TheTrials Posted May 30, 2012 Author Share Posted May 30, 2012 There is NOTHING that shows a Nina developing. Some data show the Nino strengthening, approaching moderate, and then leveling off at weak Nino. NOTHING shows a Nina developing. Even IF you extrapolated, that NIna probably wouldn't develop until summer 2013 on the most aggressive data. Not true, even WillORH says as much in his preliminary 2012-13 winter outlook posted last night. And for those looking for HM's solar thoughts, he posted them in the el nino thread in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 there are indications the suns activity is going to be picking up. I do believe the mighty HM has made reference to this. Dr. David Hathaway from NASA had to lower his SSN predictions for the maximum of Solar Cycle 24, because the sun was less active than he had forecasted. It still is less than what he forecasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 30, 2012 Author Share Posted May 30, 2012 Dr. David Hathaway from NASA had to lower his SSN predictions for the maximum of Solar Cycle 24, because the sun was less active than he had forecasted. It still is less than what he forecasted. great stuff, time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 http://solarscience....v/predict.shtml The current prediction for Sunspot Cycle 24 gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 60 in the Spring of 2013. We are currently over three years into Cycle 24. The current predicted size makes this the smallest sunspot cycle in about 100 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 Why make a prediction on something u kno nothing about...ur act is old...continue to look foolish...its not my name... If u enjoy making horrible calls...keep going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 30, 2012 Author Share Posted May 30, 2012 Why make a prediction on something u kno nothing about...ur act is old...continue to look foolish...its not my name... If u enjoy making horrible calls...keep going This is a hobbyists board, anyone is free to make a prediction and start a discussion. And speaking of looking foolish, your helen keller reference was extremely shallow, insensitive, and extremely offensive to anyone with an eye sight/hearing disability or any disability for that matter. Shame on you! I hope you never have to know what it's like to not be able to see or speak, or hear etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 This is a hobbyists board, anyone is free to make a prediction and start a discussion. And speaking of looking foolish, your helen keller reference was extremely, insensitive, and extremely offensive to anyone with an eye sight/hearing disability or any disability for that matter. Shame on you! I hope you never have to know what it's like to not be able to see or speak, or hear etc. Your calls are no better then mike the hobbyist Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 LOL, you mean we didn't just have the coldest may on record or whatever he said a month ago? Your calls are no better then mike the hobbyist Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 After last winter anything close to normal will be appreciated . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 Don't wanna disrespect you but you did say all last summer that last winter was going to rock. No offense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 30, 2012 Author Share Posted May 30, 2012 Don't wanna disrespect you but you did say all last summer that last winter was going to rock. No offense. None taken. I had that way wrong, as did a lot of people. Not that if makes it better, but I bailed on the winter in early January, while many were still predicting big things. messed up the year before too. Was much better the year before that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 None taken. I had that way wrong, as did a lot of people. Not that if makes it better, but I bailed on the winter in early January, while many were still predicting big things. messed up the year before too. Was much better the year before that Yup, you threw in the towel early last year as the winter unfolded. A lot of us had false hope. A weak nino can't hurt us this year, and hopefully the blocking will be back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 Quite frankly, I hate being wrong and I learned my lesson after last year's bust. No more winter outlook in October. I've had pretty good success in the 3 winters before, but I'll probably wait until a few days before December from now on, as to better gauge the pattern for Dec. I issued my summer outlook a couple days ago for similar reasons. Thus I have no thoughts on next winter right now, other than our chances will be better if we can get a weak nino. But even then, the NAO trends will be tough to tell. As I said, waiting to see what the pattern for early/mid Dec will be is a major help in terms of correlations per my research. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 Quite frankly, I hate being wrong and I learned my lesson after last year's bust. No more winter outlook in October. I've had pretty good success in the 3 winters before, but I'll probably wait until a few days before December from now on, as to better gauge the pattern for Dec. I issued my summer outlook a couple days ago for similar reasons. Thus I have no thoughts on next winter right now, other than our chances will be better if we can get a weak nino. But even then, the NAO trends will be tough to tell. As I said, waiting to see what the pattern for early/mid Dec will be is a major help in terms of correlations per my research. I dont think anyone could have predicted how bad last winter would be lol. Especially when we just had a spectacular winter the year before. Looking forward to your outlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 I knew we were in trouble when the AO was very positive in November...I did think the first two weeks of February would be cold and snowy...it wasn't but my area had two dustings the first week or so...it was a disaster but lost in warmth was the snowiest October on record giving us three straight winters with a record snowy month... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 I predict that snowfall amounts next winter will be at or above last year's totals (not including the October snow of course.) I know this forecast is out there but I'm a risk taker by nature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 31, 2012 Author Share Posted May 31, 2012 I predict that snowfall amounts next winter will be at or above last year's totals (not including the October snow of course.) I know this forecast is out there but I'm a risk taker by nature. why are you excluding the biggest winter storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Why would anybody take this winter forecast remotely serious in May?..it's a waste of a thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Simply put, if it snows again in October, we may be screwed. See what the pattern looks like the last week of November, first week of December and then base your winter outlook off of that because winter patterns tend to lock in early. Then they either stay consistent for a month to a month and a half, flip in the middle of winter, or they lock in early and stay that way through mid February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 I expect a predominant +NA0/+AO with an active sun, coupled with a weak enso signal could spell disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 31, 2012 Author Share Posted May 31, 2012 I expect a predominant +NA0/+AO with an active sun, coupled with a weak enso signal could spell disaster first and last time i will agree with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 why are you excluding the biggest winter storm? Because I got nothing with the wind off the sound so that storm is dead to me. It wasn't a real storm anyway. If I include it I would be acting like those guys in New England that got 20 inches from that storm pretending they were normal in the snowfall department as of New Years meanwhile they didn't see a flake all of November and December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 None taken. I had that way wrong, as did a lot of people. Not that if makes it better, but I bailed on the winter in early January, while many were still predicting big things. messed up the year before too. Was much better the year before that LOL-you were harping a pattern change all the way to 2/1 and then you fled the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Simply put, if it snows again in October, we may be screwed. See what the pattern looks like the last week of November, first week of December and then base your winter outlook off of that because winter patterns tend to lock in early. Then they either stay consistent for a month to a month and a half, flip in the middle of winter, or they lock in early and stay that way through mid February. Makes last year quite the anomoly---warmth locked in in early November and went straight through April! A literal repeat of 01-02 with regard to sensible weather for the NYC area.... One cold week in January and that was it. Historic busts from DT, JB, KA, LC and crew Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 LOL-you were harping a pattern change all the way to 2/1 and then you fled the board. Lmao...this..called for a snowy february..then left..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 31, 2012 Author Share Posted May 31, 2012 LOL-you were harping a pattern change all the way to 2/1 and then you fled the board. no way, bailed in January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 31, 2012 Author Share Posted May 31, 2012 Lmao...this..called for a snowy february..then left..lol find the post lawn mower boy when i called for a snowy february sometime after the 1st week of January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 31, 2012 Author Share Posted May 31, 2012 LOL-you were harping a pattern change all the way to 2/1 and then you fled the board. isn't JB still calling for this? how much money you giving him now for his free forecasts he posts on twitter, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 31, 2012 Author Share Posted May 31, 2012 Lmao...this..called for a snowy february..then left..lol LOL-you were harping a pattern change all the way to 2/1 and then you fled the board. here you go, started an embrace the snowless winter thread 1/13 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/31857-top-10-reasons-to-embrace-the-snowless-winter/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.