OSUmetstud Posted June 2, 2012 Share Posted June 2, 2012 Or, you could look back a year ago, when SPC had a 5% tor risk out, and NWS belatedly issued a tornado warning for the EF3 that tore through Springfield, MA, and everybody was on their case. I don't know if overforecasting is better, but it's certainly not worse. the parameters for that event were better than this one....it was absolutely classic....and the spc shockingly maintained a slight risk that day...didn't understand it at all. Not to mention the issues with the warning at BOX and the ENX radar... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted June 2, 2012 Share Posted June 2, 2012 To sit back and call an SPC bust is ridiculous. I was less than enthused with some of the local office warnings, however. Yes, I noticed that. There were several tornado warnings issued for broad and extremely weak couplets and in several instances I couldn't really find a couplet, or it didn't last very long. I guess they took the environmental conditions and population into effect and were being cautious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 2, 2012 Share Posted June 2, 2012 There seem to be alot of cases where storm mode isn't quite clear or it's not quite clear what will happen after storm initiation. Unless you're dealing with a situation where you virtually have a line of supercells where just about every supercell seems to produce it can be very hard to gauge the situation. How they also determine it probably also depends on past setups and such...don't they take alot of that into account or something? I know in theory why but it's not like it's actually well defined or transparent or anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted June 2, 2012 Share Posted June 2, 2012 I think in general...the SPC forecasting skill drops the further north and east you go. Most of our studies came come Oklahoma...so this kinda makes sense. Of course, the best northeast and mid-atlantic tornado outbreaks do kinda mimic plains ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 2, 2012 Share Posted June 2, 2012 Not much more can be said about the event and how it unfolded, I agree with Tony on this with respect to how things looked right before the first line fired. Also I wouldn't be shocked if there weren't more tornadoes added to the tally in the next couple of days, once the storm surveys occur. I noticed a couple of times where they had severe warnings at times when there was really good rotation. Of course I did also see a few tornado warnings where I would personally question what they were pulling the trigger on. Beyond that I think the outlook upgrade was more than justified especially considering the locations/time of day and initial environment before the first line fired. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 2, 2012 Share Posted June 2, 2012 A pretty good video filmed from a restaurant in Hampton, you can see several power flashes in the video Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 2, 2012 Share Posted June 2, 2012 Since I'm sure this is at least slightly directed at me.. my reasoning for "downplaying" was not all climo. I spend a lot of time researching patterns to learn how to better forecast. I know what big DC tornado patterns are.. this one was close, but it had issues as far as I was concerned all along. I never bash the NWS or SPC and I did not here either. However, as someone who will never attempt to be an SPC forecaster or something I can of course speak a little more freely than perhaps you or tornadotony. I will say again this ended up a little more than I expected and perhaps because I thought the WF would end up further north of what it did. Not to mention I probably didnt look at it as heavily as I would have if I was not out in the Plains. To me, not all the ingredients were there for this to be a dangerous outbreak. I suppose if we had more sun we would have had more tornadoes, but I can't recall any outbreak other than a landfalling tropical cyclone that had such meager mid level lapse rates. You need some more ML CAPE to compensate for that I think. Without those lapse rates, you aren't going to get the good vertical stretching for violent updrafts sustaining supercells. The end result would be a lot more brief spin ups like we saw today...but probably a few more if CAPEs were a bit higher. On the other hand, I did think we would see a few more reports than we did. All in all, a good learning experience for severe wx enthusiasts on the East Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 2, 2012 Share Posted June 2, 2012 I had mentioned last night how a tree had fallen into a house in Towson after a strong thunderstorm went through there (and eventually created the possible tornado that touched down in Bel Air) Anyways, here is a picture I found from Towson Patch.