotherm]

Take a look at the new June JAMSTEC run for this summer JJA -- now erases any blue in the Eastern US. Pretty much in line with my thinking; torch summer for the CONUS, maybe a hint of near normal in the East.

Precip is very wet for the East.

[Isotherm]

The autumn is a chilly look for the mid latitudes globally: