CooL Posted September 11, 2012 Share Posted September 11, 2012 this is still looking good And i expect a predominant -NAO/-AO and a sleeping sun. Does that make me any more believable than you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 November's before our snowiest winters...it looks like the storm track is more important than temperatures...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 November's before our snowiest winters...it looks like the storm track is more important than temperatures...... Keep this in mind, from me and T. Gigi from Mt Holly... Temperature in October and precipitation in November. Of course, that would have given us a normal winter last year, but the bad thing was that the pattern was trending worse, not better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 ovember before our least snowiest winters...the storm track is more inland than the snowiest winters and temperatures are still above average... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 ovember before our least snowiest winters...the storm track is more inland than the snowiest winters and temperatures are still above average... Look at the direction of the storm track, that's more important. In the snowless years, the storm track is more W-E. In the snowy years, it is more S-N, indicating more amplification/troughiness in the East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 Look at the direction of the storm track, that's more important. In the snowless years, the storm track is more W-E. In the snowy years, it is more S-N, indicating more amplification/troughiness in the East. And of course the S-N orientation allows more moisture from the gulf to be tapped into as well as making it easier for storms to bomb out along the eastern coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 And of course the S-N orientation allows more moisture from the gulf to be tapped into as well as making it easier for storms to bomb out along the eastern coast. I wasn't really talking about that so much. North of DC, you can get a good snowstorm with Atlantic moisture from a MIller B. Storms that move flat West to East just have a tendency to be drier, faster-moving, and warmer. Not to mention a pattern like that is flooded with Pacific air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 precipitation for our snowiest winters...Dec-Mar... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 CFSv2 backed down from the torch for the winter. CFSv1 still shows below normal temps for the winter. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/htmls/usT2me3Mon.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 On the latest plume, El Nino looks to be weak for the upcoming winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 Looks like a 95% chance there is a weak nino in store for this winter. Cross our fingers and hope for the best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 Looks like a 95% chance there is a weak nino in store for this winter. Cross our fingers and hope for the best so thats one good piece of news for winter as of now. lets get some cold air and blocking by december and we'll be set Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 Looks like a 95% chance there is a weak nino in store for this winter. Cross our fingers and hope for the best This winter will come to the NAO once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 This winter will come to the NAO once again. atleast we got a weak nino a weenies pot of gold. i just hope this blocking regime doesnt reverse in time for winter and we get stuck with a positive nao pretty much making the weak el nino nill and useless lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 22, 2012 Share Posted September 22, 2012 a weak nino is no guarantee we will have a good winter...There is no guarantee we will get a weak el nino...It might end up a weak positive...here are some weak analogs that were not great winters and some that were... 1952-53...Started off great but nothing after the middle of January... 1953-54...Had a cold and snowy January but the rest of the winter was mild and snowless... 1958-59...Cold but snowless... 1969-70...very cold with average snowfall... 1979-80...mild and snowless... 1976-77...very cold with average snowfall... 1990-91...mild with average snowfall... 1992-93...mild first half...Cold and snowy second half... 1993-94...Cold and snowy/icy... 2003-04...Cold and snowy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted September 22, 2012 Share Posted September 22, 2012 a weak nino is no guarantee we will have a good winter...There is no guarantee we will get a weak el nino...It might end up a weak positive...here are some weak analogs that were not great winters and some that were... 1952-53...Started off great but nothing after the middle of January... 1953-54...Had a cold and snowy January but the rest of the winter was mild and snowless... 1958-59...Cold but snowless... 1969-70...very cold with average snowfall... 1979-80...mild and snowless... 1976-77...very cold with average snowfall... 1990-91...mild with average snowfall... 1992-93...mild first half...Cold and snowy second half... 1993-94...Cold and snowy/icy... 2003-04...Cold and snowy... you missed 63-64,77-78 and 02-03 which were weak,and great winters..overall I think a weak nino gives us the best shot of a decent winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted September 22, 2012 Share Posted September 22, 2012 @keith L.I.- weak el ninos are our best shot at getting a great winter but uncle W is right they can also be stinkers, although not as bad as la nina winters. My biggest worry currently is a blocking reversal and lack of cold air as winter starts. Were still on a above average temp regime so its a little worrisome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted September 22, 2012 Share Posted September 22, 2012 @keith L.I.- weak el ninos are our best shot at getting a great winter but uncle W is right they can also be stinkers, although not as bad as la nina winters. My biggest worry currently is a blocking reversal and lack of cold air as winter starts. Were still on a above average temp regime so its a little worrisome you are right - for the psychology of this board we need to get off to a fast start rather then one of those starts where winter doesn't get going until the second or 3rd week in January - we are about a degree above avg in september so far - things to watch going through the fall is the buildup of the snowcover in canada and of course the NAO which should bring more troughs into the east if it is negative .............