TheTrials Posted August 10, 2012 Author Share Posted August 10, 2012 Although you are in theory correct, the Dec '92 storm was pretty far west....moved over Chesapeake Bay, IIRC...before eventually moving northeast...IIRC, even up at Greenwood Lake State Park...on the Passaic / Orange County border....though they ended up with about 14"...it kept changing back and forth from rain to snow and back again...and they have some elevation there, too. One would probably have to go as far NW as High Point State Park to have seen an all snow event out of this thing. NYC would probably have gotten something like 4 - 6 inches out of this one if it were in March...the track is what killed it more than anything else. 13 inches thursday overnight to friday morning at 32 degres, wet snow no accumulation from about 9am through 3pm that day, then then temp dropped and we accumulated another 4-5 inches through Saturday. This is at 830 feet in orange county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 It will take till at least Feb for anything to stick given how warm the ground will be from 20 above normal months. you are assuming that we get any snow at all this year...we could just torch right through March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 13 inches thursday overnight to friday morning at 32 degres, wet snow no accumulation from about 9am through 3pm that day, then then temp dropped and we accumulated another 4-5 inches through Saturday. This is at 830 feet in orange county. Yeah I think the station I cited was right on the NY / NJ border...you must have been a bit farther north...and I would have to double check the altitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted August 11, 2012 Share Posted August 11, 2012 So maybe we should do snowfall predictions at the local stations for 2012-13...that would be fun and could kill some time.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted August 12, 2012 Share Posted August 12, 2012 So maybe we should do snowfall predictions at the local stations for 2012-13...that would be fun and could kill some time.... That sounds like a good idea. I think that we should use: KISP KNYC KEWR KJFK KLGA KTEB Any other stations to add? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 That sounds like a good idea. I think that we should use: KISP KNYC KEWR KJFK KLGA KTEB Any other stations to add? KNB new brunswick and kiso for Isotherms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 CFS is now warmer for the winter =( http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/htmls/usT2me3Mon.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 CFS is now warmer for the winter =( http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/htmls/usT2me3Mon.html that's a torch. Tomorrow it will show an ice age. Grain of salt at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 14, 2012 Author Share Posted August 14, 2012 that's a torch. Tomorrow it will show an ice age. Grain of salt at this point once it goes warm, it never goes back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 once it goes warm, it never goes back. Its also never right, so usually expect the opposite of what it says. Anthony is the only person that really cares about it anyways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 14, 2012 Author Share Posted August 14, 2012 Its also never right, so usually expect the opposite of what it says. Anthony is the only person that really cares about it anyways it's been very good this summer. People were humping it june/july when it was showing an ice-age this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 it's been very good this summer. weenies were humping it june/july when it was showing an ice-age this winter. Fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 FWIW , This is NOT going to be a torch winter . Not one serious trader in charge of managing huge Ag and Energy portfolios out 6 to 9 months have any internal view of a warm winter in any way . Havent seen doomsday views , but slightly colder in the northeast and normal to above snow seems to be the opinion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/snow-for-i-95-corridor-northeast-winter/69820 just nice to see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 http://www.accuweath...st-winter/69820 just nice to see Are we sure that isn't the same map they used from last year with the dates changed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 http://www.accuweath...st-winter/69820 just nice to see Way to early to be prediciting snowfall totals - impossible - think they would have learned their lesson from last years fiasco - but accuweather is in the business of hyping everything to try and make a $.Still an even chance of a "NINA Hangover" while on paper a weak NINO favors above normal snowfall the winter of 1976 is an example of NiNO following NINA and not delivering - cold fall and winter but not above avg snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 Way to early to be prediciting snowfall totals - impossible - think they would have learned their lesson from last years fiasco - but accuweather is in the business of hyping everything to try and make a $.Still an even chance of a "NINA Hangover" while on paper a weak NINO favors above normal snowfall the winter of 1976 is an example of NiNO following NINA and not delivering - cold fall and winter but not above avg snowfall Its likely that we're going to see some sort of carryover effect for sure, the 02-03 analogs are simply not going to work because we were coming off a weak Nina/neutral setup, this time we're coming off a very strong La Nina...without going into depth and just looking at the past 30-40 years purely at the ENSO setup where we saw a weak Nino following a relatively long La Nina period that was at times moderate to strong we have 76-77 