Nikolai Posted July 15, 2012 Share Posted July 15, 2012 If busted forecasts were so valuable people would have accurate winter forecasts by now. That isn't the case, and anyone who does better than 55/45 is a genius (and not real). The 'accurate' forecasts people tout are based on a small sample of years, and as long range forecasts accumulate the winning & always goes down (besides the fact that 'verification' is subjective). Re: analog96-- usedtobe may have never called for a big winter but at the same time analog has never called a correct forecast, so which is worse? usedtobe is fantastic & one of the MA subforum's most valuable assets, especially during the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ict1523 Posted July 15, 2012 Share Posted July 15, 2012 http://www.alaskadis...vIt2qLs.twitter I know The Trials seems obsessed with water temps so i thought i would calm him down a little. Bering Sea ice is blocking ships in Labrador? WTF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted July 16, 2012 Share Posted July 16, 2012 So far my forecast is spot on. Hasnt snowed yet. Did they change the calendar so that July is now part of winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 16, 2012 Author Share Posted July 16, 2012 Did they change the calendar so that July is now part of winter? No, but they have taken March away. We are down to Dec/Jan/and first two weeks of Feb. Sure, we may get a freak storm here and there like last October, but the winter season has def. shortened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 19, 2012 Share Posted July 19, 2012 CFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted July 19, 2012 Share Posted July 19, 2012 CFS Ant, This is the old version of the CFS, there is a newer version, CFS V2 that is out on the CPC website. Here is what it has to say for December into January December looks solid, negative temp anomalies in the east and positive temp anomalies in the west, suggesting a +PNA and an east coast trough. Also note that it has positive anomalies by Greenland and the Davis Straight, which may indicate a -NAO. January looks okay for our area, not as much blocking as December FWIW, but there is still ridging going on in the west. Take this all For What It's Worth, since this is a not so reliable climate model, and it is still several months away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 20, 2012 Share Posted July 20, 2012 That's kind of weird. Would be a screaming jet with clippers and miller bs in the pattern..cold Canada with a west coast ridge. We got break out of the Nina hangover in the mid latittudes first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 20, 2012 Share Posted July 20, 2012 Jamstec's Autumn outlook. Got this from Don who posted it in the main thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 20, 2012 Share Posted July 20, 2012 Latest JAMSTEC for DJF has quite the weak Nino signature with a sexy look across the mid latitudes. Warmth in the nern Plains/sern Canada and chill across the South/East. Classic west based weak Nino w/ warmest SST's in the regions 3.4/4 Precip screams miller a coastal tracks. Take it FWIW. For me, I won't be thinking about my winter outlook until late November, after last year's debacle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted July 20, 2012 Share Posted July 20, 2012 Latest JAMSTEC for DJF has quite the weak Nino signature with a sexy look across the mid latitudes. Warmth in the nern Plains/sern Canada and chill across the South/East. Classic west based weak Nino w/ warmest SST's in the regions 3.4/4 Precip screams miller a coastal tracks. Take it FWIW. For me, I won't be thinking about my winter outlook until late November, after last year's debacle. 2002-03 repeat? Pay attention to the 2nd week in October. In 2002 we dipped to below normal and really never recovered (save the one day spike here or there) until mid-late April. It is the 10 year anniversary of that winter just like last year was the 10 year anniversary of the awful 01-02 winter and look what happened in 11-12. Interesting coincidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted July 20, 2012 Share Posted July 20, 2012 Latest JAMSTEC for DJF has quite the weak Nino signature with a sexy look across the mid latitudes. Warmth in the nern Plains/sern Canada and chill across the South/East. Classic west based weak Nino w/ warmest SST's in the regions 3.4/4 Precip screams miller a coastal tracks. Take it FWIW. For me, I won't be thinking about my winter outlook until late November, after last year's debacle. I dont like how Alaska is cold on those maps. That usually means that there could be a Alaska death vortex over there. Lots of acorns on my oak tree. Doesn't that mean a snowy winter is incoming? (or is it the other way around?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted July 20, 2012 Share Posted July 20, 2012 I dont like how Alaska is cold on those maps. That usually means that there could be a Alaska death vortex over there. Lots of acorns on my oak tree. Doesn't that mean a snowy winter is incoming? (or is it the other way around?) -.1 to 0 is 95% of the cold readings showing up on that map. The rest is actually above normal except extreme western areas but still that is only -.1 to -.3 That's harmless. I'd do cartwheels if that map comes to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 21, 2012 Share Posted July 21, 2012 Latest JAMSTEC for DJF has quite the weak Nino signature with a sexy look across the mid latitudes. Warmth in the nern Plains/sern Canada and chill across the South/East. Classic west based weak Nino w/ warmest SST's in the regions 3.4/4 Precip screams miller a coastal tracks. Take it FWIW. For me, I won't be thinking about my winter outlook until late November, after last year's debacle. Kind of weird since weak Ninos do not support a Miller A track at all. Then again, its the JAMSTEC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdrenken Posted July 21, 2012 Share Posted July 21, 2012 Kind of weird since weak Ninos do not support a Miller A track at all. Then again, its the JAMSTEC. Not to mention what it was showing last month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 21, 2012 Share Posted July 21, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 21, 2012 Author Share Posted July 21, 2012 that has inland runner written all over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 21, 2012 Share Posted July 21, 2012 that has inland runner written all over it. Yep, no high to the north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 21, 2012 Author Share Posted July 21, 2012 wasting good blocking, not a good sign IMHO. +++++NAO winter coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 21, 2012 Share Posted July 21, 2012 wasting good blocking, not a good sign IMHO. +++++NAO winter coming. It's only July 21. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted July 21, 2012 Share Posted July 21, 2012 nothing can be worse than this past winter, my god was it awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted July 21, 2012 Share Posted July 21, 2012 nothing can be worse than this past winter, my god was it awful. 1972-73 was worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 21, 2012 Share Posted July 21, 2012 nothing can be worse than this past winter, my god was it awful. 4 inches here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 21, 2012 Author Share Posted July 21, 2012 4 inches here your girlfriend must be miserable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 21, 2012 Share Posted July 21, 2012 your girlfriend must be miserable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 21, 2012 Share Posted July 21, 2012 your girlfriend must be miserable Want to see a pic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 21, 2012 Share Posted July 21, 2012 1972-73 was worse. Last winter was worse than 2001-2002 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 21, 2012 Author Share Posted July 21, 2012 Want to see a pic? does your phone have 100x zoom? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 21, 2012 Share Posted July 21, 2012 does your phone have 100x zoom? Yes it does. Anyway back to weather. Can't wait for this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted July 21, 2012 Share Posted July 21, 2012 -NAO has dominated since late May Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 22, 2012 Share Posted July 22, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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