H2O Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Of course sim radar is not going to pick up on cells. It's going to be a bad day tomorrow no matter what. Tuesday was not that great a set up and there was a bunch of storms. But nothing significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 But nothing significant. Well maybe not around you. But there was a possible tornado up my way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 But nothing significant. 95% chance of wizinator seeing rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Well maybe not around you. But there was a possible tornado up my way. is there a storm report for that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 But nothing significant. Its always worse up his way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 is there a storm report for that? http://www.abc27.com/story/18651525/did-a-tornado-touchdown-in-cumberland-county 2105 UNK 2 N MOOREDALE CUMBERLAND PA 4016 7729 NUMEROUS TREES AND WIRES DOWN (CTP) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 http://www.abc27.com...mberland-county 2105 UNK 2 N MOOREDALE CUMBERLAND PA 4016 7729 NUMEROUS TREES AND WIRES DOWN (CTP) given that the nws never confirmed a tornado, I'd go with it didn't happen. Probably some decent straightline wind damage. The environment down there was not favorable for tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 One thing you gotta give to the MA is the ability to freak out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 given that the nws never confirmed a tornado, I'd go with it didn't happen. Probably some decent straightline wind damage. The environment down there was not favorable for tornadoes. Well not sure if they determined anything yet since it was on Tuesday, they probably looked yesterday so idk how long it takes to decide but today or tomorrow i'd guess? How that grass in the field was blown down was cool looking. You watch the video? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 given strong isentropic upglide/lift, and elevated instability...I think there could be strongly forced low top squall line extending northward through west/central PA and WNY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Laugh now brother, you will be amongst us in 2 months Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Well not sure if they determined anything yet since it was on Tuesday, they probably looked yesterday so idk how long it takes to decide but today or tomorrow i'd guess? How that grass in the field was blown down was cool looking. You watch the video? I'd guess a microburst or something of that nature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Laugh now brother, you will be amongst us in 2 months But this year I'm not bringing my 115F heat wave with me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 But this year I'm not bringing my 115F heat wave with me... Forky is disappointed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 I'd guess a microburst or something of that nature. Probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Well not sure if they determined anything yet since it was on Tuesday, they probably looked yesterday so idk how long it takes to decide but today or tomorrow i'd guess? How that grass in the field was blown down was cool looking. You watch the video? I'd guess a microburst or something of that nature. Could you guys take this to another thread? Like Tuesday's thread about that threat since its already done and over with? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Could you guys take this to another thread? Like Tuesday's thread about that threat since its already done and over with? We'll we are done talking about it anyways. But, sorry for the inconvenience.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 yeah, not as impressive as I was hoping for. skewt/hodo from 12z NAM for BWI at 21z Friday LI values are only -2.4, not very impressive. CAPE is ~1200, not very impressive. Convective temp is 85*, which is rather high, given what will probably be a contaminated warm sector with intermittent sunshine. Starting to think we do not see a MOD Risk, but get a 30% wind, 5% tornado, 15% hail. Perhaps a Hatched area for wind with the 1730 SWODY1 should more sunshine materialize and allow thunderstorms to tap the better winds aloft. EDIT: I made a mistake on the TOR number and re-adjusted it to 5%, thought it went 2% -> 10%. My bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 LI values are only -2.4, not very impressive. CAPE is ~1200, not very impressive. Convective temp is 85*, which is rather high for what will probably be a contaminated warm sector with intermittent sunshine. Starting to think we do not see a MOD Risk, but get a 30% wind, 10% tornado, 15% hail. Perhaps a Hatched area for wind with the 1730 SWODY1 should more sunshine materialize and allow thunderstorms to tap the better winds aloft. LWX discussion is still saying light rain showers over western and southern portion of the CWA Friday morning. As it has been mentioned, morning showers and how fast they clear the area will be key to what can build later in the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 31, 2012 Author Share Posted May 31, 2012 LWX discussion is still saying light rain showers over western and southern portion of the CWA Friday morning. As it has been mentioned, morning showers and how fast they clear the area will be key to what can build later in the day I can recall some good severe days with a few showers early in the day (maybe June 4, 2008?). I read somewhere once that it serves to increase low level moisture? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Almost no chance higher than 5% tornado IMO. And that might be north of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Almost no chance higher than 5% tornado IMO. And that might be north of the area. yeah...SE surface winds are nice...but they remain SE at too high of a level to really get 0-1km helicity to anything of note. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 I can recall some good severe days with a few showers early in the day (maybe June 4, 2008?). I read somewhere once that it serves to increase low level moisture? June 4th 2008 did indeed have morning showers. In that thread I posted yesterday from Eastern someone had posted a loop of the whole day. But, I think the morning showers were spotty in nature, which sounds like what tomorrow would be too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Almost no chance higher than 5% tornado IMO. And that might be north of the area. I just realized that and modified my earlier post. Trying to do three things at once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 yeah...SE surface winds are nice...but they remain SE at too high of a level to really get 0-1km helicity to anything of note. I think it should be a 2% but I'd not be surprised to see them go 5%. Comparatively I still think the other day was a better setup for tornadoes over NY etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 I can recall some good severe days with a few showers early in the day (maybe June 4, 2008?). I read somewhere once that it serves to increase low level moisture? We have plenty of moisture at all levels, we have too much moisture. I'm worried that we won't have enough CAPE to lift the heavy water logged parcels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 I think it should be a 2% but I'd not be surprised to see them go 5%. Comparatively I still think the other day was a better setup for tornadoes over NY etc. yeah, i'd agree. Even then, I've only seen one report of a tornado...an EF0 in VT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 31, 2012 Author Share Posted May 31, 2012 I think it should be a 2% but I'd not be surprised to see them go 5%. Comparatively I still think the other day was a better setup for tornadoes over NY etc. Even though the setup may not be super favorable - 5% tornado risks are not all that uncommon. I would say that we generally get a 5% when there's a 30%. 10% is where the rarity comes in. Maybe you are jaded by your tornado trip - Still, it's not the percentages that matter - it's the end result! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 We have plenty of moisture at all levels, we have too much moisture. I'm worried that we won't have enough CAPE to lift the heavy water logged parcels. I'm not sure that makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 We have plenty of moisture at all levels, we have too much moisture. I'm worried that we won't have enough CAPE to lift the heavy water logged parcels. huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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