ag3 Posted July 12, 2012 Share Posted July 12, 2012 irrelevant. We didn't have 80 degree waters off the coast of cape cod those two years. Sometime last year everything turned and now it's all messed up. Sea Surface temps can quickly be erased by one wet snow or sleet event. P.S. Those SST fancy maps are weird and over done. Here are ACTUAL water temps live: 54NM SE of Nantucket: 66.9 Georges Bank: 62.4 East of Cape Cod: 64.2 Nantucket Sound: 73.9 16 miles E of Boston: 70.9 Inland sea surface temps are 73-75 but offshore waters are in the mid 60's. http://www.ndbc.noaa...p?station=44008 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 12, 2012 Author Share Posted July 12, 2012 Sea Surface temps can quickly be erased by one wet snow or sleet event. P.S. Those SST fancy maps are weird and over done. Here are ACTUAL water temps live: 54NM SE of Nantucket: 66.9 Georges Bank: 62.4 East of Cape Cod: 64.2 Nantucket Sound: 73.9 16 miles E of Boston: 70.9 Inland sea surface temps are 73-75 but offshore waters are in the mid 60's. http://www.ndbc.noaa...p?station=44008 LOL, you are a fisherman, so i know you understand this, but when fish that live and spawn in the CARRIBEAN are up off the coast of cape cod, we got problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 12, 2012 Share Posted July 12, 2012 LOL, you are a fisherman, so i know you understand this, but when fish that live and spawn in the CARRIBEAN are up off the coast of cape cod, we got problems. Happens every year. They ride the gulf stream. Divers always get tropical fish in the Hamptons and other areas. Triggerfish come into our area heavy every couple years as well. Its all about the gulf stream. Tuna, Mahi, Whales and other warm watered species also follow the gulf stream to as north as Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killabud Posted July 12, 2012 Share Posted July 12, 2012 tropical fish aren't all that uncommon "here" in the summer.most are just juvenile fish swept up in the gulf stream....if they start surviving the winters,we'd obviously have a problem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 12, 2012 Share Posted July 12, 2012 tropical fish aren't all that uncommon "here" in the summer.most are just juvenile fish swept up in the gulf stream....if they start surviving the winters,we'd obviously have a problem Exactly. There are many tropical species that show up in local waters of the northeast every year. They ride the gulf stream and then head into the warm bays. A diver once told me an amazing amount of tropical fish hang right next to the Ponquogue Bridge in the Hampton Bays. Once I caught a rare Amberjack at that location as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 12, 2012 Share Posted July 12, 2012 Tropical fish in Shinnecock NY: http://www.fishguyphotos.com/?page_id=202 A Blue Angelfish (Holocanthus isabelita) and a Bi-color Damselfish (Stegastes partitus) at the Ponquogue Bridge, Hampton Bays, NY. Common occurence. Hit that link for some fascinating facts about the gulf stream and tropical fish in our local waters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted July 12, 2012 Share Posted July 12, 2012 Happens every year. They ride the gulf stream. Divers always get tropical fish in the Hamptons and other areas. Triggerfish come into our area heavy every couple years as well. Its all about the gulf stream. Tuna, Mahi, Whales and other warm watered species also follow the gulf stream to as north as Maine. I caught a Mahi Mahi on a charter out of Orient Point a few years ago. It tasted bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 12, 2012 Share Posted July 12, 2012 I caught a Mahi Mahi on a charter out of Orient Point a few years ago. It tasted bad. Really? Its one of my favorite fish to eat and world reknown as one of the sweetest tasting fish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted July 12, 2012 Share Posted July 12, 2012 Really? Its one of my favorite fish to eat and world reknown as one of the sweetest tasting fish. It tasted too much like canned tuna fish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 12, 2012 Share Posted July 12, 2012 It tasted too much like canned tuna fish. Strange. You sure it wasn's a false albacore? Those come locally also and are not a good eating fish at all. Hence why they are called "false" albacore and not the tasty real albacore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 12, 2012 Author Share Posted July 12, 2012 this fish wasn't anywhere near the gulf stream. Read the article, first time EVER being spotted this far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted July 12, 2012 Share Posted July 12, 2012 1972-73 was one of the top 3 strongest EL Ninos in history. Nothing really supports that happening right now. All the other three winters were pretty good. 1963-64 was a nice winter. 1976-77 didn't have anything impressive in terms of snow fall, but had super cold to the extent that the Chessy Bay froze over and snow flurries fell in west Florida. 2009-2010 we all know was a very snowy, but not very cold winter, with the heaviest snow from PHL-BWI. Agree 100 % We don't want a strong Nino obviously - we want a weak or weak to moderate nino with a neg nao - and other factors have to go our way also BUT the big 2 are weak nino and neg nao for increased chances above avg snowfall....all indications point to a weakor weak to mod nino right now.......hopefully we can start building up that snow pack earlier in the fall season up in canada also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 12, 2012 Share Posted July 12, 2012 this fish wasn't anywhere near the gulf stream. Read the article, first time EVER being spotted this far north. It's common, but unknown. Click my link. Hampton Bays, Shinnecock is nowhere near the gulf stream but always has amazing tropical fish. No one would ever expect the life found there, including a marvelous lionfish found 5 years ago! Tropical fish ride the main gulf stream and then break off and follow natural currents into our bays and further north. Back bays in our area always get to 80+ degrees and the tropical fish feast in our local reefs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 Tropical fish in Shinnecock NY: http://www.fishguyph...om/?page_id=202 A Blue Angelfish (Holocanthus isabelita) and a Bi-color Damselfish (Stegastes partitus) at the Ponquogue Bridge, Hampton Bays, NY. Common occurence. Hit that link for some fascinating facts about the gulf stream and tropical fish in our local waters. Nice website. I like the landscape photos, especially the sunset w/ the lighthouse and the view in Maine. Very cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 Strange. You sure it wasn's a false albacore? Those come locally also and are not a good eating fish at all. Hence why they are called "false" albacore and not the tasty real albacore. Nah, the deckhand knew what it was, and I also know what a Mahi Mahi looks like. this fish wasn't anywhere near the gulf stream. Read the article, first time EVER being spotted this far north. You need to stop panicking the world is not coming to an end because the SST's are a degree or two above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 irrelevant. We didn't have 80 degree waters off the coast of cape cod those two years. Sometime last year everything turned and now it's all messed up. You really need to stop watching this movie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 The excess warmth near Cape Cod also explains all the early season great white encounters up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted July 14, 2012 Share Posted July 14, 2012 http://www.alaskadispatch.com/article/brutal-bering-sea-ice-blocking-arctic-supply-ships#.UADMvIt2qLs.twitter I know The Trials seems obsessed with water temps so i thought i would calm him down a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted July 14, 2012 Share Posted July 14, 2012 Believe it or not, there is a Climate Change subforum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted July 14, 2012 Share Posted July 14, 2012 Believe it or not, there is a Climate Change subforum Yep, I am one of the frequent contributors to that subforum. I actually became skeptical of the AGW Theory that the IPCC is pushing because of An Inconvienient Truth, ironically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 14, 2012 Author Share Posted July 14, 2012 Wes (Usedtobe) says winter cancel at the conference. He is never wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted July 14, 2012 Share Posted July 14, 2012 Wes (Usedtobe) says winter cancel at the conference. He is never wrong. I don't think he's ever called for a big winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted July 14, 2012 Share Posted July 14, 2012 Wes gave a great talk. Winter could be very interesting this year...or so I hope Wes (Usedtobe) says winter cancel at the conference. He is never wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 14, 2012 Author Share Posted July 14, 2012 Not what aviationdave said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted July 14, 2012 Share Posted July 14, 2012 Not what aviationdave said. I think Wes is too smart a man to issue a winter forecast in July. Unlike others who issued a winter forecast on May 30th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 14, 2012 Author Share Posted July 14, 2012 I think Wes is too smart a man to issue a winter forecast in July. Unlike others who issued a winter forecast on May 30th So far my forecast is spot on. Hasnt snowed yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted July 15, 2012 Share Posted July 15, 2012 So far my forecast is spot on. Hasnt snowed yet. long range winter forecasts are inaccurate for the most part at best - that was proven last winter by many folks - everything can look good on paper but when it comes down to it mother nature does what it wants too no matter how good or how bad the enso - nao - pna - snowcover etc etc is.....so many complicatd variables at work and how they interact at any given time makes it hard to predict past a certain time period.........and the various models have enough trouble spitting out half accurate outlooks with the data available past 3 - 5 days - to try and do it weeks or months in advance - the results are not usually accurate.... maybe some day they will be who knows...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted July 15, 2012 Share Posted July 15, 2012 long range winter forecasts are inaccurate for the most part at best - that was proven last winter by many folks - everything can look good on paper but when it comes down to it mother nature does what it wants too no matter how good or how bad the enso - nao - pna - snowcover etc etc is.....so many complicatd variables at work and how they interact at any given time makes it hard to predict past a certain time period.........and the various models have enough trouble spitting out half accurate outlooks with the data available past 3 - 5 days - to try and do it weeks or months in advance - the results are not usually accurate.... maybe some day they will be who knows...... Most of the recent major winter forecast busts could have been seen by some in hindsight. I missed 2001-2002 myself as did around 90% of the meteorology field but I swore after that I would always take additional factors into consideration. I did that last fall and strongly considered the lag effect of the ocean-atmospheric factor which virtually no meteorologists ever seem to do and I did not do until after the 01-02 debacle even though that one had nothing to do with atmospheric lag effect itself. 