Winter 2012-2013

[Guest Pamela]

My totals for the 2002-2005 trio were 55", 43", and 47" respectively -- all excellent winters. 05-06 not bad either with 32".

Really I've only had 4 sub par winters since 2000: 2001-02, 2006-07, 2007-08, and 2011-12. The demarcation line seemed to be b/t PHL and CNJ for majority snowy vs majority bad winters in 2000s. From PHL southwest, of the 2000s, I think only 02-03, 09-10, and 10-11 were good (cross out 10-11 for south of the M/D line).

Yeah that was a heck of a stretch out at Upton...2002-03 had 62.1"....2003-04 had 60.2"...and 2004-04 had 78.5"...it will be awhile before I see 3 years like that again.

http://www.bnl.gov/w...hlySnowfall.htm

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah that was a heck of a stretch out at Upton...2002-03 had 62.1"....2003-04 had 60.2"...and 2004-04 had 78.5"...it will be awhile before I see 3 years like that again.

http://www.bnl.gov/w...hlySnowfall.htm

'66-'67 was always a neat looking snow winter...LI got absolutely crushed in Feb/Mar (along with SNE) while further west was still good, but not as anomalously great. That winter was just terrible in January.

[Guest Pamela]

'66-'67 was always a neat looking snow winter...LI got absolutely crushed in Feb/Mar (along with SNE) while further west was still good, but not as anomalously great. That winter was just terrible in January.

The 60+ inches Upton saw in February and March 1967 were heavily aided by picking up 17.2" in the 2/6/67 blizzard and 16.0" in the 3/21/67 storm.

[ORH_wxman]

The 60+ inches Upton saw in February and March 1967 were heavily aided by picking up 17.2" in the 2/6/67 blizzard and 16.0" in the 3/21/67 storm.

The 77.4" of snow here that fell after Feb 1st still remains the record. January 1967 remains the 2nd least snowiest January on record here (2.5")...a jekyll and hyde winter but overall ended up being a big one because of just how prolific Feb/Mar were (and even a 7"+ storm in April). 2 prolific months will outweigh 1 stinkbomb any winter.

[Guest Pamela]

The 60+ inches Upton saw in February and March 1967 were heavily aided by picking up 17.2" in the 2/6/67 blizzard and 16.0" in the 3/21/67 storm.

On the two days preceding the 3/21/67 storm, Upton recorded their latest (in the season) below zero readings... -7.5 F on the 19th and -2 F on the 20th.

http://www.bnl.gov/weather/4cast/03-martemp.html

[ORH_wxman]

On the two days preceding the 3/21/67 storm, Upton recorded their latest (in the season) below zero readings... -7.5 F on the 19th and -2 F on the 20th.

http://www.bnl.gov/w...03-martemp.html

Yeah, that airmass was unbelievable. March 19, 1967 is the latest below 0F reading here as well. For snowfall, it wasn't quite as prolific as March 2001, 1993, 1958, or 1956 here, but it probably had the most impressive combo of multiple large storms and cold airmasses of any of the Marches in the past 60+ years.

It seems in the past 25 years or so, December and January have taken the lion's share of the impressive winter months....as opposed to all those great February and Marches of the late 50s through late 70s. We've only had one February over 30" since 1983...that was 2003. From 1962-1983, there was 5 of them. From 1956-1984 (28 years), there were 6 Marches over 25"....the 28 years since then, only 2...those being 1993 and 2001. (though there's been many between 20-25")

It will be interesting to see if that starts to swing back the other way.

[Guest Pamela]

We've only had one February over 30" since 1983

The January 15th to February 15th period in 1983 was a great period for snow in Worcester...with three storms of 1 foot or more....1st on January 15th...the 2nd on February 6th...and the 3rd on February 12th. With the redesign (i.e. ruination) of the Utah Climate Center Page...exact figures are hard to nail down...

[ORH_wxman]

The January 15th to February 15th period in 1983 was a great period for snow in Worcester...with three storms of 1 foot or more....1st on January 15th...the 2nd on February 6th...and the 3rd on February 12th. With the redesign (i.e. ruination) of the Utah Climate Center Page...exact figures are hard to nail down...

I hate the new design, but I'm starting to figure it out. Just ignore the weird hundreths column for snowfall and round to the tenth and the values appear to be correct. It took me about 2 hours to figure out how to get old coop stations that aren't active anymore.

And yes, that was a great period...really the only one that winter, but it salvaged an otherwise very warm and snowless winter outside of that prolific period.

[Guest Pamela]

I hate the new design, but I'm starting to figure it out. Just ignore the weird hundreths column for snowfall and round to the tenth and the values appear to be correct. It took me about 2 hours to figure out how to get old coop stations that aren't active anymore.

And yes, that was a great period...really the only one that winter, but it salvaged an otherwise very warm and snowless winter outside of that prolific period.

By Saturday, February 12th, 1983 ...Worcester had 28" on the ground...a very good depth in the midst of an exceptionally mild winter.

[ORH_wxman]

By Saturday, February 12th, 1983 ...Worcester had 28" on the ground...a very good depth in the midst of an exceptionally mild winter.

How did LI do in the Feb '83 storm? (Kocin book is not handy at the moment)...I recall them doing a bit better than the city.

That winter was obviously mostly a one trick pony down there...though you may have gotten a piece of the Dec '82 fluke.

And yes, that is a very impressive depth considering the mild winter. We only have made that depth once since 2004-2005...and that was obviously 2010-2011 (albeit for a very lengthy 3 week period of >28"). Several times over the 20" mark, but never really threatened 28" other than '10-'11.

[Guest Pamela]

How did LI do in the Feb '83 storm? (Kocin book is not handy at the moment)...I recall them doing a bit better than the city.

That winter was obviously mostly a one trick pony down there...though you may have gotten a piece of the Dec '82 fluke.

Truth be told...I think JFK and LGA did the best with the 2/11/83 event each with 22"....most of L.I. was in the 17 to 20 inch range...there was some exceptional convective activity maximizing over the city around 0z on the 12th.

The 12/11/82 event was a neat one....around 4 to 5 inches in Nassau County and up to 7" on the East End....and 14" out on the Cape....well known "Snowplow" game at Foxboro.

The 1/14/82 event had WSW's flying around here...though it produced just an inch or two as most was rain ...Ed / NorthShoreWx related to me a local 5" reading on the N. Shore near Syosset...years after the fact....the co-op at Centerport / Vanderbilt Museum near Huntington saw 3" officially, IIRC....good snows were in Albany...two feet there.

Generally 2 to 5 inches... more north less south.... the 2/7/83 event hugged the coast and came ashore around KJFK....went to rain around 13z...White Plains managed 7", I think.

March was quiet....April was incredibly wet....on the morning of the 19th....parts of Nassau picked up a quick 3" of snow prior to sunrise as a disturbance organized off Hatteras...hugged the coast a bit too much and that went to rain by 8 AM here....8" in Albany before the changeover....New England mostly spared due to the west track....huge snows in the AVP / Binghamton area and the high spots in N. Jersey.

[uncle W]

my old farmers almanac from 1966 predicted an old fashion winter for the 1966-67 winter...December had a snowstorm Christmas Eve...The best timing for any snowfall 4" or more in my lifetime...1959, 1961 and 1963 were close also...The winter of 1963-64 remains one of my favorites...6.6" of snow on the 23rd into the 24th...A 13" blizzard in January...Frequent snows in February...A 5" wet snowfall on the first day of Spring...

[Isotherm]

Yeah, that airmass was unbelievable. March 19, 1967 is the latest below 0F reading here as well. For snowfall, it wasn't quite as prolific as March 2001, 1993, 1958, or 1956 here, but it probably had the most impressive combo of multiple large storms and cold airmasses of any of the Marches in the past 60+ years.

