yoda Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Day 1 is out with a 30 wind and 5 tor in Southern Ohio Valley region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Well the new day 1 just came out so the day 2 shouldn't be too far behind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 SLGT risk... 30% probs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0100 AM CDT THU MAY 31 2012 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE EASTERN STATES... ..MUCH OF THE EASTERN STATES THE FIRST DAY OF JUNE WILL SEE THE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ADVANCEMENT OF A POTENT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE/SEVERE POTENTIAL FOCUSED ALONG/AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT AS IT CROSSES THE APPALACHIANS FRIDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON. THE PARENT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TREND TOWARD A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT ON FRIDAY...WITH A STEADILY STRENGTHENING BELT OF DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST STATES. ACCORDINGLY...AMPLE FORCING FOR ASCENT/VERTICAL SHEAR WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUSTAINED STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS WITHIN A DIURNALLY DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH SUCH DEVELOPMENT FOCUSED IN VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT OR PERHAPS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. IT IS LIKELY THAT AMPLE PRE-FRONTAL INSOLATION WILL COINCIDE WITH AN INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...SUCH THAT A BROAD AREA OF 1000-2000 J/KG MLCAPE SEEMS LIKELY FROM THE CAROLINAS TO THE DELMARVA/SOUTHERN PA...ALONG/SOUTH OF A NORTHWARD-SHIFTING WARM FRONT ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES/DELMARVA. THAT SAID...LOCALLY STRONGER DESTABILIZATION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS/GA/NORTH FL ALBEIT WITHIN A WEAKER SHEAR REGIME. OVERALL...DAMAGING WINDS /POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD AT THAT/ AND SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FROM WHAT SHOULD MAINLY BE A MULTICELLULAR/LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. THAT SAID...SOME SUPERCELLS...INCLUDING A TORNADO THREAT...COULD OCCUR MAINLY ACROSS VA/DELMARVA REGION INTO SOUTHERN PA/NJ PROVIDED 1/ SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION OCCURS NEAR THE WARM FRONT AND 2/ SEMI-DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHERE A LINEAR MODE SHOULD BE MORE DOMINANT. SOMEWHAT HIGHER PROBABILITIES/PERHAPS EVEN A CATEGORICAL MODERATE RISK MIGHT BE WARRANTED IN SUBSEQUENT CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 SLGT risk... 30% probs OVERALL...DAMAGING WINDS /POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD AT THAT/ AND SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FROM WHAT SHOULD MAINLY BE A MULTICELLULAR/LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. THAT SAID...SOME SUPERCELLS...INCLUDING A TORNADO THREAT...COULD OCCUR MAINLY ACROSS VA/DELMARVA REGION INTO SOUTHERN PA/NJ PROVIDED 1/ SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION OCCURS NEAR THE WARM FRONT AND 2/ SEMI-DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHERE A LINEAR MODE SHOULD BE MORE DOMINANT. SOMEWHAT HIGHER PROBABILITIES/PERHAPS EVEN A CATEGORICAL MODERATE RISK MIGHT BE WARRANTED IN SUBSEQUENT CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 If my pay check does not come tomorrow and I can't get down there I am going to absolutely flip. Anyways time for sleep...been sleeping 1-3 hours a night since last Thursday and need some rest for Friday...would probably leave CT around 6 AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 If my pay check does not come tomorrow and I can't get down there I am going to absolutely flip. Anyways time for sleep...been sleeping 1-3 hours a night since last Thursday and need some rest for Friday...would probably leave CT around 6 AM. Thats like a 8 hr drive... but okay... dunno why you would come down here to chase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Thats like a 8 hr drive... but okay... dunno why you would come down here to chase We'd be going to around to extreme northern MD or perhaps southern PA...that's more like a 4-5 hours drive. My friend takes two weeks off from work the final week of May and first week of June so we can chase around the area...next week looks meh around here for severe wx so we may as well travel a bit. If there wasn't a threat for tornadoes idk if we would go or not. Also, this will be June 1st...we missed out last year..that is NOT happening again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 We'd be going to around to extreme northern MD or perhaps southern PA...that's more like a 4-5 hours drive. My friend takes two weeks off from work the final week of May and first week of June so we can chase around the area...next week looks meh around here for severe wx so we may as well travel a bit. If there wasn't a threat for tornadoes idk if we would go or not. Also, this will be June 1st...we missed out last year..that is NOT happening again. Chasing around here sucks. All there is, is traffic, lights, get stuck behind a school bus if between 230-330. We had a hard enough chase Tuesday but, we succeeded thankfully and got close to a possible tornado touchdown around Carlisle, pa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Thanks Wiz for the detailed write up a few pages back. I'm loving the northern MD talk, it's got me all giddy Now if only I could read a skew t/hodograph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 From LWX early morning discussion WARM FRONT WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL PLACE THE CWA IN A WARM SECTOR...