98-99 was another case of the lag effect mucking up the winter forecast for many, alot of people banked on the La Nina causing a cold/snowy winter in the northern Plains but they neglected of course to remember we came off a record strong El Nino the previous winter which ultimately caused the winter in those areas to behave much more like an El Nino. The 2002-2003 hype group for this coming winter also has to be wary, 02-03 came following 2 winters of near neutral conditions, this time if we have a similar strength El Nino we're coming off 2 La Ninas so the chance we'd see a highly active STJ is probably quite a bit lower, hence the people who go off the charts this winter with big ice/snow storms for Dallas, Memphis, Atlanta, and Raleigh will probably be disappointed come April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 15, 2012 Share Posted July 15, 2012 Most of the recent major winter forecast busts could have been seen by some in hindsight. I missed 2001-2002 myself as did around 90% of the meteorology field but I swore after that I would always take additional factors into consideration. I did that last fall and strongly considered the lag effect of the ocean-atmospheric factor which virtually no meteorologists ever seem to do and I did not do until after the 01-02 debacle even though that one had nothing to do with atmospheric lag effect itself. 98-99 was another case of the lag effect mucking up the winter forecast for many, alot of people banked on the La Nina causing a cold/snowy winter in the northern Plains but they neglected of course to remember we came off a record strong El Nino the previous winter which ultimately caused the winter in those areas to behave much more like an El Nino. The 2002-2003 hype group for this coming winter also has to be wary, 02-03 came following 2 winters of near neutral conditions, this time if we have a similar strength El Nino we're coming off 2 La Ninas so the chance we'd see a highly active STJ is probably quite a bit lower, hence the people who go off the charts this winter with big ice/snow storms for Dallas, Memphis, Atlanta, and Raleigh will probably be disappointed come April. I was on a good streak from 07/08 through 10/11 but busted badly for last winter's forecast. But after researching what went wrong, I think November holds a significant amount of value in terms of the ensuing winter. If I had issued my 11-12 outlook in late November rather than late October, I would have seen the latest unfavorable developments. I found some fairly good correlations with Nov to DJF so from now on Im going to try waiting until the last week in November. Preferably early December, but that would be cheating. I do agree about the lag effect, and that probably had something to do with last winter. Additionally the stratospheric vortex was very strong, with a cold stratosphere early winter. Solar activity (solar wind, geomag) ramped up quite a bit prior to DJF as well, which I think aided in keeping the AO sky high. Overall it was a perfect storm of factors for a +NAO/AO winter which ultimately ruined us. The SSW event mid winter yielded blocking in the wrong part of the nern hemisphere, thus our torch continued unabated. Each busted forecast is a learning tool for the next one.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted July 15, 2012 Share Posted July 15, 2012 Most of the recent major winter forecast busts could have been seen by some in hindsight. I missed 2001-2002 myself as did around 90% of the meteorology field but I swore after that I would always take additional factors into consideration. I did that last fall and strongly considered the lag effect of the ocean-atmospheric factor which virtually no meteorologists ever seem to do and I did not do until after the 01-02 debacle even though that one had nothing to do with atmospheric lag effect itself. 98-99 was another case of the lag effect mucking up the winter forecast for many, alot of people banked on the La Nina causing a cold/snowy winter in the northern Plains but they neglected of course to remember we came off a record strong El Nino the previous winter which ultimately caused the winter in those areas to behave much more like an El Nino. The 2002-2003 hype group for this coming winter also has to be wary, 02-03 came following 2 winters of near neutral conditions, this time if we have a similar strength El Nino we're coming off 2 La Ninas so the chance we'd see a highly active STJ is probably quite a bit lower, hence the people who go off the charts this winter with big ice/snow storms for Dallas, Memphis, Atlanta, and Raleigh will probably be disappointed come April. Good post. Yeah, I suppose you would need a high-end Nino to get the southern stream cranking this winter. As another example, I recall the southern stream being fairly active in the moderate Nina winter of 2010-2011, but that was coming off the strong Nino of the previous winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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