It seems in the past 25 years or so, December and January have taken the lion's share of the impressive winter months....as opposed to all those great February and Marches of the late 50s through late 70s. We've only had one February over 30" since 1983...that was 2003. From 1962-1983, there was 5 of them. From 1956-1984 (28 years), there were 6 Marches over 25"....the 28 years since then, only 2...those being 1993 and 2001. (though there's been many between 20-25")

It will be interesting to see if that starts to swing back the other way.

It's interesting that our best Feb/Mar late winter combos occurred about 10 years into the -PDO phase, and the cooling Atlantic after 1960 seemed to help quite a bit. It may be a case of correlation without causation, but the height of the -PDO and -AMO was in the 1960s and 1970s (when the cold phases of both oceans overlapped). Of course the PDO turned warm after 1978-79, which is when the snowy late winters also began fading. If history repeats, or at least comes close to repeating, we should see an increase in snowy feb/march within the next 5-10 years. The PDO didn't really start turning cold until the mid/late 2000s, so we probably have another 3-5 years before we're a decade into the cold phase.

[ORH_wxman]

It's interesting that our best Feb/Mar late winter combos occurred about 10 years into the -PDO phase, and the cooling Atlantic after 1960 seemed to help quite a bit. It may be a case of correlation without causation, but the height of the -PDO and -AMO was in the 1960s and 1970s (when the cold phases of both oceans overlapped). Of course the PDO turned warm after 1978-79, which is when the snowy late winters also began fading. If history repeats, or at least comes close to repeating, we should see an increase in snowy feb/march within the next 5-10 years. The PDO didn't really start turning cold until the mid/late 2000s, so we probably have another 3-5 years before we're a decade into the cold phase.

Yeah I'm not sure if there is really a causation there. But its interesting to think about. The sample isn't enormous.

But it would certainly make for convenient timing if all of the sudden we start getting big Feb/Mar combos over the next decade or two.

[Isotherm]

It's interesting that our best Feb/Mar late winter combos occurred about 10 years into the -PDO phase, and the cooling Atlantic after 1960 seemed to help quite a bit. It may be a case of correlation without causation, but the height of the -PDO and -AMO was in the 1960s and 1970s (when the cold phases of both oceans overlapped). Of course the PDO turned warm after 1978-79, which is when the snowy late winters also began fading. If history repeats, or at least comes close to repeating, we should see an increase in snowy feb/march within the next 5-10 years. The PDO didn't really start turning cold until the mid/late 2000s, so we probably have another 3-5 years before we're a decade into the cold phase.

Then again, looking back at the records, December/January was fairly snowy as well from the late 50s through the late 70s. I think it's mostly b/c the atmosphere was favorable for the maintenance of long duration -NAOs, which permitted the stormy/cold pattern from Dec right through Mar. Since 2000, we've seen the frequency of blocking regimes increase, but only in recent years have we experienced a taste of the late 50s-60s -NAO. 2009-2011 featured a very impressive -NAO, which will likely be repeated in future winters (soon).

[Isotherm]

Yeah I'm not sure if there is really a causation there. But its interesting to think about. The sample isn't enormous.

But it would certainly make for convenient timing if all of the sudden we start getting big Feb/Mar combos over the next decade or two.

My ideal winter is snowy Dec-Mar but to be honest I don't really mind the lack of big March snows; I prefer Dec/Jan when the sun angle is lower. 2010-11 was excellent but spread out w/ a start date earlier in December and last snow a couple weeks later in Feb would have been nice.