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING AOA 80F AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. DESPITE CLOUD COVER TO START THE DAY...HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CAPES OF 1K J/KG TO PERHAPS LOCALLY 2K J/KG ACROSS THE CWA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. NAM REMAINS FASTER THAN THE GFS...AND IS PREFERRED...ALTHOUGH THE TEMPORAL GAP IS CLOSING. POPS LEAN MORE TOWARD A NAM/SREFS BLEND. NAM TIMING BRINGS STRONGEST FORCING/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING COINCIDING WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY. THIS WOULD ALSO OCCUR IN TANDEM WITH STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS THAT WOULD TEND TO INCREASE SHEAR. RESULT MAY BE AN ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE...FAVORING BOTH LINEAR AND SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS IF THE ABOVE FACTORS COME TOGETHER. SPC CONTINUES SLIGHT RISK FOR DAY 2 ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. IN ADDITION TO SEVERE WEATHER...PRECIPITABLE WATERS ABOVE 1.5 INCHES SUGGEST A HEAVY RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING RISK ACROSS THE CWA. HEAVY RAINFALL WORDING CONTINUES IN THE GRIDS/PRODUCTS. BRUNT OF THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING. MODELS SHOW DEWPOINTS /AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES/ STARTING TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN ON NORTHWEST WINDS. -- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Some values I pulled off the 06z NAM (forgive me for not listing all that Wiz mentioned in his post, I'm learning ) Values from 18z Friday sfc dews: 65-70 925 dews: ~15C 850 dews: ~20C PWATS: 1.5 sfc temps: ~80 north with near 90 south 925 temps: ~+20C 850 temps: ~+20C Helicity 0-3km: 100-150 (from PA line to VA line) 0-1km: 100-200 (200 is over the NE MD area) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 OMG @ BWI 0z, I'd be so happy if that came about in a farm field somewhere. Eskimo Joe I think would rather have a hostage situation. I will always take a natural hazard over a human hazard. It's easier to manage, believe me. Check the sounding for Lancaster, PA (KLNS) on the 00z NAM at 48 hrs on Earl's site... Southern PA and Northern MD look pretty nice... SWODY2 gets tweaked during the afternoon, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Morning cap or bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Thanks Wiz for the detailed write up a few pages back. I'm loving the northern MD talk, it's got me all giddy Now if only I could read a skew t/hodograph http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x11exIwS2bo EDIT: I fail...can't post a YouTube video to save my life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x11exIwS2bo We've tried, she's hopeless... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 We've tried, she's hopeless... I know I know - its all too complicated. I'll let Yoda copy/paste the important stuff and go from there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Sunshine baby, gotta get that sunshine tomorrow or this will be one big bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 I've gotta say, that radarscope upgrade will make tracking this outbreak a lot more fun, especially if northern MD is the place to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 For anyone looking for some more background info on what parameters to pay attention to (again, thanks Wiz for your post!) Tombo in the Phili region made an excellent post last night http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/34730-se-pamt-holly-severe-threats/page__st__105 post #140 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Morning cap or bust Enjoy your wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 One thing you gotta give to the MA is the ability to freak out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Sunshine baby, gotta get that sunshine tomorrow or this will be one big bust. true..i think we all know that cloud cover will limit instability..but let's try to focus on the likelihood of seeing significant destabilization, which in my opinion is quite high (and I think most guidance would agree)...if I was in PHL or ABE, I'd might be concerned about being on the wrong side of the warm front... a couple things that come to mind just from a quick look at guidance: a) strength of the cap tomorrow morning...without a cap you'll see a very polluted warm sector with a lot multi-cellular clusters location of the warm front...best chance of anyone seeing a tornado will be to the south of that warm front (look at 0-1 / 0-3 SRH)...hard to really put a location on it right now, timing is a big factor, but an initial guess would be northern MD and south central PA. c) how much heating do we see tomorrow...if you look at the instability maps from the NAM you noticed the greatest instability/lower LCLs right around DC from 18z to 0z, while further south near RIC they see much more in the way of heating, and LCLs jump into the 1500m to 2000m range...i've seen this before where you have can too much heating --> leading to elevated LCLs during peak heating in general, a pretty awesome setup for the time of year and the amount of instability we will have (hopefully) to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Enjoy your wind Wind is wind, rotating or not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Some Sim Radars - this is for 00z Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Some Sim Radars - this is for 00z Saturday That actually looks like a run of the mill squall line, not too bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 That actually looks like a run of the mill squall line, not too bad. yeah, not as impressive as I was hoping for. skewt/hodo from 12z NAM for BWI at 21z Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Wind is wind, rotating or not Rotating wind ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 It appears that 500mb heights don't really begin to fall until after 15z...so that's a good thing to not have too much morning convective contamination. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Of course sim radar is not going to pick up on cells. It's going to be a bad day tomorrow no matter what. Tuesday was not that great a set up and there was a bunch of storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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