nzucker Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 This is my thinking as well. I wonder how active the sun was in 51-52, 69-70 and 76-77. I am thinking that even though the sun has become more active recently that the Sun is still very inactive when compared to those particular analogs that match the ENSO state we are entering. 51-52 and 76-77 were both near solar minimum. 69-70 was near the peak of Cycle 20, but it was a lot peak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 51-52 and 76-77 were both near solar minimum. 69-70 was near the peak of Cycle 20, but it was a lot peak. Great information, thanks! After last year's debacle, I'd be overjoyed with 51-52 or 76-77 type winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 KHPN? How about Morristown too? KMMU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 Tracking our lame severe weather events and even the more lamer tropical season is just lame. Tracking a fantasy storm in the winter is where the true fun is at for me. Bring it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 Tracking our lame severe weather events and even the more lamer tropical season is just lame. Tracking a fantasy storm in the winter is where the true fun is at for me. Bring it Totally agree...or a massive noreaster. Those will do it for me too. Can't believe how quiet the tropics have been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 Totally agree...or a massive noreaster. Those will do it for me too. Can't believe how quiet the tropics have been. I love tracking winter storms. I'm usually on the computer all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 Tracking our lame severe weather events and even the more lamer tropical season is just lame. Tracking a fantasy storm in the winter is where the true fun is at for me. Bring it Couldnt agree more i get much more satisfaction out of tracking a snowstorm from 144 hours out to when it hits us than tracking a severe weather event/tropical event seeing how we rarely capitalize on them over a snowfall during winter months Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/2012/0815/Snow-in-August-It-s-steamy-now-but-forecasters-see-a-big-winter-coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 Its likely that we're going to see some sort of carryover effect for sure, the 02-03 analogs are simply not going to work because we were coming off a weak Nina/neutral setup, this time we're coming off a very strong La Nina...without going into depth and just looking at the past 30-40 years purely at the ENSO setup where we saw a weak Nino following a relatively long La Nina period that was at times moderate to strong we have 76-77 as you mention above and thats about all....86-87 could sort of qualify but 85-86 saw a somewhat weak or near neutral stretch so you could argue the southern branch was probably more active in 86-87 than it may be this winter. If I had to forecast snow relative to normal this winter just using the ENSO state I'd say that the Northeast is going to see the highest departures relative to normal, I think the pattern may favor too much ridging over the Rockies for the Midwest/Plains and the southern branch may not be active enough for the MA, Srn Plains, or TN Valley. Unfortunately I think you're right. Other examples are 2001-2, which came off a strong Niña (1998-2000) and a weak Niña/La Nada in 2000-1. 2002-3 was effectively the second year Niño. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 Unfortunately I think you're right. Other examples are 2001-2, which came off a strong Niña (1998-2000) and a weak Niña/La Nada in 2000-1. 2002-3 was effectively the second year Niño. 2001-2002 was not a Nino at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 '01-'02 was actually a negative-neutral. This past winter was a weak La Nina but coming off a potent one and the PDO has been deeply negative for a while now...we haven't had a positive reading since spring of 2010 at the end of that Nino. We may struggle to get it to positive despite a forming El Nino...especially if it stays weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 Way to early to be prediciting snowfall totals - impossible - think they would have learned their lesson from last years fiasco - but accuweather is in the business of hyping everything to try and make a $.Still an even chance of a "NINA Hangover" while on paper a weak NINO favors above normal snowfall the winter of 1976 is an example of NiNO following NINA and not delivering - cold fall and winter but not above avg snowfall Its likely that we're going to see some sort of carryover effect for sure, the 02-03 analogs are simply not going to work because we were coming off a weak Nina/neutral setup, this time we're coming off a very strong La Nina...without going into depth and just looking at the past 30-40 years purely at the ENSO setup where we saw a weak