as you mention above and thats about all....86-87 could sort of qualify but 85-86 saw a somewhat weak or near neutral stretch so you could argue the southern branch was probably more active in 86-87 than it may be this winter. If I had to forecast snow relative to normal this winter just using the ENSO state I'd say that the Northeast is going to see the highest departures relative to normal, I think the pattern may favor too much ridging over the Rockies for the Midwest/Plains and the southern branch may not be active enough for the MA, Srn Plains, or TN Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 Its likely that we're going to see some sort of carryover effect for sure, the 02-03 analogs are simply not going to work because we were coming off a weak Nina/neutral setup, this time we're coming off a very strong La Nina...without going into depth and just looking at the past 30-40 years purely at the ENSO setup where we saw a weak Nino following a relatively long La Nina period that was at times moderate to strong we have 76-77 as you mention above and thats about all....86-87 could sort of qualify but 85-86 saw a somewhat weak or near neutral stretch so you could argue the southern branch was probably more active in 86-87 than it may be this winter. If I had to forecast snow relative to normal this winter just using the ENSO state I'd say that the Northeast is going to see the highest departures relative to normal, I think the pattern may favor too much ridging over the Rockies for the Midwest/Plains and the southern branch may not be active enough for the MA, Srn Plains, or TN Valley. At least 76-77 was very cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 1976-77 was a weak nino...The highest oni index was 0.8 for the ONDJ period...there are five other weak el nino's below 1.0 on the new oni index scale...assuming we will see a weak el nino 1976-77 was the only one coming off a la nina... year.....OND...NDJ...DJF...JFM... 1953-54...0.8...0.7...0.7...0.5... 1958-59...0.5...0.6...0.6...0.6... 1969-70...0.9...0.8...0.6...0.4... 1976-77...0.8...0.8...0.6...0.6... 1977-78...0.8...0.8...0.7...0.5... 2004-05...0.7...0.7...0.6...0.4... all six had a cold January... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 I think 2004-2005 is a good analog in alot of ways for this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 I think 2004-2005 is a good analog in alot of ways for this winter Perhaps in other teleconnectors besides ENSO because 02-03 and 03-04 were Nino winters so it is kind of hard from an ENSO standpoint to justify 04-05 as an analog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 Perhaps in other teleconnectors besides ENSO because 02-03 and 03-04 were Nino winters so it is kind of hard from an ENSO standpoint to justify 04-05 as an analog. Was 03-04 a nino? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 Was 03-04 a nino? Weak Nino to neutral (coming off a nino). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 Perhaps in other teleconnectors besides ENSO because 02-03 and 03-04 were Nino winters so it is kind of hard from an ENSO standpoint to justify 04-05 as an analog. 04-05 was weaker than 02-03, more like what we'll probably see this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 04-05 was weaker than 02-03, more like what we'll probably see this year. Perhaps in pure ENSO strength it could be similar. I just think prior years have some influence as well not to mention the many other key teleconnectors that are out there to compare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 Perhaps in pure ENSO strength it could be similar. I just think prior years have some influence as well not to mention the many other key teleconnectors that are out there to compare. Definitely...my top analogs are 51-52, 68-69, 69-70, 76-77, and 04-05....Niños like 02-03 and 09-10 are probably too strong and too west-based to fit into the analog package, although 09-10 did follow a double Niña which may have some forcing on global temperatures. I am looking more at the east-based events like 51-52, 69-70, 76-77 which tend to offer some cold weather but not as snowy, although it's certainly possible it shifts west as time goes on. It's also possible the Niño continues to strengthen as 09-10 was also a late bloomer in that respect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 News: NYC, Philly, DC: Winter 2012-2013 will be "Snow" Joke Wednesday, August 15, 2012 17:22 ET By Meghan Evans, meteorologist Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 Definitely...my top analogs are 51-52, 68-69, 69-70, 76-77, and 04-05....Niños like 02-03 and 09-10 are probably too strong and too west-based to fit into the analog package, although 09-10 did follow a double Niña which may have some forcing on global temperatures. I am looking more at the east-based events like 51-52, 69-70, 76-77 which tend to offer some cold weather but not as snowy, although it's certainly possible it shifts west as time goes on. It's also possible the Niño continues to strengthen as 09-10 was also a late bloomer in that respect. This is my thinking as well. I wonder how active the sun was in 51-52, 69-70 and 76-77. I am thinking that even though the sun has become more active recently that the Sun is still very inactive when compared to those particular analogs that match the ENSO state we are entering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 News: NYC, Philly, DC: Winter 2012-2013 will be "Snow" Joke Wednesday, August 15, 2012 17:22 ET By Meghan Evans, meteorologist just about to post that article lol. they really know how to throw up some hail mary fails! haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 KNB new brunswick and kiso for Isotherms KHPN? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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