Disc Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Roanoke hourly forecast as of now still showing a fairly good percentage of cloud cover from 1am onward for here, but it looks like with some other good dynamics in place, the sun could be somewhat of a bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 31, 2012 Author Share Posted May 31, 2012 Good news Debbie Downer, the synoptic setup isn't right for that scenario. You are a weenie saver! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Good news Debbie Downer, the synoptic setup isn't right for that scenario. So nice of you to chime in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Yikes, forgot the overwhelming pessimism present in AM threads Think we see a pretty solid convection line push through with fairly widespread wind-related severe. And with enough breaks in the clouds and heating think we can get a few discrete cells out ahead of the main line that should be fairly potent. Gotta go to SNE threads for unwarranted optimism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Gotta go to SNE threads for unwarranted optimism. No kidding, the gross expectations preceding the previous severe event were nauseating. At least it's the first time in a while (probably since last summer) we've had a solid convective potential and weren't merely waiting on a dying MCS at nightfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Yell at me if this was already posted, http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/spcprod/12/ but it is looking like it gets discrete storms going over the warm front and kills off any overnight convection so that we don't need to worry about surface heating on Friday. Also looks like a two wave event for some with the threat for tornadoes with WF and squall line getting going around 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Yell at me if this was already posted, http://www.emc.ncep....yle/spcprod/12/ but it is looking like it gets discrete storms going over the warm front and kills off any overnight convection so that we don't need to worry about surface heating on Friday. Also looks like a two wave event for some with the threat for tornadoes with WF and squall line getting going around 0z. I was just looking for this on another site but didn't have as many fields.. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Yell at me if this was already posted, http://www.emc.ncep....yle/spcprod/12/ but it is looking like it gets discrete storms going over the warm front and kills off any overnight convection so that we don't need to worry about surface heating on Friday. Also looks like a two wave event for some with the threat for tornadoes with WF and squall line getting going around 0z. Fairly similar to what I thought yesterday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Decent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 31, 2012 Author Share Posted May 31, 2012 Decent Those low level winds have a lot of easterly component Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Those low level winds have a lot of easterly component Catch-22. Need the shear, gotta dance with the devil Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 31, 2012 Author Share Posted May 31, 2012 Catch-22. Need the shear, gotta dance with the devil Clearly we are walking a pretty fine line. Chances are we fall flat on our face lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 anyone have any decent sites explaining how to read a skew-t? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 I like that cap in place as well early on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 I don't mind a later start time, means I can get home and enjoy it rather than have to drive home during it I love being home by 3:10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 This area highlighted is the area to watch for the isolated tornado threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Those low level winds have a lot of easterly component I'm far enough away from the ocean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 I love being home by 3:10 Shove it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 This area highlighted is the area to watch for the isolated tornado threat. Thats in my hood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Thats in my hood Post rush-hour chase? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Shove it 20 min commute...on a bad day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Post rush-hour chase? From my porch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 From my porch. drinking an O'douls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Thats in my hood Me too, it was nice knowing you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Me too, it was nice knowing you How many flights are going to be cancelled? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 The 15z SPC SREF is alright with instability has about 1000-1500 J/KG of SBcape and MLcape with LI values of -3C to -4C...I guess with the shear in place those numbers aren't too bad but if you want to see moderate risk type stuff you're going to need more instability than this. If we would see something like 2000-2500+ J/KG of SBcape and LI values <-5C to -6C then we would probably see a moderate risk. I really wish we had a better idea on the instability but we'll just have to wait until the AM to do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Me too, it was nice knowing you Breeze and a sprinkle. That will be it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 How many flights are going to be cancelled? Out of all 3 metro airport or just IAD wise ass? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Breeze and a sprinkle. That will be it In rose hill Indeed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThreeRedheads Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 anyone have any decent sites explaining how to read a skew-t? Here's one from Mark/Ellinwood: http://madusweather.com/2012/01/meteorology-101-sounding-basics/#comment-985 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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