Nino following a relatively long La Nina period that was at times moderate to strong we have 76-77 as you mention above and thats about all....86-87 could sort of qualify but 85-86 saw a somewhat weak or near neutral stretch so you could argue the southern branch was probably more active in 86-87 than it may be this winter. If I had to forecast snow relative to normal this winter just using the ENSO state I'd say that the Northeast is going to see the highest departures relative to normal, I think the pattern may favor too much ridging over the Rockies for the Midwest/Plains and the southern branch may not be active enough for the MA, Srn Plains, or TN Valley. '76-'77 delivered greatly in this area.....it was one of ne MA's coldest, and snowiest winters.....a lot of late-blooming Miller Bs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 Couldnt agree more i get much more satisfaction out of tracking a snowstorm from 144 hours out to when it hits us than tracking a severe weather event/tropical event seeing how we rarely capitalize on them over a snowfall during winter months I agree. Except as a participant. My then 14 year old son flew from KJFK to KSTL on December 25, 2010, on the way to San Diego. The day he landed in STL they received 5", which was from the storm that became later known as the "Boxing Day Blizzard".. Everyone was OK but that was too close a call for being stranded for comfort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 last year the Arctic osscilation was mostly positive...When it did go negative in late January NYC saw it's largest snowfall a week before...The October snowstorm was just after a minus AO...Usually when the AO is at its lowest we see a cold wave or snowstorm or both just before or after the AO's lowest point... lowest daily winter ao value since 1950...I hope I didn't miss a date...Weather at the time for NYC... season.......value.....date..... 1949-50......-2.854.....3/15/50......1.4" 3/14...record cold the beginning of the month... 1950-51......-4.353.....12/27/50....3" snow 12/27 and 9 degrees...the biggest snow and coldest temperature of the winter... 1951-52......-3.805.....3/4/1952....4" snow 3/2... 1952-53......-3.766.....12/27/52....12 degrees is the coldest temp. of the season...4" snow 12/31... 1953-54......-3.495.....1/30/54......cold continues...Cold snowy January... 1954-55......-3.064.....1/4/55........cold continues... 1955-56......-4.564.....2/15/56......1.4" 2/17 and 2/22...Big March snows...KU... 1956-57......-4.473.....2/21/57......2.6" snow 3/1... 1957-58......-4.030.....3/11/58......snow storms 3/14 and 3/21...KU event... 1958-59......-4.026.....1/7/59........cold continues... 1959-60......-4.108.....1/28/60......18 degrees 2/3 is the coldest temp for Feb...Big March cold and snow...KU... 1960-61......-2.719.....1/10/61......greatest snowy and cold period followed 1/15-2/12...three KU's... 1961-62......-4.417.....3/4/62........record cold 3/2 and the Ash Wednesday storm 3/6... 1962-63......-5.010.....1/21/63......Near record cold 1/23 and 4" snow 1/26...Biggest snow of the season... 1963-64......-4.470.....12/20/63....1.4" 12/18...6.6" 12/23-24...11 degrees 12/20 coldest for that month...January Blizzard...KU... 1964-65......-3.973.....1/26/65......ice storm 1/24 and continued cold... 1965-66......-5.130.....1/28/66......8 degrees is the coldest temp. of the season 1/28...Ku storm 7" on 1/30... 1966-67......-4.147.....12/13/66....wet snow and rain 12/13-14 is the start of two weeks of snow and cold...7" snow 12/24-25... 1967-68......-3.490.....2/7/68........8 degrees 2/11...Cold and dry continues... 1968-69......-5.282.....2/13/69......17 degrees 2/17 is the coldest temp for the month...15" of snow 2/9-10...KU... 1969-70......-6.365.....3/5/70........20 degrees 3/10 coldest temp for the month...4" of snow 3/29... 1970-71......-2.821.....2/6/71........12 degrees max 2/2... 1971-72......-1.490.....1/1/72........14 degrees 1/6...1" snow 1/5... 1972-73......-2.044.....12/17/72...24 degrees max 12/17... 1973-74......-2.792.....12/19/73...big ice storm 12/16-17...17 degrees 12/19 is the coldest temp of the month... 1974-75......-1.695.....12/18/74...some minor cold in a mild month...one of the few times the weather was benign at the ao minimum... 1975-76......-3.262.....1/24/76......-1 degrees 1/23 is the coldest temp of the winter...1" of snow 1/23... 1976-77......-7.433.....1/15/77......-2 degrees on the 17th is the coldest temp of the winter...5" snow 1/14-15... 1977-78......-5.291.....2/5/78........10 degrees 2/5 is the coldest temperature of the season...18" snow 2/6-7...KU... 1978-79......-4.387.....1/25/79......Very cold and snowy February...KU... 1979-80......-3.705.....1/24/80......continued cold and dry...longest stretch of cold that winter... 1980-81......-4.318.....3/4/81........largest snowfall for the winter...8.6" 3/5... 1981-82......