IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 There is more to analogs than enso Sorry, you're right. I lost all my Climate-Related bookmarks after I wiped my Hard Drive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 25, 2012 Author Share Posted July 25, 2012 The upcoming winter will likely be better than the atrocity of last winter, it pretty much is guaranteed to be better. The ENSO state will be better for us but the state of blocking will absolutely determine how much snowfall we get, also things like Canadian snow cover is something to look toward in the coming months. Nothing is guaranteed except death and taxes. Ben Franklin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Nothing is guaranteed except death and taxes. Ben Franklin. True to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Interesting Read: http://173.193.223.192/~bestsnow/El_Nino.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 I guess he's moving back to DC. For us, we're fine. Yes, global warming is definitely not real and we definitely won't hit the tipping point for winter snowfall that gradually keeps climbing north... RIC hit in the 70s, DC in the 90s-00s, 2020s-2030s is NYC's time, sorry! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 With a +La Nada, Blocking Patterns are usually persistent. 2003-2004 and 1898-1899 are perfect examples. We'll definitely not have an 1898-1899 Winter, but 2003-2004 is quite possible, but with the Tropics being quiet and all, maybe not so much of that. Also, whoever brought up the 1972-73 analogue, no way. That winter had a Strong El Nino, which is what we are not having. Visiting...... The QBO and solar state will be very similar to 72-73, if all goes as expected. 72-73 is one of the few Ninos that had a mostly negative PDO as well. Unless something drastic happens in the next few months, the PDO will be negative this winter. Other than the strength of that Nino, 72-73 looks like the best choice. It's far from perfect, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Visiting...... The QBO and solar state will be very similar to 72-73, if all goes as expected. 72-73 is one of the few Ninos that had a mostly negative PDO as well. Unless something drastic happens in the next few months, the PDO will be negative this winter. Other than the strength of that Nino, 72-73 looks like the best choice. It's far from perfect, however. 72-73 was a strong Nino..overwelming the pattern..it was the 3rd strongest nino in the last 50 years..the others 97-98 and 82-83..72-73 is a bad analog unless the nino is strong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 72-73 was a strong Nino..overwelming the pattern..it was the 3rd strongest nino in the last 50 years..the others 97-98 and 82-83..72-73 is a bad analog unless the nino is strong I agree that 72-73 is a bad analog because I think the strength of the Niño overwhelms the similarity in QBO and solar state. Also, there were several near misses for the NYC area in 72-73, meaning the record low snowfall total of 2.8" in Central Park is not necessarily indicative of the pattern that winter. Furthermore, the pattern nationally was much colder than other mega-Niños like 97-98 and 82-83, and December 1972 had an historic Arctic outbreak in the West. That was a series of cold winters, with 70-71 being bitter and 71-72 being quite cold as well. Here are temps for 72-73, unusual for a strong Niño with cold in the northern tier: 82-83 and 97-98 had very warm conditions predominate in the north with cooler temperature confined to southern parts of the US: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 72-73 was a strong Nino..overwelming the pattern..it was the 3rd strongest nino in the last 50 years..the others 97-98 and 82-83..72-73 is a bad analog unless the nino is strong I agree that 72-73 is a bad analog because I think the strength of the Niño overwhelms the similarity in QBO and solar state. Also, there were several near misses for the NYC area in 72-73, meaning the record low snowfall total of 2.8" in Central Park is not necessarily indicative of the pattern that winter. Furthermore, the pattern nationally was much colder than other mega-Niños like 97-98 and 82-83, and December 1972 had an historic Arctic outbreak in the West. That was a series of cold winters, with 70-71 being bitter and 71-72 being quite cold as well. Here are temps for 72-73, unusual for a strong Niño with cold in the northern tier: 82-83 and 97-98 had very warm conditions predominate in the north with cooler temperature confined to southern parts of the US: No, I don't like it much either, but I think it's the best of a bad lot. 68-69 is also similar to what we're looking at in terms of strength, solar state, QBO, and PDO. However, 68-69 came after a few years of nadas/ninos. The atmosphere was not in the cold state we see now. I'd have to take the "nina hangover" over the strength of any ENSO event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 ! 2 minutes and 20 seconds of my life gone, and i can't get back. Did he film this on a highway? Sure sounds like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Yes, global warming is definitely not real and we definitely won't hit the tipping point for winter snowfall that gradually keeps climbing north... RIC hit in the 70s, DC in the 90s-00s, 2020s-2030s is NYC's time, sorry! No, I'm pretty sure the low snow years just follow wherever you travel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 No, I don't like it much either, but I think it's the best of a bad lot. 68-69 is also similar to what we're looking at in terms of strength, solar state, QBO, and PDO. However, 68-69 came after a few years of nadas/ninos. The atmosphere was not in the cold state we see now. I'd have to take the "nina hangover" over the strength of any ENSO event. Well if we are going to use Moderate-Strong Ninos as potential analogs for 12-13 then why not 09-10? I guess it is possible that the solar, QBO & PDO is significantly different (unfavorably so for snow lovers) from what it was just 3 winters ago. 2009-10 was also coming off an extended Nina event like 12-13 will be. I am rooting for a 2002-03 repeat but we may just not have enough teleconnectors in our favor to see something similar to 02-03 this winter but maybe things will change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdrenken Posted July 30, 2012 Share Posted July 30, 2012 Accuweather's Winter Outlook lol Yet you praise JB who is forecasting more extreme and came out before AccuWeather? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 No, I'm pretty sure the low snow years just follow wherever you travel. Because NYC didn't see one of its snowiest stretches on record after I moved here in 2008. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 Yet you praise JB who is forecasting more extreme and came out before AccuWeather? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Bump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Hope the vortex over AK picks up and moves somewhere else....a strong +EPO pretty much assures its going to be warm here unless the -NAO can override it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 '83, '93, and '03 all had at least one very large storm...snow for '83 and '03 and snow to a mix in '93 (except to the west where it was mostly snow). Will '13 follow suit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 7, 2012 Author Share Posted August 7, 2012 '83, '93, and '03 all had at least one very large storm...snow for '83 and '03 and snow to a mix in '93 (except to the west where it was mostly snow). Will '13 follow suit? Even up in orange county ny we did not stay all snow in 93 but the dry slot cut off the damage in terms of taint. Forgettable storm for the most part in and around nyc metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Even up in orange county ny we did not stay all snow in 93 but the dry slot cut off the damage in terms of taint. Forgettable storm for the most part in and around nyc metro. It was about an 8 - 12 inch storm in the NYC area...15" up at White Plains...and a good deal more in the hills of N. Jersey...in many cases, only the second best storm of that winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diego Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 It was about an 8 - 12 inch storm in the NYC area...15" up at White Plains...and a good deal more in the hills of N. Jersey...in many cases, only the second best storm of that winter. of concrete (sleet, snow, frozen water). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 of concrete (sleet, snow, frozen water). on 64ST I got 3" of precipitation...The first inch was 9" of wet snow...The next inch was 3" of sleet...The next inch was plain rain with a dusting of snow as the cold came back...I shoveled before the freeze...The next morning you needed a jack hammer to move the solid 6-8" of ice... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 This year will smash records in snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 This year will smash records in snowfall But in which direction? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 But in which direction? 1995-1996 This winter can't be more bad than last winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 But in which direction? The one where there's mass weenie suicide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 Even up in orange county ny we did not stay all snow in 93 but the dry slot cut off the damage in terms of taint. Forgettable storm for the most part in and around nyc metro. I think that is a pretty unfair characterization of the '93 storm.. Back in 93, almost 20 years ago, we had gone almost 10 years w/o a 12"+ storm. The biggest snowstorms b4 it was a storm in Jan. 87 (i think) and Feb '83.. The '93 storm was the beginning of a great stretch of winters in the NYC area... 92/93, 93/94, 95/96, 99/00, 02/03, 03/04, 04/05, 05/06 (kinda - one big storm) 09/10, 10/11 We've made up for our snow drought from years past.. It wouldn't surprise me if the next few years we have pretty crappy winters. But it's anyone's guess.. All these years are going by so quickly..i can't believe the dec 92 storm is almost 20 years ago.. Time just flies! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 Yeah it definitely wasn't forgettable for me. I woke up Sunday to 12" of snow on the ground and that is including the sleet and rain that fell over night and compacted the snow. I didn't have school for 3 days and it was the biggest storm since 1/87. It may not compare to 96 or 2003 but it definitely impacted a lot of people. I didn't think a storm like that was possible since I hadn't seen one since I was a kid and had endured a lot of crappy winters leading up to it. I think that is a pretty unfair characterization of the '93 storm.. Back in 93, almost 20 years ago, we had gone almost 10 years w/o a 12"+ storm. The biggest snowstorms b4 it was a storm in Jan. 87 (i think) and Feb '83.. The '93 storm was the beginning of a great stretch of winters in the NYC area... 92/93, 93/94, 95/96, 99/00, 02/03, 03/04, 04/05, 05/06 (kinda - one big storm) 09/10, 10/11 We've made up for our snow drought from years past.. It wouldn't surprise me if the next few years we have pretty crappy winters. But it's anyone's guess.. All these years are going by so quickly..i can't believe the dec 92 storm is almost 20 years ago.. Time just flies! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diego Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 Yeah it definitely wasn't forgettable for me. I woke up Sunday to 12" of snow on the ground and that is including the sleet and rain that fell over night and compacted the snow. I didn't have school for 3 days and it was the biggest storm since 1/87. It may not compare to 96 or 2003 but it definitely impacted a lot of people. I didn't think a storm like that was possible since I hadn't seen one since I was a kid and had endured a lot of crappy winters leading up to it. It definitly was impacted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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