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted June 2, 2012 Share Posted June 2, 2012 Fantastic analysis and discussion in this thread guys. Even though things didn't quite materialize as everyone expected, it has been a good case study for all levels of experience...A lot of good met 101 material in here, very helpful for me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted June 2, 2012 Share Posted June 2, 2012 Does anyone know the number of cells that were warned yesterday in LWX? I ask only because although there were numerous warnings, isn't that only because individual cells get new warnings from jurisdiction to jurisdiction? As far as some of the criticism, maybe I'm misinterpreting it, but I thought national and local offices did well. I talked to a BGE damage assessment guy this morning and he told me there are two main areas they are dealing with. The first is obviously the Falston area, and then the second was the cell that went through upper MoCo and HoCo (Elkridge). Although I'm not sure either area has confirmed a tornado, when all is said and done, even just two tornados here is pretty impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted June 2, 2012 Share Posted June 2, 2012 Were there any confirmed tornadoes in the DC/baltimore area? All the pictures I saw on TV looked like scud with no real signs of rotation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 2, 2012 Author Share Posted June 2, 2012 Were there any confirmed tornadoes in the DC/baltimore area? All the pictures I saw on TV looked like scud with no real signs of rotation. Damage survey team will have to check out that Bel Air/Fallston area I'm assuming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted June 2, 2012 Share Posted June 2, 2012 Channel 11 (WBAL) has their copter up in Bel Air now, and are showing the damage that smoke reported. Structural damage to some buildings, cars flipped, some debris wrapped around trees etc. That was one awesome Chase Ryan SmokeEater and I did and got nailed with a Tornado with video and some pictures. Bel Air Tornado 6-1-2012. Amazing timing seen 2 wall clouds up in York County Pa then drove down into Bel Air and got lucky there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted June 2, 2012 Share Posted June 2, 2012 I noticed VA and MD and DC have vastly superior live traffic webcam coverage compared to New England.. too bad they are generally looking at the roads and not the skies Yes it makes no sense to have the traffic cameras pointing down to the road. those dumb people operating them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 2, 2012 Author Share Posted June 2, 2012 Yes it makes no sense to have the traffic cameras pointing down to the road. those dumb people operating them. you troll! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted June 2, 2012 Share Posted June 2, 2012 A pretty good video filmed from a restaurant in Hampton, you can see several power flashes in the video That's just a few miles from me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted June 2, 2012 Share Posted June 2, 2012 This was an 8/10/ B+ as far as impact. It's just the bar was set very high. Torrential rain, awesome cloud structure, wind sometimes damaging, CG lightning, discrete cells and multiple lines, long lasting, flooding, funnels, a few tornadoes, high impact on traffic, air travel and metro with massive delays. It was a solid event if not rare or remarkable. If it was an overperformer it would have been more impressive but it wasn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted June 2, 2012 Share Posted June 2, 2012 Radar-estimated precip totals from the event..........looks like eastern Balt. county really got socked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted June 2, 2012 Share Posted June 2, 2012 Radar-estimated precip totals from the event..........looks like eastern Balt. county really got socked 4.5" from one of the CoCoRahs observers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 2, 2012 Share Posted June 2, 2012 1.56" for me out of all of the storms that came through Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted June 2, 2012 Share Posted June 2, 2012 Yes it makes no sense to have the traffic cameras pointing down to the road. those dumb people operating them. Seriously though, it would be fantastic to have that kind of coverage looking at the sky. I had a good time picking cameras in the path of the strongest storms and watching them roll through yesterday just to weenie out. With a thick enough network of cameras looking skyward I think a camera network would be useful for actual forecasters as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted June 2, 2012 Share Posted June 2, 2012 That's just a few miles from me. http://www.wavy.com/dpp/news/local_news/hampton/city-assesses-damage-after-tornado NWS: Tornado was EF1 with 98 mph windsBlackbeard festival to start at 2 p.m. Updated: Saturday, 02 Jun 2012, 11:43 AM EDT Published : Saturday, 02 Jun 2012, 7:43 AM EDT Rachel West HAMPTON, Va. (WAVY) - The National Weather Service has released more information on the tornado that moved through parts of Hampton Friday night, leaving damage in its wake. According to the NWS, the tornado began as a waterspout touchdown with power flashes on the Monitor Merrimac Memorial Bridge around 8:13 p.m. It then went over Chesapeake Avenue before moving through downtown Hampton and the Hampton Yacht Club. There, it went into the Chesapeake