[Isotherm]

On the two days preceding the 3/21/67 storm, Upton recorded their latest (in the season) below zero readings... -7.5 F on the 19th and -2 F on the 20th.

http://www.bnl.gov/w...03-martemp.html

Incredible temperatures given 12 hour daylight by that point in time. Hopefully we see some REAL cold this upcoming winter - and by real I talking minimum temperatures below zero at least one night. 2008-09 was the last winter to do it for me. 09-10 and 10-11 I made it into the single digits, which isn't impressive. Even the warmest winters feature at least a couple nights below 10 in the burbs of NYC.

New Brunswick recorded 57.5" in 66-67 with 27.5" in Feb. Awesome late winter that year.

[Isotherm]

my old farmers almanac from 1966 predicted an old fashion winter for the 1966-67 winter...December had a snowstorm Christmas Eve...The best timing for any snowfall 4" or more in my lifetime...1959, 1961 and 1963 were close also...The winter of 1963-64 remains one of my favorites...6.6" of snow on the 23rd into the 24th...A 13" blizzard in January...Frequent snows in February...A 5" wet snowfall on the first day of Spring...

You're lucky to have lived through the 60s; it was a great decade snow wise. 2010-11 came close to pulling the best white Christmas ever, but was a day late. Dec 25th 2009 had 7" on the ground Christmas morning here but was washed away by the night with 1" of rain. At least since 1990 it's been very difficult to get a white Christmas around these parts. It probably occurred w/ about 10% frequency in the 1990-2010 period but 40% in the 1955-1970 period which averages out to our historical 25% or so...

[Guest Pamela]

Even the warmest winters feature at least a couple nights below 10 in the burbs of NYC.

Through about 1975, the coldest low of the year in Central Park averaged around 0 F.

[ORH_wxman]

Incredible temperatures given 12 hour daylight by that point in time. Hopefully we see some REAL cold this upcoming winter - and by real I talking minimum temperatures below zero at least one night. 2008-09 was the last winter to do it for me. 09-10 and 10-11 I made it into the single digits, which isn't impressive. Even the warmest winters feature at least a couple nights below 10 in the burbs of NYC.

New Brunswick recorded 57.5" in 66-67 with 27.5" in Feb. Awesome late winter that year.

2010-2011 had a very nice cold shot on Jan 24th, but I think it was New England-centric...Boston recorded their first sub-0F reading since January 2005.

[ORH_wxman]

You're lucky to have lived through the 60s; it was a great decade snow wise. 2010-11 came close to pulling the best white Christmas ever, but was a day late. Dec 25th 2009 had 7" on the ground Christmas morning here but was washed away by the night with 1" of rain. At least since 1990 it's been very difficult to get a white Christmas around these parts. It probably occurred w/ about 10% frequency in the 1990-2010 period but 40% in the 1955-1970 period which averages out to our historical 25% or so...

1955-1970 was a great period for the decadal oscillations all lining up (esp after 1960 when the AMO went negative)...hard to to do that since they are offset.

But we were also lucky too. We probably didn't deserve the number of good winters we got in that period. I know it didn't quite happen down there...but from 1955-1956 through 1971-1972 here, we didn't record a winter worse than 62.8" which is remarkable for averaging 69" per year. But it was close there too, probably only a few duds.

[Isotherm]

1955-1970 was a great period for the decadal oscillations all lining up (esp after 1960 when the AMO went negative)...hard to to do that since they are offset.

But we were also lucky too. We probably didn't deserve the number of good winters we got in that period. I know it didn't quite happen down there...but from 1955-1956 through 1971-1972 here, we didn't record a winter worse than 62.8" which is remarkable for averaging 69" per year. But it was close there too, probably only a few duds.

Yeah and even in the dud winters, like 61-62, 62-63, it was very cold. I'm not sure the exact percentage but I'd guess > 80% of the winters were colder than normal from 1955 through 1970. Definitely the combo of -NAO, -PDO, -AMO helped big time.

