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Winter 2012-2013


TheTrials

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Honestly, if the CFS v2 is right about El Nino trailing back to Nino 1+2 by DJF, then the chances of Blocking will decrease severely. Maybe, just maybe if El Nino can redevelop further west (like CFS v1 shows), then the chances of an Extended Blocking Winter can surely occur. Or maybe an in-between road with semi blocking can occur as well. I'll look more into the chances we have later.

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Guest Pamela

Snowy all the way down to the south carolina coast - -???????/

I guess the comment was meant in a relative sense...if your average annual snowfall is one inch...a snowy winter would be a winter with one and a half inches recorded...

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last year was horrible but the year before great...Will this year rebound?...here are years that rebounded...

season.....snowfall.....

1876-77...40.4"

1877-78.....8.1"

1878-79...35.7"

1917-18...34.5"

1918-19.....3.8"

1919-20...47.6"

1957-58...44.7"

1958-59...13.0"

1959-60...39.2"

1993-94...53.4"

1994-95...11.8"

1995-96...75.6"

2000-01...35.0"

2001-02.....3.5"

2002-03...49.3"

2010-11...61.9"

2011-12.....7.4"

2012-13...???

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With a +La Nada, Blocking Patterns are usually persistent. 2003-2004 and 1898-1899 are perfect examples. We'll definitely not have an 1898-1899 Winter, but 2003-2004 is quite possible, but with the Tropics being quiet and all, maybe not so much of that. Also, whoever brought up the 1972-73 analogue, no way. That winter had a Strong El Nino, which is what we are not having.

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With a +La Nada, Blocking Patterns are usually persistent. 2003-2004 and 1898-1899 are perfect examples. We'll definitely not have an 1898-1899 Winter, but 2003-2004 is quite possible, but with the Tropics being quiet and all, maybe not so much of that. Also, whoever brought up the 1972-73 analogue, no way. That winter had a Strong El Nino, which is what we are not having.

There is more to analogs than enso

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The upcoming winter will likely be better than the atrocity of last winter, it pretty much is guaranteed to be better. The ENSO state will be better for us but the state of blocking will absolutely determine how much snowfall we get, also things like Canadian snow cover is something to look toward in the coming months.

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