-3.804.....12/30/81...January 1982 was very cold and snowy... 1982-83......-3.410.....2/6/83........4" of snow 2/6 and 18" 2/11-12...KU... 1983-84......-3.706.....3/13/84......record cold 3/10...7" snow 3/8-9... 1984-85......-6.226.....1/19/85.....-2 degrees 1/21 is the coldest temperature that winter... 1985-86......-3.894......2/6/86.......4.5" of snow 2/7 and 2/11...Snowiest period of the winter... 1986-87......-3.507.....3/9/87........2" snow 3/12...Near record cold 3/10... 1987-88......-2.314.....2/28/88......0.6" 2/27 is the last measurable snow...Thawing after... 1988-89......-0.318.....3/4/89........2.5" 3/6 and near record cold 3/7... 1989-90......-3.482.....12/10/89...One of the coldest Decembers on record... 1990-91......-3.381.....3/9/91.......24 degrees 3/12...benign after that... 1991-92......-2.597.....12/4/91.....0.7" 12/5...benign after that... 1992-93......-2.228.....3/2/93.......Super storm 3/13...Near record cold followed...KU... 1993-94......-3.503.....2/24/94.....2.6" 2/23...12 degrees 2/27...Feb KU... 1994-95......-3.116.....3/9/95.......20 degrees 3/10 is the coldest temp for the month...KU in Feb... 1995-96......-4.353.....12/19/95...8" of snow during a very cold period...January blizzard..KU... 1996-97......-3.377.....12/30/96...11 degrees New Years Day.... 1997-98......-4.269.....1/10/98.....14 degrees New Years day...Coldest of the winter... 1998-99......-3.856.....3/10/99......5" snow 3/14-15...17 degrees 3/8 is the coldest temp for the month... 1999-00......-2.118.....2/18/00......3" snow and ice 2/22...KU in January... 2000-01......-4.854.....2/25/01......6" snow 2/22 and 17 degrees...coldest for the month... 2001-02......-3.293.....12/28/01...Coldest period of the winter followed but benign... 2002-03......-3.575.....1/22/03......7 degrees 1/24 is the coldest for the winter...KU in February... 2003-04......-4.387.....1/17/04......1 degree 1/16 is the coldest temp of the season...6" of snow 1/15...Dec. KU... 2004-05......-4.337.....2/26/05......6" of snow 2/25 and 8" 2/29...KU in January... 2005-06......-3.569.....12/5/05......2" snow 12/4...1" 2/6 and 6" 12/9...14 degrees 12/14 is the coldest temp of the season...KU in Feb... 2006-07......-2.184.....2/4/07........8 degrees 2/5 is the coldest for the winter... 2007-08......-2.468.....1/2/08........12 degrees 1/3 second coldest of the winter... 2008-09......-3.178.....2/3/09........4.3" 2/5 12 degrees... 2009-10......-5.821.....12/21/09...11" snow 12/19-20...KU...16 degrees 12/18 is the coldest for the month... 2010-11......-5.172.....12/18/10...20" of snow 12/26-27...23 max on 12/14... 2011-12......-3.451.....01/28/12.....4.3" of snow 1/21...largest snowfall of the winter... I'm hoping the AO will get below -5.000 this winter...if it does we will see some very cold temperatures or a blizzard...If not we could still see a good winter with a persistent -ao... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 last year the Arctic osscilation was mostly positive...When it did go negative in late January NYC saw it's largest snowfall a week before...The October snowstorm was just after a minus AO...Usually when the AO is at its lowest we see a cold wave or snowstorm or both just before or after the AO's lowest point... lowest daily winter ao value since 1950...I hope I didn't miss a date...Weather at the time for NYC... season.......value.....date..... 1949-50......-2.854.....3/15/50......1.4" 3/14...record cold the beginning of the month... 1950-51......-4.353.....12/27/50....3" snow 12/27 and 9 degrees...the biggest snow and coldest temperature of the winter... 1951-52......-3.805.....3/4/1952....4" snow 3/2... 1952-53......-3.766.....12/27/52....12 degrees is the coldest temp. of the season...4" snow 12/31... 1953-54......-3.495.....1/30/54......cold continues...Cold snowy January... 1954-55......-3.064.....1/4/55........cold continues... 1955-56......-4.564.....2/15/56......1.4" 2/17 and 2/22...Big March snows...KU... 1956-57......-4.473.....2/21/57......2.6" snow 3/1... 1957-58......-4.030.....3/11/58......snow storms 3/14 and 3/21...KU event... 1958-59......-4.026.....1/7/59........cold continues... 1959-60......-4.108.....1/28/60......18 degrees 2/3 is the coldest temp for Feb...Big March cold and snow...KU... 1960-61......-2.719.....1/10/61......greatest snowy and cold period followed 1/15-2/12...three KU's... 1961-62......-4.417.....3/4/62........record cold 3/2 and the Ash Wednesday storm 3/6... 1962-63......-5.010.....1/21/63......Near record cold 1/23 and 4" snow 1/26...Biggest snow of the season... 1963-64......-4.470.....12/20/63....1.4" 12/18...6.6" 12/23-24...11 degrees 12/20 coldest for that month...January Blizzard...KU... 1964-65......-3.973.....1/26/65......ice storm 1/24 and continued cold... 1965-66......-5.130.....1/28/66......8 degrees is the coldest temp. of the season 1/28...Ku storm 7" on 1/30... 1966-67......