Given the PDO flipped in 2007-08, we should expect a -PDO through about 2037. If the AMO also follows the 30-year cycle (-AMO 1965 to 1995), we should turn negative by 2025. The NAO is already beginning to return to its negative decadal cycle which mirrors the PDO more closes than the AMO. So the potential time frame when we line all 3 teleconections up negative would be 2025-2037, still at least a decade down the road. Which makes sense considering we're in the mid 1950s wrt decadal cycles right now. Who knows though, no time period is exactly alike and we may or may not have the same luck we did back then...although the solar card definitely interests me more this go around.

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah and even in the dud winters, like 61-62, 62-63, it was very cold. I'm not sure the exact percentage but I'd guess > 80% of the winters were colder than normal from 1955 through 1970. Definitely the combo of -NAO, -PDO, -AMO helped big time.

Given the PDO flipped in 2007-08, we should expect a -PDO through about 2037. If the AMO also follows the 30-year cycle (-AMO 1965 to 1995), we should turn negative by 2025. The NAO is already beginning to return to its negative decadal cycle which mirrors the PDO more closes than the AMO. So the potential time frame when we line all 3 teleconections up negative would be 2025-2037, still at least a decade down the road. Which makes sense considering we're in the mid 1950s wrt decadal cycles right now. Who knows though, no time period is exactly alike and we may or may not have the same luck we did back then...although the solar card definitely interests me more this go around.

The AMO is actually quite a bit more unpredictable than the PDO....according to a couple recent papers. It can be anywhere from 15-35 years on the cycle. PDO is pretty consistent around 30, but may go a few years each way and the strengths vary.

But the AMO could switch in 5 years or it could wait until 2035-2040.

[Diego]

You're lucky to have lived through the 60s; it was a great decade snow wise. 2010-11 came close to pulling the best white Christmas ever, but was a day late. Dec 25th 2009 had 7" on the ground Christmas morning here but was washed away by the night with 1" of rain. At least since 1990 it's been very difficult to get a white Christmas around these parts. It probably occurred w/ about 10% frequency in the 1990-2010 period but 40% in the 1955-1970 period which averages out to our historical 25% or so...

During the period of 1955-1970, there were 4 white Christmas' in NYC:

Dec. 1961 - 6" on gd resulting from 6,2" falling on the 23rd/24th;

Dec. 1963 - 6" on gd resulting from 6.6 falling on the 23rd/24th;

Dec. 1966 - 7" on gd resulting from 7.1 falling on the 23rd/24; and

Dec. 1969 - 2" on gd during day pending snowfall of 2.1" on the 25th (a total of 6.8" fell from the 25th to 27th).

Note, traces were omitted.There was a trace on the gd on the 25th in 1959, 1962 and 1967.

Also noteworthy, during the 4-day storm from Dec. 25th to 28th in 1969, Albany was buried under a total of 26.4," after a morning low of -22F at the Albany County Airport on the 25th, and Burlington rec'd a total of 32.8." Boston rec'd 4.2" on the 24th/25th, but the precip. changed to rain with temps, reaching 49F on the 27th, as it got into the eastern sector of that storm).

[ORH_wxman]

During the period of 1955-1970, there were 4 white Christmas' in NYC:

Dec. 1961 - 6" on gd resulting from 6,2" falling on the 23rd/24th;

Dec. 1963 - 6" on gd resulting from 6.6 falling on the 23rd/24th;

Dec. 1966 - 7" on gd resulting from 7.1 falling on the 23rd/24; and

Dec. 1969 - 2" on gd during day pending snowfall of 2.1" on the 25th (a total of 6.8" fell from the 25th to 27th).

Note, traces were omitted.There was a trace on the gd on the 25th in 1959, 1962 and 1967.

Also noteworthy, during the 4-day storm from Dec. 25th to 28th in 1969, Albany was buried under a total of 26.4," after a morning low of -22F at the Albany County Airport on the 25th, and Burlington rec'd a total of 32.8." Boston rec'd 4.2" on the 24th/25th, but the precip. changed to rain with temps, reaching 49F on the 27th, as it got into the eastern sector of that storm).

