NYCSuburbs Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 I usually don't bother to look into the upcoming winters in detail until at least October, but I'd be surprised if 2012-13 ends up anywhere near as bad as last winter did. It may not be a snowy winter, but almost anything, even an 06-07 like pattern, would be better than what we just went through as at least there were not-so-bad storms in there and the pattern didn't endlessly repeat itself from December through March. Blocking is starting to become somewhat more frequent since the pattern changed in March/April, it's too early to know how much blocking there will be next winter but at this rate it would easily be more than what we had last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 here you go, started an embrace the snowless winter thread 1/13 http://www.americanw...nowless-winter/ That thread is a great read. Has to be top ten, along w this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickD2011 Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 It's ironic that we're calling this past winter horrible when most people think that this was a good winter. It's only good if you don't like cold and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 To be honest any winter will be better than last years stinker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted June 2, 2012 Share Posted June 2, 2012 I think we see a weak nino and east based nao, at least thats what I am hoping for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted June 2, 2012 Share Posted June 2, 2012 look what going from a year that ended in two to a year that ends in three... ends in 2....snowfall....ends in 3... 1871-72...14.1".....1872-73......60.3" 1881-82...31.4".....1882-83......44.0" 1891-92...25.4".....1892-93......49.7" 1901-02...30.0".....1902-03......28.7" 1911-12...29.5".....1912-13......15.3" 1921-22...27.8".....1922-23......60.4" 1931-32.....5.3".....1932-33......27.0" 1941-42...11.3".....1942-43......29.5" 1951-52...19.7".....1952-53......15.1" 1961-62...18.1".....1962-63......16.3" 1971-72...22.9".....1972-73........2.8" 1981-82...24.6".....1982-83......27.2" 1991-92...12.6".....1992-93......24.5" 2001-02.....3.5".....2002-03......49.3" 2011-12.....7.4".....2012-13......???? average....18.9".....average......32.2" 1931- 2012........13.9"......................24.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 2, 2012 Share Posted June 2, 2012 we were toast when that massive vortex formed in november... just like 06 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 2, 2012 Author Share Posted June 2, 2012 La nada and a big time +AO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted June 2, 2012 Share Posted June 2, 2012 too early to make any credible forecasts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted June 2, 2012 Share Posted June 2, 2012 too early to make any credible forecasts DT has his first look at the first guess for winter 2012-13 coming out in a few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted June 3, 2012 Share Posted June 3, 2012 any of you weenies provide me some good input on highland Lakes, NJ, I always see west milford spotter at 1100 ft pulls in solid numbers. Just closed on a home in the higher elevations. Home is at around 1420 feet or so in elevation. Looks like around 55-possibly 60 inches of snow a year? Looking forward to some decent t-storms too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted June 3, 2012 Share Posted June 3, 2012 any of you weenies provide me some good input on highland Lakes, NJ, I always see west milford spotter at 1100 ft pulls in solid numbers. Just closed on a home in the higher elevations. Home is at around 1420 feet or so in elevation. Looks like around 55-possibly 60 inches of snow a year? Looking forward to some decent t-storms too. I would say 50-55" a yr is a good bet. That West Milford spotter always inflates his numbers. In order to get into the 60"+ avg numbers your gonna have to either be on top of High Point or on the Shawangunk Ridge just NW of me.. I avg 55-60" here and I'm 18 miles NNW of Highland Lakes NJ.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted June 3, 2012 Share Posted June 3, 2012 I would say 50-55" a yr is a good bet. That West Milford spotter always inflates his numbers. In order to get into the 60"+ avg numbers your gonna have to either be on top of High Point or on the Shawangunk Ridge just NW of me.. I avg 55-60" here and I'm 18 miles NNW of Highland Lakes NJ.. I believe you have less elevation than Highland Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted June 3, 2012 Share Posted June 3, 2012 I would say 50-55" a yr is a good bet. That West Milford spotter always inflates his numbers. In order to get into the 60"+ avg numbers your gonna have to either be on top of High Point or on the Shawangunk Ridge just NW of me.. I avg 55-60" here and I'm 18 miles NNW of Highland Lakes NJ.. It should be interesting! My goal is to hold and own my location. my report will be at 1415 ft. I did the loop on my street, I figure that I honestly do own top elevation accurate reports in NJ outside high point. Do people live near high point at a good elevation? no! we have a home that peaks at 1450 +/- on my block. valley floor in vernon 418Ft. You really need to check your breaks if you drive to the valley floor in vernon to my home. My goal is to own and seek a big cat fish! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted June 3, 2012 Share Posted June 3, 2012 It should be interesting! My goal is to hold and own my location. my report will be at 1415 ft. I did the loop on my street, I figure that I honestly do own top elevation accurate reports in NJ outside high point. Do people live near high point at a good elevation? no! we have a home that peaks at 1450 +/- on my block. valley floor in vernon 418Ft. You really need to check your breaks if you drive to the valley floor in vernon to my home. My goal is to own and seek a big cat fish! This is the only one I can find in Highland Lakes... Its at 1350' http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KNJHIGHL6 Come winter time it should be pretty close in comparison to your new home.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 5, 2012 Share Posted June 5, 2012 I would say 50-55" a yr is a good bet. That West Milford spotter always inflates his numbers. In order to get into the 60"+ avg numbers your gonna have to either be on top of High Point or on the Shawangunk Ridge just NW of me.. I avg 55-60" here and I'm 18 miles NNW of Highland Lakes NJ.. I'd say that's a good estimate, though at nearly 1500' I'd err closer to 55" than 50". High Point is solidly 60", probably low 60s in my opinion. Most of West Milford b/t 1000-1400ft averages around 50-55". I agree some of the totals there seem inflated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 On the other hand, everything I see points to weak Nino right now. CFS, CFSv2, Euro....it all seems to point in that direction. Although maybe not all that useful so far out, the CFS H200 anomalies have a ridge poking into AK and the Bering Sea with signs of troughing in the northeast. Not even to july yet, and it looks like 4dvar will be wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 7, 2012 Author Share Posted June 7, 2012 Not even to july yet, and it looks like 4dvar will be wrong nino predictions are often over done this far out, and the models are already backing off from where they were Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 7, 2012 Author Share Posted June 7, 2012 I guess my concern is that I don't think everything will quite line up for our typical good winters. Of course they don't all have to line up, but I'm not sold on anything special right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 ENSO Alert System Status: El Nino WatchSynopsis: There is a 50% chance that El Niño conditions will develop during the second half of 2012. Today NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issued an El Nino Watch, indicating "there is a 50% chance that El Nino conditions will develop during the second half of 2012." http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted June 10, 2012 Share Posted June 10, 2012 over done and you can see there is a trend to go back towards weak nina, so if you average it out, la nada. Primary analogue is 01-02, secondary is 97-98, terciary is 68-69. 1997-8 was a super El Niño. 1968-9 was a moderate Niño with super-blocking. 2001-2 was a La Nada following a La Niña and sporadic blocking in the wrong places. Three very different winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted June 10, 2012 Share Posted June 10, 2012 1997-8 was a super El Niño. 1968-9 was a moderate Niño with super-blocking. 2001-2 was a La Nada following a La Niña and sporadic blocking in the wrong places. Three very different winters. and he uses them as concurrent analogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 10, 2012 Author Share Posted June 10, 2012 and he uses them as concurrent analogs. better call the analog police. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted June 11, 2012 Share Posted June 11, 2012 1 Miller A per winter isn't too much to ask for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 11, 2012 Share Posted June 11, 2012 Weak elnino....book it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 11, 2012 Author Share Posted June 11, 2012 1 Miller A per winter isn't too much to ask for especially when our area really does well because the storms are generally at their peak as they hit our latitude and we generally avoid the dry slot, but the atmosphere can take some time to turn around, so even we do get a weak nino, and that is still in doubt, it may not be enough to get the subtropical jet really going, in light of the two year nina we are coming out of. Split flow with a pseudo sub tropical jet would work too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 11, 2012 Share Posted June 11, 2012 I have no issues with a miller b....and 3-6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted June 11, 2012 Share Posted June 11, 2012 Miller A's have more moisture, biggest risk is an inland track and rain. Miller B's more likely to be all snow, biggest risk is misses N & E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 11, 2012 Author Share Posted June 11, 2012 Miller A's have more moisture, biggest risk is an inland track and rain. Miller B's more likely to be all snow, biggest risk is misses N & E. better chance IMHO to get screwed by the miller B, more so S and W of the NYC metro, than the rain/snow miller line in an A, if the blocking and 50/50 is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 11, 2012 Share Posted June 11, 2012 better call the analog police. Despite your sarcasm, the analogs you grouped as similar and a basis for you bad "winter" forecast are completely different...so i don't see the sense in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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