-4.147.....12/13/66....wet snow and rain 12/13-14 is the start of two weeks of snow and cold...7" snow 12/24-25... 1967-68......-3.490.....2/7/68........8 degrees 2/11...Cold and dry continues... 1968-69......-5.282.....2/13/69......17 degrees 2/17 is the coldest temp for the month...15" of snow 2/9-10...KU... 1969-70......-6.365.....3/5/70........20 degrees 3/10 coldest temp for the month...4" of snow 3/29... 1970-71......-2.821.....2/6/71........12 degrees max 2/2... 1971-72......-1.490.....1/1/72........14 degrees 1/6...1" snow 1/5... 1972-73......-2.044.....12/17/72...24 degrees max 12/17... 1973-74......-2.792.....12/19/73...big ice storm 12/16-17...17 degrees 12/19 is the coldest temp of the month... 1974-75......-1.695.....12/18/74...some minor cold in a mild month...one of the few times the weather was benign at the ao minimum... 1975-76......-3.262.....1/24/76......-1 degrees 1/23 is the coldest temp of the winter...1" of snow 1/23... 1976-77......-7.433.....1/15/77......-2 degrees on the 17th is the coldest temp of the winter...5" snow 1/14-15... 1977-78......-5.291.....2/5/78........10 degrees 2/5 is the coldest temperature of the season...18" snow 2/6-7...KU... 1978-79......-4.387.....1/25/79......Very cold and snowy February...KU... 1979-80......-3.705.....1/24/80......continued cold and dry...longest stretch of cold that winter... 1980-81......-4.318.....3/4/81........largest snowfall for the winter...8.6" 3/5... 1981-82......-3.804.....12/30/81...January 1982 was very cold and snowy... 1982-83......-3.410.....2/6/83........4" of snow 2/6 and 18" 2/11-12...KU... 1983-84......-3.706.....3/13/84......record cold 3/10...7" snow 3/8-9... 1984-85......-6.226.....1/19/85.....-2 degrees 1/21 is the coldest temperature that winter... 1985-86......-3.894......2/6/86.......4.5" of snow 2/7 and 2/11...Snowiest period of the winter... 1986-87......-3.507.....3/9/87........2" snow 3/12...Near record cold 3/10... 1987-88......-2.314.....2/28/88......0.6" 2/27 is the last measurable snow...Thawing after... 1988-89......-0.318.....3/4/89........2.5" 3/6 and near record cold 3/7... 1989-90......-3.482.....12/10/89...One of the coldest Decembers on record... 1990-91......-3.381.....3/9/91.......24 degrees 3/12...benign after that... 1991-92......-2.597.....12/4/91.....0.7" 12/5...benign after that... 1992-93......-2.228.....3/2/93.......Super storm 3/13...Near record cold followed...KU... 1993-94......-3.503.....2/24/94.....2.6" 2/23...12 degrees 2/27...Feb KU... 1994-95......-3.116.....3/9/95.......20 degrees 3/10 is the coldest temp for the month...KU in Feb... 1995-96......-4.353.....12/19/95...8" of snow during a very cold period...January blizzard..KU... 1996-97......-3.377.....12/30/96...11 degrees New Years Day.... 1997-98......-4.269.....1/10/98.....14 degrees New Years day...Coldest of the winter... 1998-99......-3.856.....3/10/99......5" snow 3/14-15...17 degrees 3/8 is the coldest temp for the month... 1999-00......-2.118.....2/18/00......3" snow and ice 2/22...KU in January... 2000-01......-4.854.....2/25/01......6" snow 2/22 and 17 degrees...coldest for the month... 2001-02......-3.293.....12/28/01...Coldest period of the winter followed but benign... 2002-03......-3.575.....1/22/03......7 degrees 1/24 is the coldest for the winter...KU in February... 2003-04......-4.387.....1/17/04......1 degree 1/16 is the coldest temp of the season...6" of snow 1/15...Dec. KU... 2004-05......-4.337.....2/26/05......6" of snow 2/25 and 8" 2/29...KU in January... 2005-06......-3.569.....12/5/05......2" snow 12/4...1" 2/6 and 6" 12/9...14 degrees 12/14 is the coldest temp of the season...KU in Feb... 2006-07......-2.184.....2/4/07........8 degrees 2/5 is the coldest for the winter... 2007-08......-2.468.....1/2/08........12 degrees 1/3 second coldest of the winter... 2008-09......-3.178.....2/3/09........4.3" 2/5 12 degrees... 2009-10......-5.821.....12/21/09...11" snow 12/19-20...KU...16 degrees 12/18 is the coldest for the month... 2010-11......-5.172.....12/18/10...20" of snow 12/26-27...23 max on 12/14... 2011-12......-3.451.....01/28/12.....4.3" of snow 1/21...largest snowfall of the winter... I'm hoping the AO will get below -5.000 this winter...if it does we will see some very cold temperatures or a blizzard...If not we could still see a good winter with a persistent -ao... Love your historical posts Unc, great info. No doubt the NAO and AO are very important factors for NE cold/snow, more crucial than ENSO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 Love your historical posts Unc, great info. No doubt the NAO and AO are very important factors for NE cold/snow, more crucial than ENSO. 04-05 was one of my favorite winters...slow start, but strong finish.....The febuary snows are beautiful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diego Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 Love your historical posts Unc, great info. No doubt the NAO and AO are very important factors for NE cold/snow, more crucial than ENSO. Ditto, I will be more closely following the AO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 04-05 was one of my favorite winters...slow start, but strong finish.....The febuary snows are beautiful it was a great winter...we did get some snow just after Christmas and a blizzard in late January...But it also had two warm periods...The first half of January and the first half of February...1957-58 and 1995-96 had two thaws also but they came the second half of January and February... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 So was 03-04, really had 3 good winters in a row. You had the early December event which for those of us that got the Friday afternoon snow ended up with well over a foot all said and done. Pretty impressive for December 6th. Then there was another small event mid month. The clipper in January and a 2nd storm late month, plus the impressive cold with temps dropping to 0. The only issue with 03-04 was February totally blew. Then we got one last decent event in early March. it was a great winter...we did get some snow just after Christmas and a blizzard in late January...But it also had two warm periods...The first half of January and the first half of February...1957-58 and 1995-96 had two thaws also but they came the second half of January and February... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 it was a great winter...we did get some snow just after Christmas and a blizzard in late January...But it also had two warm periods...The first half of January and the first half of February...1957-58 and 1995-96 had two thaws also but they came the second half of January and February... Yes i believe it was in the 50's new years eve...then it turn cold right before blizzard...which is very underated...as i got crushed in Monmouth county... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 Yes i believe it was in the 50's new years eve...then it turn cold right before blizzard...which is very underated...as i got crushed in Monmouth county... the January blizzard was one of a few storms that started after single digit temperatures and ended with them...temperatures made it up to freezing before the storm ended... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 No it was a great storm for us. Totally got shafted in PA and down into Balt/DC though and we didn't do nearly as well as Boston/Cape Cod but I was driving back from Philly during the heart of it and it was just incredible. Something about being on the turnpike with no other cars and driving 30mph. It also snowed on and off all night and even got some blizzard conditions the following morning as the storm bombed out. And then of course we had 3 good storms in 10 days to end February followed by the flash freeze event in March where we went from rain to temps in the teens in just a few hours. Yes i believe it was in the 50's new years eve...then it turn cold right before blizzard...which is very underated...as i got crushed in Monmouth county... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 the January blizzard was one of a few storms that started after single digit temperatures and ended with them...temperatures made it up to freezing before the storm ended... No it was a great storm for us. Totally got shafted in PA and down into Balt/DC though and we didn't do nearly as well as Boston/Cape Cod but I was driving back from Philly during the heart of it and it was just incredible. Something about being on the turnpike with no other cars and driving 30mph. It also snowed on and off all night and even got some blizzard conditions the following morning as the storm bombed out. And then of course we had 3 good storms in 10 days to end February followed by the flash freeze event in March where we went from rain to temps in the teens in just a few hours. Yeah the next morning was unbelivable....big fat flakes and you could just watch accumlate on the already fallen snow.....That period in history always had a great ending to storms...or ull.....seems like every good storm in that period ended with those big powdery flakes.....man i cant wait for winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 Yeah it was a crazy month. Running about 10 degrees above normal the first half of the month and then about 12 below the second half. Many days in the teens and lows in the single digits. It was our 2nd January in a row with impressive cold and snow (and our last until 2011) Looking at rays site it was in the single digits that morning, many places stayed in the teens/low 20s during the heart of the storm and the day after. EWRs high stayed below 25 both days. Its funny how we had really warm periods that winter but nobody remembers them because the cold and snowy periods were more impressive. I'd prefer that than cold the whole winter but without