NEG NAO Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 One of these years there is going to be an actual snowstorm greater then 6 inches that starts early on Christmas day before 6 am - just been pure coincidence it hasn't happened in NYC since records have been kept -I am sure it happened many times before that - records have ponly been kept much less then 1 % of the earths existence - 2010 came very close and so did other years such as 1947 and 1966 to name a few...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 One of these years there is going to be an actual snowstorm greater then 6 inches that starts early on Christmas day before 6 am - just been pure coincidence it hasn't happened in NYC since records have been kept -I am sure it happened many times before that - records have ponly been kept much less then 1 % of the earths existence - 2010 came very close and so did other years such as 1947 and 1966 to name a few...... the 1966 snowstorm ended before dawn Christmas Morning...1961 saw snow on the evening of the 23rd that changed to rain and sleet briefly on the morning of the 24th...It changed back to snow and ended at dusk on the 24th...1963's storm started on the 23rd in the afternoon and changed to sleet and freezing drizzle after dark...It ended as a dusting of snow early on the 24th...That evening around dusk there was a snow shower that whitened the ground for good measure...2002 was the closest to having a real white Christmas but it was rain from say 5am to 1pm...It started around midnight Christmas Eve as light snow but changed to rain during the morning...there were a few near misses in the 1960's... 1960.....some snow left over from the 12/11-12 storm... 1961.....6" fresh snow... 1962.....trace on the ground Christmas morning from 3" of snow to rain on the 21-22nd...0.3" of snow and ice Christmas day...rain at night... 1963.....6" of freah snow... 1964.....3" of snow 12/20 melts Christmas Eve...warm Christmas... 1965.....warm wet Christmas... 1966.....7" fresh snow... 1967.....1" on the 23rd...trace on the ground Christmas morning... 1968.....cold brown Christmas...snow on the 28th... 1969.....Snow Christmas night...Snow/rain on the 26th... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 But there are alot of dates like that. For example despite all the big storms around President's day the record for February 18th is just 3.5" from 1928 meanwhile all the dates around it have significantly higher record totals. Groundhog day is just 5" and that record has stood for 138 years! I know there are many days like that..but not to snow more than a inch in 45 years on a late December day?..that would be the most awesome day for snow..but I have only seen it once..1966..I was 8 years old..if I knew it would be the only time I would have taken pictures of the snowstorm..oh well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 I've still yet to see a snowstorm on xmas eve.....what a dream that would be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 I've still yet to see a snowstorm on xmas eve.....what a dream that would be. I saw some snow on December 24,2002 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 it's amost time to start thinking about how next winter will turn out...Hopefully nothing like last year...Octobers storm not with standing...The last three winters set record monthly snowfalls for October, January and February...it's been all or nothing at all for snow lovers...2008-09 is the closest to the average over the last twenty years... The average seasonal snowfall in Central Park for the last 20 years is 29.7"... Seasons when snowfall was: 00-09.9".....3 10-19.9".....6 20-29.9".....2 30-39.9".....1 40-49.9".....4 50-59.9".....2 60-69.9".....1 70-79.9".....1 nine of the twenty winters had under 20" of snowfall...45%...Nine had over 30"...45%...Two were in the 20's...10%...Eight had over 40"...40%...four were over 50"...20%...three were under 10"...15%...This year could be an average snowfall season...Somewhere around 25-30"... edit...eleven of the last twenty years had a snowfall 10" or greater...55%...Probably more than any other 20 year period... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 white Christmas's and New Years... season...Christmas New Years morning snow cover... 1947-48........1".......15" 2.5" 12/23... 26.4" 12/26-27 rain and snow New Years day... 1948-49........5"........5" 16.0" 12/20 ... 5" snowfall New Years Day... 1960-61........1"........T 1961-62........6"........1" 6" 12/23-24...Snow cover lasts past New years... 1963-64........5"........2" 6" 12/23-24...Snow cover lasts past New Years...Snow/sleet/rain New Years day... 1966-67........7"........T 7" 12/24-25...Snow cover wiped out by heavy rain 12/28... 1967-68........T.........3" 3" New Years morning... 1970-71........T.........6" 6" New Years Day... 1975-76........1"........1" 0.5" Christmas Day turns to rain...rain to snow early New Years morning before ending... 1980-81........1"........T 1993-94........T.........3" 2009-10........2"........T 1947-48, 1948-49, 1961-62, 1963-64, 1975-76 had 1" or more on the ground both mornings... Didn't you forget 1995-96? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 Didn't you forget 1995-96? I can't access the utah climate center so I'm going on memory...I know central Park had at least 2" Christmas Morning but I thought it melted by New Years day?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 One of these years there is going to be an actual snowstorm greater then 6 inches that starts early on Christmas day before 6 am - just been pure coincidence it hasn't happened in NYC since records have been kept -I am sure it happened many times before that - records have ponly been kept much less then 1 % of the earths existence - 2010 came very close and so did other years such as 1947 and 1966 to name a few...... In 1991 the longer range models were indicating a very big snow storm for Christmas day but the phase missed, that one had a chance to be the biggest storm since 1983 at the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 In 1991 the longer range models were indicating a very big snow storm for Christmas day but the phase missed, that one had a chance to be the biggest storm since 1983 at the time. really how many days out and what model?..there were flurries on Christmas morning 1991 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 03 and 10 both had a parade of coastal storms beginning in autumn. the current global sst profile looks closer to 06 than 02 or 09 now: 06: 09: 02: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 I remember September 2002 having a coastal event...2002 went from hot and dry to cool and damp fast...back in October 1982 we had a large noreaster come up the coast...February 1983 a similar storm track into arctic air giving us 18" of snow...After last years October storm I thought we would see a similar one in the winter but it never