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted September 22, 2012 Share Posted September 22, 2012 The September JAMSTEC has a cold winter for most of the US followed by warm north/cool south spring - classic NIno signature. Doesn't mean much now, but I'd keep an eye on this model in the Oct and esp Nov issuance. It's had a better track record than most other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 22, 2012 Share Posted September 22, 2012 you missed 63-64,77-78 and 02-03 which were weak,and great winters..overall I think a weak nino gives us the best shot of a decent winter 77-78 was weak but it was a second year nino...the other two were more on the moderate side...2006-07 was on the weak side also...If the AO goes negative big time in November we'll see a great start to the winter...I thought last year was going to be another good winter after Octobers snowstorm...I'll be watching for blocking to develope in November and stay for a while...If not we will get off to a slow start like 1965, 1994 and 2006... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted September 22, 2012 Share Posted September 22, 2012 NEG-NAO and bluewave the jamstec looks promising as an overall better look for the beginning of winter. One thing that id like to start seeing or atleast see some signs of is some cold air coming into play into canada this next month and a half so the snowcover as neg nao said can help the cold air be more powerful as it moves into our area and be more aiding for possible snow storm possibilities as we head into december. Furthermore the blocking needs to continue as well and not pretty much reverse for winter and stay positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 22, 2012 Share Posted September 22, 2012 Weak ENSO signal is the best for us, lol. I do not like near neutrals falling after La Ninas though its based on a small sample set, there have been 4 the last 30 years, 85-86, 89-90, 96-97, and 01-02 and all were very poor. Its hard to say if thats just coincidence or not because prior to 1985 there were no neutral following Ninas dating all the way back to 1950. There is also the near neutral near the solar max cycle having some stinkers too, 89-90 and 01-02 fit that bill and 78-79 and 79-80 (closer to a Nino) are a few others. I definitely will feel better if we see the ENSO index reach 0.5-0.7 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted September 23, 2012 Share Posted September 23, 2012 I have come to the conclusion that it is next to impossible to accurately predict snowfall amounts in NYC Metro for a season in advance just look at the wide variations in amounts from year to year - example - last year many forecasters predicted avg to above avg snowfall and we got less then 10 inches total - other years only avg to below avg snowfall for the season was predicted and one big storm doubled the expected total snowfall - just look at this and try to make sense out of it http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/records/monthseasonsnowfall.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 23, 2012 Share Posted September 23, 2012 Crazy to see the big drop off in snowfall after two of our snowiest winters...10-11 and 95-96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 23, 2012 Share Posted September 23, 2012 I have come to the conclusion that it is next to impossible to accurately predict snowfall amounts in NYC Metro for a season in advance just look at the wide variations in amounts from year to year - example - last year many forecasters predicted avg to above avg snowfall and we got less then 10 inches total - other years only avg to below avg snowfall for the season was predicted and one big storm doubled the expected total snowfall - just look at this and try to make sense out of it http://www.erh.noaa....onsnowfall.html You can make an attempt after you see what the October and November pattern looks like. Last year's forecast of very little snow for us was an easier winter forecast than we usually get. Once the October pattern showed the blocking setting up in the Russian Arctic, the low snowfall forecasts were a slam dunk with the ENSO conditions .When we see where the blocking sets up in October across the Northern Hemisphere, we'll have some clues as to what the winter may look like. But specific snowfall amount forecasts are very challenging. You can count yourself ahead of the game if you can at least get below, near, or above normal ranges correct for our area. You can even get a winter with a great blocking developing like February 2007 but miss out on a big snowfall. The Valentine's Day ice special was a good example of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 23, 2012 Share Posted September 23, 2012 It's only a one year snow drought but does it continue...There were six stinkers around here from the 1949-50 to 1954-55...The late 1920's and early thirties were bad snow years...the late 1990's were horrible...nine great winters in the last 20 years...That's not to shabby...we also have nine stinkers...it's feast or famine... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 23, 2012 Share Posted September 23, 2012 It's only a one year snow drought but does it continue...There were six stinkers around here from the 1949-50 to 1954-55...The late 1920's and early thirties were bad snow years...the late 1990's were horrible...nine great winters in the last 20 years...That's not to shabby...we also have nine stinkers...it's feast or famine... Yeah after 96 what a string of duds...but compared to last year i would take them....nyc i believe went a few years without 6+ snowfall after 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 23, 2012 Share Posted September 23, 2012 Yeah after 96 what a string of duds...but compared to last year i would take them....nyc i believe went a few years without 6+ snowfall after 96 these are the years without a 6" snowfall in NYC...I hope I got them all... 2011-12...4.3" 2006-07...5.5" 2001-02...3.0" 1999-00...5.5" 1998-99...4.5" 1997-98...5.0" 1996-97...3.5" 1989-90...4.7" 1988-89...5.0" 1987-88...5.8" 1985-86...4.5" 1984-85...5.7" 1979-80...4.6" 1976-77...5.2" 1975-76...4.2" 1972-73...1.8" 1971-72...5.7" 1962-63...4.2" 1958-59...5.5" 1954-55...3.9" 1952-53...4.5" 1951-52...5.8" 1950-51...3.0" 1949-50...3.8" 1941-42...3.2" 1936-37...5.7" 1931-32...2.0" 1930-31...3.9" 1929-30...3.9" 1927-28...5.3" 1918-19...1.4" 1910-11...4.5" 1908-09...5.1" 1900-01...4.0" 1897-98...5.0" 1894-95...5.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted September 23, 2012 Share Posted September 23, 2012 It looks like if we used 5 inches as a threshold we'd be able to throw like half of those years out. I wonder what the numbers for winters with at least one 7+ inch storm look like. There's probably a huge shift going from 5 to 7 inches as a minimum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 23, 2012 Share Posted September 23, 2012 It looks like if we used 5 inches as a threshold we'd be able to throw like half of those years out. I wonder what the numbers for winters with at least one 7+ inch storm look like. There's probably a huge shift going from 5 to 7 inches as a minimum. to many to list...since 1890 there are 69 of the 123 winters with at least a 7" storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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