NEG NAO Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 7 of those 14 in the last 20 years - before that 7 in about 60 years - Unfortunately we are overdue for a long stretch of not so good winters a good winter has multiple storms 4" or more...Going back to 1933-34 there are 14 winters with at least four 4" storms....The storm track has to be good and development should be off the coast of Virginia and north... season.....four or more 4" snowfalls... 2010-11.....20.0".......9.1".......4.2".....19.0" 2009-10.....10.9".....10.0".......5.0".....20.9" 2004-05.....13.8".......5.0".......6.0".......7.7" 2003-04.....14.0".......5.8".......5.7".....10.3" 2002-03.......6.0".......5.0".......5.3".....19.8".......4.0" 1995-96.......7.7".....20.2".......7.5".....10.7".......4.5".......4.5".......4.1" 1993-94.......4.0".......4.5".......9.0".....12.8".......5.0" 1984-85.......4.8".......4.1".......4.3".......5.7" 1977-78.....13.6".....17.7".......4.2".......5.0" 1963-64.......6.6".....12.5".......6.8".......4.9" 1957-58.......8.0".......4.5".......4.5".......7.9".......4.1".....11.8" 1948-49.....16.0".......4.5".......4.6".......9.4" 1938-39.......8.8".......4.0".......8.8".......4.5" 1933-34.....11.2".......9.8".......7.6".......9.3".......5.6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted September 28, 2012 Share Posted September 28, 2012 7 of those 14 in the last 20 years - before that 7 in about 60 years - Unfortunately we are overdue for a long stretch of not so good winters The way the climate is now it is hard to assume that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted September 28, 2012 Share Posted September 28, 2012 The way the climate is now it is hard to assume that. One thing about the climate eventually it balances itself out - BUT doesn't mean we can't have some active winters in the near term BUT I would be very surprised if we have 7 more winters in the next 20 with the same criteria gauging active winters Uncle mentioned previously........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevbo81 Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 Joe Lundberg's post today was excellent. he's been harping on the 76-77 theme for a while now, and he has some sound reasoning behind it. Take a look. Penetrating Chill Waiting in the Wings http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/lundberg/penetrating-chi/82510 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 Joe Lundberg's post today was excellent. he's been harping on the 76-77 theme for a while now, and he has some sound reasoning behind it. Take a look. Penetrating Chill Waiting in the Wings http://www.accuweath...ating-chi/82510 January of that winter was just unreal! Snow was observed in Miami as well as the Bahamas! lol.. smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 the fall of 1976 was one of the coldest on record...there were many days ten or more degrees below average from October to February...The first record chill came at the end of August NYC tied an alltime record monthly minimum...October had two mornings one degree off the record monthly minimum...Early December 1976 had one of the earliest single digit mornings...That's a bench mark for cold winters...I doubt we will see a winter as cold as that...The el nino might end up la nada this year...TWT... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 the fall of 1976 was one of the coldest on record...there were many days ten or more degrees below average from October to February...The first record chill came at the end of August NYC tied an alltime record monthly minimum...October had two mornings one degree off the record monthly minimum...Early December 1976 had one of the earliest single digit mornings...That's a bench mark for cold winters...I doubt we will see a winter as cold as that...The el nino might end up la nada this year...TWT... That's a period I wish I could live through just to see the magnitude of the cold from fall-winter. I wonder when foliage peaked that fall, mid October? It's been awhile since we've seen a well below normal Sept/Oct couplet. Significantly colder than normal Sept, Oct, Nov, Dec, Jan, Feb as well but started to moderate, then March torched. So 6 consecutive months of major negative departures. 76-77 featured a perfect storm of ingredients -- tail end of the -PDO era which built up plenty of cold air globally (also following consecutive La Nina events), a weak Nino and climbing PDO, low solar activity, high latitude blocking, etc. Just a gorgeous H5 set-up from 1976 through 1979 really. Hopefully a period that will occur again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 the fall of 1976 was one of the coldest on record...there were many days ten or more degrees below average from October to February...The first record chill came at the end of August NYC tied an alltime record monthly minimum...October had two mornings one degree off the record monthly minimum...Early December 1976 had one of the earliest single digit mornings...That's a bench mark for cold winters...I doubt we will see a winter as cold as that...The el nino might end up la nada this year...TWT... all the bays and new york harbor / hudson river were frozen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 my uncles house in the poconos had no running water from late December to March that year...After that winter they re did the water mains and we had no problems after that...from the local climate for 76-77 from the end of August to mid February had one day 10 degrees below normal in August...nine in October...eight in November...twelve in December...thirteen in January and four in February...January alone was ten degrees below the monthly average...Those were 1941 to 1970 normals... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 Joe Lundberg's post today was excellent. he's been harping on the 76-77 theme for a while now, and he has some sound reasoning behind it. Take a look. Penetrating Chill Waiting in the Wings http://www.accuweath...ating-chi/82510 I met him at an event in Charleston. He seems like the main one that does not exaggerate events very much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 all the bays and new york harbor / hudson river were frozen The Maryland Bay was frozen with people and cars on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 Joe Lundberg's post today was excellent. he's been harping on the 76-77 theme for a while now, and he has some sound reasoning behind it. Take a look. Penetrating Chill Waiting in the Wings http://www.accuweath...ating-chi/82510 wow.... "lundberg" and "1977" in the same sentence is not something you hear every day. lundberg is very conservative.... he has never hyped anything in his life. and he loves warm weather in winter. he's always struck me as an exceptionally sound met. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 I am encouraged to see that this winter looks to be surely better than last, but mentioning 1977 from a personally conservative meteoloogist raises my eyebrow. talk about swinging for the fences already! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 winter 1976 - 1977 had 24.5 inches of snow at NYC and featured 2 days of temps in a row not getting above 10 degrees January 17 and 18 -at Newark , we haven't had that happen in a while around here - in fact thats been one of the "extremes " that has not happened during the last few years - Very Cold much below average record breaking temps - so we are overdue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 wow.... "lundberg" and "1977" in the same sentence is not something you hear every day. lundberg is very conservative.... he has never hyped anything in his life. and he loves warm weather in winter. he's always struck me as an exceptionally sound met. Larry Cosgrove also likes that analog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 this is not a good signal - if its right http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 Larry Cosgrove also likes that analog is he still doing the weather america updates? I stopped getting them now that I think about it (within the last month or two) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 this is not a good signal - if its right http://www.cpc.ncep....a/nao.sprd2.gif NAO was negative last year at the end of October with an east coast snow storm and where did that get us for the rest of the winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 this is not a good signal - if its right http://www.cpc.ncep....a/nao.sprd2.gif The AO became quite negative in late October 1976 and bottomed out in Mid January...The nao averaged positive the first week in October 76...The AO became vert negative late December and mid January...That's what we need to happen again if you are looking for record cold... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 not sure I agree with the 76-77 analog-we were coming out of a cold PDO period then--now, we're in the middle of one and the PDO is quite negative...unless that can pop slightly positive or even move up into less negative territory, I'm not sold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 is he still doing the weather america updates? I stopped getting them now that I think about it (within the last month or two) Yes he is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 Yes he is linky? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 linky? He posts a lot on Facebook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdrenken Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 linky? On my phone, but he has twitter and fb. Google is your friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 http://mobile.nytimes.com/2012/10/02/us/experts-see-signs-of-el-nino-but-a-weak-one.xml?f=21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 Hey guys, we are posting our winter outlook this weekend. Come check us out. https://www.facebook.com/hwpcwx www.hwpcwx.org Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 Accuweather.com released their finalized winter forecast, and just like their preliminary winter outlook, they have above normal snowfall for the NYC area. They are expecting more systems like February 26 2010, with rain into New England, and snow NYC South and west. http://www.accuweath...nyc/80787#link1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 Accuweather.com released their finalized winter forecast, and just like their preliminary winter outlook, they have above normal snowfall for the NYC area. They are expecting more systems like February 26 2010, with rain into New England, and snow NYC South and west. http://www.accuweath...nyc/80787#link1 I guess they are thinking that the storm track is going to be suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 I am shocked at Accuweather's forecast. Usually they go warm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 what a joke accuwx is--that storm from Feb of 10 is a rare breed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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