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Winter 2012-2013

TheTrials

By TheTrials,
in New York City Metro

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Diego

Diego

Posted
Posted

these are the years without a 6" snowfall in NYC...I hope I got them all...

2011-12...4.3"

2006-07...5.5"

2001-02...3.0"

1999-00...5.5"

1998-99...4.5"

1997-98...5.0"

1996-97...3.5"

1989-90...4.7"

1988-89...5.0"

1987-88...5.8"

1985-86...4.5"

1984-85...5.7"

1979-80...4.6"

1976-77...5.2"

1975-76...4.2"

1972-73...1.8"

1971-72...5.7"

1962-63...4.2"

1958-59...5.5"

1954-55...3.9"

1952-53...4.5"

1951-52...5.8"

1950-51...3.0"

1949-50...3.8"

1941-42...3.2"

1936-37...5.7"

1931-32...2.0"

1930-31...3.9"

1929-30...3.9"

1927-28...5.3"

1918-19...1.4"

1910-11...4.5"

1908-09...5.1"

1900-01...4.0"

1897-98...5.0"

1894-95...5.0"

This largest decadel groupings therein appear to correlate with the worst of the decades for snowfall, the 50's. 70's and 80's.

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uncle W

uncle W

Posted
Posted

Coldest and warmest Decembers during El Nino or weak positive ...

Coldest ave temp snowfall... largest snowfall includes Oct/Nov snowfall...

seven of the ten coldest December winters had over 30" of snowfall and at least one snowfall 10" or more......Only 58-59 had well below average snowfall...69-70 and 76-77 had near average snowfall...the top warmest had one winter with over 30" and a 10" or higher snowfall...1957-58...two winters with near average snowfall...seven below average...1982-83 had a storm of 18"...1994-95 an 11" storm...

1958...29.4.......3.8".......3.3"

1976...29.9.......5.1".......3.1"

1963...31.2.....11.3".......6.6"

1969...33.4.......6.8".......6.8"

1968...34.3.......7.0".......5.2"

1977...35.7.......0.6".......0.4"

2009...35.9.....12.4".....10.9"

2002...36.0.....11.0".......6.0"

1993...37.3.......6.9".......4.0"

2003...37.6.....19.8".....14.0"

warmest...

2006...43.6.........0.............0

1982...42.8.......3.0".......3.0"

1990...42.6.......7.2".......7.2"

1994...42.2.........T.............T

1953...41.3.......2.2".......2.2"

1979...41.1.......3.5".......3.5"

1965...40.5..........T............T

1957...40.2.......8.7".......8.0"

1991...39.6.......0.7".......0.7"

1987...39.5.......3.7".......2.6"

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earthlight

earthlight

Posted
Posted

The September JAMSTEC has a cold winter for most of the US followed by warm north/cool south spring - classic NIno signature. Doesn't mean much now, but I'd keep an eye on this model in the Oct and esp Nov issuance. It's had a better track record than most other models.

Agreed -- and I would also keep a very close eye on the NAO over the next month. It has been generally on the negative side of normal for some long duration periods this summer. It is very early still (very early) -- but this is usually around the time when I start to at least pay attention to it.

Always brings me back to a conversation we had in Nov 2010 about how encouraged we were in regards to the NAO being on the negative side of normal for several weeks -- and how the blockiness looked great for mid-late December.

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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted

Meteorologist Mike Masco

"Forecasters who are frantically revising their #winter outlooks based on the CFS model STOP NOW! Progress towards colder solutions continue to show up (AS I TOLD YOU THEY WOULD) .. The CFS erratic jump from blowtorch to cool is a testament to my chilly winter thoughts ahead! The websites that have reversed to warmer times ahead this winter should take a couple steps back !"

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Sundog

Sundog

Posted
Posted

Meteorologist Mike Masco

"Forecasters who are frantically revising their #winter outlooks based on the CFS model STOP NOW! Progress towards colder solutions continue to show up (AS I TOLD YOU THEY WOULD) .. The CFS erratic jump from blowtorch to cool is a testament to my chilly winter thoughts ahead! The websites that have reversed to warmer times ahead this winter should take a couple steps back !"

No one knows what will happen.

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
Posted

I got a feeling we will see an early snowfall again this year...early snowfalls come in cycles...the 1950's had their share...1952 and 1953 come to mind...The winter overall could end up disappointing like those 50's winters but that remains to be seen...

We've certainly seen a decrease in March snows the last few winters it seems, those active late November/early December stretches seem to go back and forth with March being active.

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snywx

snywx

Posted
Posted

I got a feeling we will see an early snowfall again this year...early snowfalls come in cycles...the 1950's had their share...1952 and 1953 come to mind...The winter overall could end up disappointing like those 50's winters but that remains to be seen...

We have had accumulating snow the last 3 yrs up this way.. Seems like the norm now.