alot of exciting events. Yeah the next morning was unbelivable....big fat flakes and you could just watch accumlate on the already fallen snow.....That period in history always had a great ending to storms...or ull.....seems like every good storm in that period ended with those big powdery flakes.....man i cant wait for winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 Yes i believe it was in the 50's new years eve...then it turn cold right before blizzard...which is very underated...as i got crushed in Monmouth county... It was underrated - recorded 18" IMBY. Met HECS criteria by my standards (18"+). The morning of the event it was -2F, and as the energy transfer to the coastal low occurred, my temp rose all the way to the freezing mark before falling off again in the afternoon. Points just SE of me actually switched to rain for a time in Eastern Monmouth, But as they say you've got to smell the rain to get the big snows, and Monmouth County (inland sections like Holmdel/Freehold/Colts Neck) hit the jackpot. Early December 03 was also a big gradient storm - recorded 18" in Colts Neck while the shore had about 5-6". 2002-2006 was quite the memorable stretch. And yes, I'd definitely define 05-06 as a very good winter esp compared to 2011-12. Nice stretch for December 1st-10th with a few moderate snowfalls. Then we took a break and came roaring back with a 19" blizzard in Feb 2006. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 It was underrated - recorded 18" IMBY. Met HECS criteria by my standards (18"+). The morning of the event it was -2F, and as the energy transfer to the coastal low occurred, my temp rose all the way to the freezing mark before falling off again in the afternoon. Points just SE of me actually switched to rain for a time in Eastern Monmouth, But as they say you've got to smell the rain to get the big snows, and Monmouth County (inland sections like Holmdel/Freehold/Colts Neck) hit the jackpot. Early December 03 was also a big gradient storm - recorded 18" in Colts Neck while the shore had about 5-6". 2002-2006 was quite the memorable stretch. And yes, I'd definitely define 05-06 as a very good winter esp compared to 2011-12. Nice stretch for December 1st-10th with a few moderate snowfalls. Then we took a break and came roaring back with a 19" blizzard in Feb 2006. My totals for the 2002-2005 trio were 55", 43", and 47" respectively -- all excellent winters. 05-06 not bad either with 32". Really I've only had 4 sub par winters since 2000: 2001-02, 2006-07, 2007-08, and 2011-12. The demarcation line seemed to be b/t PHL and CNJ for majority snowy vs majority bad winters in 2000s. From PHL southwest, of the 2000s, I think only 02-03, 09-10, and 10-11 were good (cross out 10-11 for south of the M/D line). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 Accuweather's winter outlook is gathering up much more hype than I thought - even the local news already has an article called Above Normal Snow Expected This Winter... I would understand the need for such a big article on this subject if this was published in October or November, but it's not even September yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 Accuweather's winter outlook is gathering up much more hype than I thought - even the local news already has an article called Above Normal Snow Expected This Winter... I would understand the need for such a big article on this subject if this was published in October or November, but it's not even September yet. Lol, they said 10-11 was a weak El Nino when in actuality it was a moderate La Nina. They were correct about the NAO in that paragraph though. "The winter of 2010-11 was the complete opposite, as a big storm dumped 20 inches the day after Christmas and Tenafly saw nearly 65 inches of snow before spring arrived. That winter, Robinson said, there was an El Nino, but it was very weak, which allowed another phenomenon that affects Northeast weather to play a bigger role – the North Atlantic Oscillation" I actually sent the writer an email clarifying this error and gave him some layman's term details about why 10-11 worked out the way it did and gave a little analog lesson lol. Well the reporter responded to me and thanked me for pointing out the discrepancy. He is actually kicking himself because he wrote another article before the October 2011 snowstorm that specifically referenced the 2010-11 La Nina, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frank Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 I took a stab at a preliminary winter outlook... http://www.epawa.net/seasonaloutlooks.html And for the record, "precip" does not mean "snow" like some people believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 Alot of people are already giving out winter. Outlooks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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