Dec 1969 was a monster for that time of the year (well really any, but esp for Dec)....very rare to get a storm that deep that early and that "tucked"....we (ORH) had a terrible ice storm after 13" of snow in that storm before going slightly above freezing at the peak and then back below to refreeze the pack.

[KEITH L.I]

During the period of 1955-1970, there were 4 white Christmas' in NYC:

Dec. 1961 - 6" on gd resulting from 6,2" falling on the 23rd/24th;

Dec. 1963 - 6" on gd resulting from 6.6 falling on the 23rd/24th;

Dec. 1966 - 7" on gd resulting from 7.1 falling on the 23rd/24; and

Dec. 1969 - 2" on gd during day pending snowfall of 2.1" on the 25th (a total of 6.8" fell from the 25th to 27th).

Note, traces were omitted.There was a trace on the gd on the 25th in 1959, 1962 and 1967.

Also noteworthy, during the 4-day storm from Dec. 25th to 28th in 1969, Albany was buried under a total of 26.4," after a morning low of -22F at the Albany County Airport on the 25th, and Burlington rec'd a total of 32.8." Boston rec'd 4.2" on the 24th/25th, but the precip. changed to rain with temps, reaching 49F on the 27th, as it got into the eastern sector of that storm).

Another strange stat..talk about rare..there is never accumulating snow on Dec 24th during the day or night.in the last 45 years.last time there was over an inch in NYC was 1966 there have been traces though..69,80,83,93, and 2002..but even for traces, that's low..it just never snows on that date

[Isotherm]

Another strange stat..talk about rare..there is never accumulating snow on Dec 24th during the day or night.in the last 45 years.last time there was over an inch in NYC was 1966 there have been traces though..69,80,83,93, and 2002..but even for traces, that's low..it just never snows on that date

That's because mother nature never does what people want. Pretty much everyone wants it to snow on Christmas Eve, but most people don't want it the rest of the winter. Mother nature does the opposite.

[Stormlover74]

But there are alot of dates like that. For example despite all the big storms around President's day the record for February 18th is just 3.5" from 1928 meanwhile all the dates around it have significantly higher record totals. Groundhog day is just 5" and that record has stood for 138 years!

Another strange stat..talk about rare..there is never accumulating snow on Dec 24th during the day or night.in the last 45 years.last time there was over an inch in NYC was 1966 there have been traces though..69,80,83,93, and 2002..but even for traces, that's low..it just never snows on that date

[Analog96]

But there are alot of dates like that. For example despite all the big storms around President's day the record for February 18th is just 3.5" from 1928 meanwhile all the dates around it have significantly higher record totals. Groundhog day is just 5" and that record has stood for 138 years!

It's funny, because there are some dates where it really likes to snow, like Feb.11, Dec.5, Dec.19, Mar 13, and others, and then there are days where it just doesn't like to snow for some reason.

[uncle W]

white Christmas's and New Years...

season...Christmas New Years morning snow cover...

1947-48........1".......15" 2.5" 12/23... 26.4" 12/26-27 rain and snow New Years day...

1948-49........5"........5" 16.0" 12/20 ... 5" snowfall New Years Day...

1960-61........1"........T

1961-62........6"........1" 6" 12/23-24...Snow cover lasts past New years...

1963-64........5"........2" 6" 12/23-24...Snow cover lasts past New Years...Snow/sleet/rain New Years day...

1966-67........7"........T 7" 12/24-25...Snow cover wiped out by heavy rain 12/28...

1967-68........T.........3" 3" New Years morning...

1970-71........T.........6" 6" New Years Day...

1975-76........1"........1" 0.5" Christmas Day turns to rain...rain to snow early New Years morning before ending...

1980-81........1"........T

1993-94........T.........3"

2009-10........2"........T

1947-48, 1948-49, 1961-62, 1963-64, 1975-76 had 1" or more on the ground both mornings...