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uncle W

uncle W

Posted
Posted

last winter had only 14 days with a trace of snow on the ground or a trace was recorded that day...it had three consecutive days with a trace or more...three consecutive days with 1" or more and one day 4" or more...no days 10" or more...How does this stack up to other winters with very few consecutive days with a trace, 1" and 4" days...

season.....T...1"...4"...10"

2011-12... 3...3 ...1 ... 0

2007-08... 4...4 ...4 ... 0

2006-07... 7...5 ...2 ... 0

2001-02... 4...3 ...0 ... 0

1998-99... 4...3 ...1 ... 0

1997-98... 3...2 ...1 ... 0

1996-97... 4...2 ...0 ... 0

1991-92... 7...4 ...2 ... 0

1990-91... 4...4 ...2 ... 0

1989-90... 6...4 ...2 ... 0

1988-89... 4...3 ...2 ... 0

1979-80... 7...3 ...1 ... 0

1974-75... 6...5 ...3 ... 0

1972-73... 3...2 ...0 ... 0

1954-55... 6...4 ...0 ... 0

1952-53... 7...3 ...1 ... 0

1951-52... 6...4 ...1 ... 0

1949-50... 3...3 ...0 ... 0

great years...

2010-11...54 54..27.. 16

1947-48...65 58..53.. 16

1960-61...38 32..30.. 10

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Isotherm

Isotherm

Posted
Posted

-7 at phl that feb for departure

Yeah I remember it was about as cold as it gets for mid/late feb. Many days barely hitting 32F when normals were approaching 45. The 2" of sleet layered with ice I had on VD stayed on the ground until early March b/c it was so darn cold and the density of the frzn pcpn was high.

I think you had mostly sleet in Holmdel for VD; the ZR/IP line ran SW-NE through Freehold, Colts Neck, up to Red Bank. I was raining at 22-27 degrees for most of the event, peaking at 32 before slipping back into the 20s. Anemometer froze up and stayed immobile for several days after, tons of tree damage in the area, particularly Tinton Falls and Little Silver.

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Allsnow

Allsnow

Posted
Posted

Yeah I remember it was about as cold as it gets for mid/late feb. Many days barely hitting 32F when normals were approaching 45. The 2" of sleet layered with ice I had on VD stayed on the ground until early March b/c it was so darn cold and the density of the frzn pcpn was high.

I think you had mostly sleet in Holmdel for VD; the ZR/IP line ran SW-NE through Freehold, Colts Neck, up to Red Bank. I was raining at 22-27 degrees for most of the event, peaking at 32 before slipping back into the 20s. Anemometer froze up and stayed immobile for several days after, tons of tree damage in the area, particularly Tinton Falls and Little Silver.

Yes, its prob one of the worse frz rain events for the jersey shore. Lets be honest very hard for those areas to hold low level cold like that. Just shows you how dense that artic air was. I moved already, but it was 100% sleet in Edison and Holmdel.....for removal stand point, march 07 was far worse

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blizzardof09

blizzardof09

Posted
Posted

I just think its way to early to issue a forecast based on some long range models that forecast 2-3 months ahead when even an amatuer knows there gonna change. We can establish that were heading into a weak nino, but one thing we cant determine is where the NAO/AO is gonna be as we head deep into october and november yet. By mid-late october there should be alot more clarity as what to expect. It does look better than last year at this time, although there isnt much of a direction to go but up from there lol

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blizzardof09

blizzardof09

Posted
Posted

He's no worse than most of our forecasters here.

One thing though. Alot of our forecasters here really do back up models that they believe have the right idea and not get fooled by what a model says everytime it flips, or atleast our valued forecasters; earthlight, bluewave, isotherm, uncle w ( who is the analog king haha ) etc. I cant stand the forecasters that change there tune by every model run when meanwhile they claim to be professional long range mets and there living on modelology not meteorology which most times than not will set you up for failure.

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blizzardof09

blizzardof09

Posted
Posted

I think you're right.

if you were to check things off as to what would be "ideal" for a good winter, the weak el nino you could do so as our best winters traditionally (not always are weak el nino's). the blocking, cold air build up in canada, alaska, siberia, canadian snow cover, stratospheric warming/cooling etc. dont think we'll get a good idea until deep into october and early november. cant wait for your winter outlook though earthlight, you always publish some great forecasts/synopsis's.

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uncle W

uncle W

Posted
Posted

a good winter has multiple storms 4" or more...Going back to 1933-34 there are 14 winters with at least four 4" storms....The storm track has to be good and development should be off the coast of Virginia and north...

season.....four or more 4" snowfalls...

2010-11.....20.0".......9.1".......4.2".....19.0"

2009-10.....10.9".....10.0".......5.0".....20.9"

2004-05.....13.8".......5.0".......6.0".......7.7"

2003-04.....14.0".......5.8".......5.7".....10.3"

2002-03.......6.0".......5.0".......5.3".....19.8".......4.0"

1995-96.......7.7".....20.2".......7.5".....10.7".......4.5".......4.5".......4.1"

1993-94.......4.0".......4.5".......9.0".....12.8".......5.0"

1984-85.......4.8".......4.1".......4.3".......5.7"

1977-78.....13.6".....17.7".......4.2".......5.0"

1963-64.......6.6".....12.5".......6.8".......4.9"

1957-58.......8.0".......4.5".......4.5".......7.9".......4.1".....11.8"

1948-49.....16.0".......4.5".......4.6".......9.4"

1938-39.......8.8".......4.0".......8.8".......4.5"

1933-34.....11.2".......9.8".......7.6".......9.3".......5.6"

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