TheTrials Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 Prediction: La Nada and a raging AO due to solar issues so very little snow and cold. Maybe an event around Valentines day. Good for the winter golfers, bad for the winter plowers. Discuss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 EL Nino Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 30, 2012 Author Share Posted May 30, 2012 EL Nino over done and you can see there is a trend to go back towards weak nina, so if you average it out, la nada. Primary analogue is 01-02, secondary is 97-98, terciary is 68-69. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 Prediction: La Nada and a raging AO due to solar issues so very little snow and cold. Maybe an event around Valentines day. Good for the winter golfers, bad for the winter plowers. Discuss. Swinging for the fences already trials huh? I think we should wait till atleast september to start making these predictions actually have some merit. I mean we havent even started meteorlogical summer yet lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 Means nothing. Its all about the blocking and the Nao. La Nina or El Nino just determine the size of the storm because of the southern vs. northern streams. Give me blocking and a -nao in December and then we're talking. No one can predict the nao more then 2-3 weeks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 Prediction: La Nada and a raging AO due to solar issues so very little snow and cold. Maybe an event around Valentines day. Good for the winter golfers, bad for the winter plowers. Discuss. hopefully this will be as bad as your call for last winter...and LOL at winter calls in May Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 over done and you can see there is a trend to go back towards weak nina, so if you average it out, la nada. Primary analogue is 01-02, secondary is 97-98, terciary is 68-69. you really see us gettin back to back 01-02 winters? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 30, 2012 Author Share Posted May 30, 2012 you really see us gettin back to back 01-02 winters? its happened before, remembe the entire 80's? late 90s? Im not speaking nino state however, just end resutls, which were crappy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 I don't see a winter that bad for the northeast to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 its happened before, remembe the entire 80's? late 90s? Im not speaking nino state however, just end resutls, which were crappy. 80's weren't THAT bad. 01-02 and 11-12 are in a class all by themselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 30, 2012 Author Share Posted May 30, 2012 I don't see a winter that bad for the northeast to be honest. not for you guys, but in our area, certain doom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 30, 2012 Author Share Posted May 30, 2012 80's weren't THAT bad. 01-02 and 11-12 are in a class all by themselves. other than 83, the 80's were terrible, especially away from the island. I dont see another good winter around here probably for 5 years or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 Sounds like reverse psychology to me, definite bad winter coming up! We have nowhere to go but up from last winter's debacle, which is always going to be a bright side to a disastrous winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 30, 2012 Author Share Posted May 30, 2012 Sounds like reverse psychology to me, definite bad winter coming up! We have nowhere to go but up from last winter's debacle, which is always going to be a bright side to a disastrous winter. not true, several places had 15 inches or so of snow last year after the huge October storm. You could get a winter where there is no snow for anyone in the tri-state. From October through April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 not true, several places had 15 inches or so of snow last year after the huge October storm. You could get a winter where there is no snow for anyone in the tri-state. From October through April. Well I'm referring to the immediate tri-state area. I don't think that's ever happened for the area, even one snow shower is enough to give us a trace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 30, 2012 Author Share Posted May 30, 2012 Well I'm referring to the immediate tri-state area. I don't think that's ever happened for the area, even one snow shower is enough to give us a trace. I think central park recording like only a trace in 99, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 over done and you can see there is a trend to go back towards weak nina, so if you average it out, la nada. Dont understand what you're saying, the hard data is already nearly exactly La Nada and almost every ensemble member takes it into Weak Niño territory. The mean of the ensemble members gets to values near 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 I don't see a winter that bad for the northeast to be honest. Agreed -- also have you seen the blocking developing this week over Canada and Greenland? Holy moly. Positive anomalies over the entire blocking region and then some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 over done and you can see there is a trend to go back towards weak nina, so if you average it out, la nada. Primary analogue is 01-02, secondary is 97-98, terciary is 68-69. You post La Nada on top, and then 97-98 as an analog. You lost any shred of credibility with this post right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 30, 2012 Author Share Posted May 30, 2012 You post La Nada on top, and then 97-98 as an analog. You lost any shred of credibility with this post right there. did i say my analogues were strictly enso based? There is a lot that go into analogues, not just enso. Solar, lunar, volcanic, qbo, mjo, ebo, nao, all are factored in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 did i say my analogues were strictly enso based? There is a lot that go into analogues, not just enso. Solar, lunar, volcanic, qbo, mjo, ebo, nao, all are factored in there. Anyone with any credentials, period, knows that if you're forecasting a near-neutral state you ALWAYS AUTOMATICALLY throw out years that were strong ENSO years, EVEN IF the pattern matches your forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 30, 2012 Author Share Posted May 30, 2012 Agreed -- also have you seen the blocking developing this week over Canada and Greenland? Holy moly. Positive anomalies over the entire blocking region and then some. we had a ton of blocking last summer, and look what happened? not a good predictor of the NAO state next winter. We were blocky all the way until September and we never really got it back, and when we did, on the wrong side of the globe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 Actually Trials, a weakly active sun as we are seeing now leads to a -AO, and cold winters in the United States and Western Europe, so your logic is totally flawed. http://www.nature.co...l/ngeo1282.html An influence of solar irradiance variations on Earth’s surface climate has been repeatedly suggested, based on correlations between solar variability and meteorological variables1. Specifically, weaker westerly winds have been observed in winters with a less active sun, for example at the minimum phase of the 11-year sunspot cycle2, 3, 4. With some possible exceptions5, 6, it has proved difficult for climate models to consistently reproduce this signal7, 8. Spectral Irradiance Monitor satellite measurements indicate that variations in solar ultraviolet irradiance may be larger than previously thought9. Here we drive an ocean–atmosphere climate model with ultraviolet irradiance variations based on these observations. We find that the model responds to the solar minimum with patterns in surface pressure and temperature that resemble the negative phase of the North Atlantic or Arctic Oscillation, of similar magnitude to observations. In our model, the anomalies descend through the depth of the extratropical winter atmosphere. If the updated measurements of solar ultraviolet irradiance are correct, low solar activity, as observed during recent years, drives cold winters in northern Europe and the United States Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 30, 2012 Author Share Posted May 30, 2012 Anyone with any credentials, period, knows that if you're forecasting a near-neutral state you ALWAYS AUTOMATICALLY throw out years that were strong ENSO years, EVEN IF the pattern matches your forecast. funny, because there is a large contigent who use opposite enso states when looking at analogues, the guy down in DC is one of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 30, 2012 Author Share Posted May 30, 2012 Actually, Trials, a weakly active sun as we are seeing now leads to a -AO, and cold winters in the United States and Western Europe, so your logic is totally flawed. http://www.nature.co...l/ngeo1282.html An influence of solar irradiance variations on Earth’s surface climate has been repeatedly suggested, based on correlations between solar variability and meteorological variables1. Specifically, weaker westerly winds have been observed in winters with a less active sun, for example at the minimum phase of the 11-year sunspot cycle2, 3, 4. With some possible exceptions5, 6, it has proved difficult for climate models to consistently reproduce this signal7, 8. Spectral Irradiance Monitor satellite measurements indicate that variations in solar ultraviolet irradiance may be larger than previously thought9. Here we drive an ocean–atmosphere climate model with ultraviolet irradiance variations based on these observations. We find that the model responds to the solar minimum with patterns in surface pressure and temperature that resemble the negative phase of the North Atlantic or Arctic Oscillation, of similar magnitude to observations. In our model, the anomalies descend through the depth of the extratropical winter atmosphere. If the updated measurements of solar ultraviolet irradiance are correct, low solar activity, as observed during recent years, drives cold winters in northern Europe and the United States funny, because I don't remember saying anything about what the sun is doing this moment, i am speaking about where its going, and a strongly active sun is coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 Central Park has never recorded back to back winters with less than 10". Though 96-97 had exactly 10" right before 97-98 had 5.5". 88-90 wasn't pretty either and 49-55 were all abysmal between 10 and 20" I think central park recording like only a trace in 99, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 30, 2012 Author Share Posted May 30, 2012 Dont understand what you're saying, the hard data is already nearly exactly La Nada and almost every ensemble member takes it into Weak Niño territory. The mean of the ensemble members gets to values near 1. other data has a stonger nino so when you throw it all together, it looks like la nada, especially given how some even show a nina developing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 funny, because I don't remember saying anything about what the sun is doing this moment, i am speaking about where its going, and a strongly active sun is coming. So what did you mean by "a raging AO due to solar issues?" I take it you are unaware that the sun's activity has largely decreased over the last several years, and we are going into a quiet solar period not seen in over 400 years? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 30, 2012 Author Share Posted May 30, 2012 So what did you mean by "a raging AO due to solar issues?" I take it you are unaware that the sun's activity has largely decreased over the last several years, and we are going into a quiet solar period not seen in over 400 years? there are indications the suns activity is going to be picking up. I do believe the mighty HM has made reference to this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 other data has a stonger nino so when you throw it all together, it looks like la nada, especially given how some even show a nina developing. There is NOTHING that shows a Nina developing. Some data show the Nino strengthening, approaching moderate, and then leveling off at weak Nino. NOTHING shows a Nina developing. Even IF you extrapolated, that NIna probably wouldn't develop until summer 2013 on the most aggressive data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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