came...the top analog for the 2002-03 winter was 1957-58...That worked out well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 I remember September 2002 having a coastal event...2002 went from hot and dry to cool and damp fast...back in October 1982 we had a large noreaster come up the coast...February 1983 a similar storm track into arctic air giving us 18" of snow...After last years October storm I thought we would see a similar one in the winter but it never came...the top analog for the 2002-03 winter was 1957-58...That worked out well... The autumn of 1982 was a truly warm autumn...70's and low 80's were common in November and there were even some 70's during the first 10 days of December. The winter that followed was mild but fairly stormy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 Through about 1975, the coldest low of the year in Central Park averaged around 0 F. I still see places that have NYC's hardiness zone as 6b (-5F to 0F) which is pretty much restricted to northern Westchester/Rockland counties these days. The majority of the UHI falls under 7b (5F to 10F) based on 1976-2005 averages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 I can't access the utah climate center so I'm going on memory...I know central Park had at least 2" Christmas Morning but I thought it melted by New Years day?... ' I don't remember that it melted here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 We're definitely not gonna get the +PDO that we had in 2002. The niño will probably be weaker this time around than in 2006, though, and hopefully more west-based as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diego Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 ' I don't remember that it melted here... It could not have fully melted. Problem is the snowcover data for Central Park is missing for the period of 12/23/95 through 12/31/95. But it rec'd a total of 7.7" of snow on the 19th and 20th, had 7" on the ground on the 22nd, and the temps from 12/22 to 12/25 - ranging from the mid to upper 30's to the mid to upper 20's, insured a residual snowcover on the 25th. See climo data for 12/95 below. Fyi, LGF was a rare winner for the storm on the 19th and 20th, receiving a tolal of 14.9" with 6" on the gd on the 25th(EWR rec'd 10.1" with 4" on the gd on the 25th and JFK 8" with 3" on the gd on the 25th). NY Climo.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 We're definitely not gonna get the +PDO that we had in 2002. The niño will probably be weaker this time around than in 2006, though, and hopefully more west-based as well. So since accuweather is predicting a cold and snowy winter for the Wash - NYC - Bos corridor, can we pretty much cancel winter now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Latest JAMSTEC torches the fall, and winter is definitely a step back from the last run, though we'd all take it in comparison to the endless torture that characterized last winter. Depicts a west QBO, neg NAO type set-up with Canada and northern US warm. Southern tier more exciting relative to norms. Looks like a warmer version of 02 and 57. Of course it'll change many times in the future, but interesting to note nonetheless.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 The CFS shows normal temps for the winter. Take it with a grain of salt. It changes almost every week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Thought I'd add to this thread Sea Surface Temps Maps from this time in 2002 when comparing 2002 and 2012 since it is being discussed that 2002 is a possible analog or some variation thereof. Based on what I saw in another thread about the current Sea Surface Temps, we have some work to do especially in the Pacific: August 19, 2012: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/35821-august-2012-observations-and-discussions/page__st__455#entry1711900 August 23, 2002: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 http://donswaim.com/wcbs-gordon-barnes-2-9-75.mp3 Look what I found..Feb 12th 1975..the only real snowstorm that winter..here's WCBS AM the way it sounded that day with weatherman Gordon Barnes..enjoy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 http://donswaim.com/wcbs-gordon-barnes-2-9-75.mp3 Look what I found..Feb 12th 1975..the only real snowstorm that winter..here's WCBS AM the way it sounded that day with weatherman Gordon Barnes..enjoy great find...we got 7-9" from that storm...the second storm that week...It got mild a few days after and the snow melted fast... http://bus.nycsubway.org/perl/show?1043 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 great find...we got 7-9" from that storm...the second storm that week...It got mild a few days after and the snow melted fast... http://bus.nycsubway.../perl/show?1043 I remember I had the day off from school..It was Lincoln's birthday..remember that?..i think this could have been the first 6+ snowfall since 1/1/71..imagine 4 years between 6+ snowfalls? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 I remember I had the day off from school..It was Lincoln's birthday..remember that?..i think this could have been the first 6+ snowfall since 1/1/71..imagine 4 years between 6+ snowfalls? it was a two week winter in 1975...the other biggest snowfall from 1/1/71 to 1/19/78 is 6.0" 2/8/74 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 Whats worrisome with this upcoming winter is worldwide there is hardly any sustained cold weather as of now. I know its early in september but i really cant see as far as cold weather goes this year being cooler than winter 11/12. As of right now doesnt look to promising the map someone posted of the temp anomolies worldwide just looks warm to say the least. Beginning of winter may be very dull atleast december i think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 Whats worrisome with this upcoming winter is worldwide there is hardly any sustained cold weather as of now. I know its early in september but i really cant see as far as cold weather goes this year being cooler than winter 11/12. As of right now doesnt look to promising the map someone posted of the temp anomolies worldwide just looks warm to say the least. Beginning of winter may be very dull atleast december i think We're just in a warmer climate now so everything will be above the so called norms, it does'nt mean we won't see a cooler month or two every now and then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted September 10, 2012 Share Posted September 10, 2012 I expect a predominant +NA0/+AO with an active sun, coupled with a weak enso signal could spell disaster first and last time i will agree with you. this is still looking good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted September 11, 2012 Share Posted September 11, 2012 this is still looking good Weak ENSO signal is the best for us, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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