Bay. Robin McCormick, Hampton Communications Director, said the hardest hit neighborhoods include Merrimac Shores and Park Place. The downtown area of Hampton is also said to have extensive damage. WAVY News’ Art Kohn was in Hampton early Saturday morning and found large trees and power lines down in neighborhoods. At the Hampton Yacht Club, several boats were blown about. Photos: Aftermath of June 1 storms McCormick said the strong winds also blew out windows in the City. The NWS added windows were blown out and the roof was partially damaged at the yacht club, while Amory Seafood Building on Sunset Road experienced roof damage. “Police are urging people to stay away from those areas unless they live there,” McCormick said. According to McCormick, the National Weather Service said the tornado was first spotted in Portsmouth and traveled across the water to Hampton between Wythe and downtown. The tornado was then said to have skipped over Mercury Boulevard and moved toward Boxwood Street in the East Hampton area. Winds were around 85mph, McCormick added. The tornado was said to have been 0.3 miles in width and it's path covered about 3.5 miles. The NWS said it reached wind speeds of about 98 mph, classifying it as an EF1 on the Fujita scale. Map: Tornado's path through Hampton Many viewers have been asking about the Blackbeard festival. According to McCormick, organizers are cleaning up and it looks as though a canopy over the stage at Mill Point Park was blown off, but the stage itself was not damaged. "The Blackbeard festival will open at 2 p.m. with a full schedule, including fireworks," McCormick said. She added an old sewing machine was hooked up to a generator so tents could be repaired. Dolphin laundromat donated laundry service, plywood and sand to help get the festival ready. No one was seriously injured and only minor injuries were reported. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 2, 2012 Share Posted June 2, 2012 Edited down video from yesterday, don't rail me too hard, I sound like a complete moron in the video, lol. Funny, I fight fire, but a frigging storm makes me yell like a girl, lmfao. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0BaRVxOAG80&feature=plcp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted June 2, 2012 Share Posted June 2, 2012 you troll! Shhhhh Radar-estimated precip totals from the event..........looks like eastern Balt. county really got socked Hmm, I dont think we got 1.5" here, more like .75 or so 4.5" from one of the CoCoRahs observers. Holy Crap, thats impressive. Seriously though, it would be fantastic to have that kind of coverage looking at the sky. I had a good time picking cameras in the path of the strongest storms and watching them roll through yesterday just to weenie out. With a thick enough network of cameras looking skyward I think a camera network would be useful for actual forecasters as well. I guess that is why they have the Skywarn spotters around and everyone has a camera with video capability to shoot interesting wx events and post them to social media immediately. Twitter was on fire yesterday for me with pics and obs coming in non stop for 5 hours straight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 2, 2012 Share Posted June 2, 2012 PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 535 PM EDT SAT JUN 02 2012 EARLIER TODAY...THE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA SENT FIVE STORM SURVEY TEAMS ACROSS THE REGION TO DETERMINE IF YESTERDAY`S THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE WAS CAUSED BY TORNADOES. THE SURVEY TEAMS WENT TO: 1. DAMASCUS IN MONTGOMERY COUNTY. 2. ACCOKEEK IN PRINCE GEORGES COUNTY. 3. FT. MEADE AND BWI AIRPORT IN ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTY. 4. FALLSTON IN HARFORD COUNTY. 5. SIMPSONVILLE IN HOWARD COUNTY. 6. MT. AIRY IN CARROLL COUNTY. THE STORM SURVEY PROCESS WILL BE ONGOING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE LARGE NUMBER OF DAMAGE REPORTS THAT HAVE BEEN RECEIVED. WHILE SOME PRELIMINARY INFORMATION WILL BE AVAILABLE LATER THIS EVENING FROM THE SURVEYS...FINAL DETERMINATION OF THE TOTAL NUMBER OF TORNADOES WILL NOT BE COMPLETED UNTIL ADDITIONAL LOCATIONS ARE SURVEYED. AT THIS TIME...BASED ON CORROBORATING DAMAGE REPORTS WITH RADAR ANALYSIS...IT IS HYPOTHESIZED THAT BETWEEN 5 AND 10 TORNADOES OCCURRED YESTERDAY AROUND THE REGION. PLEASE CHECK LATER THIS EVENING FOR UPDATED PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS FROM THE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE DEALING WITH YESTERDAY`S STORMS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted June 2, 2012 Share Posted June 2, 2012 I'll be very curious in what they determine the Ft. Meade damage to be from, because from my view on my porch about that time, sure looked like some circulation in a cloud right over Ft Meade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tplbge Posted June 2, 2012 Share Posted June 2, 2012 Around what time yesterday, smokey? I'll be very curious in what they determine the Ft. Meade damage to be from, because from my view on my porch about that time, sure looked like some circulation in a cloud right over Ft Meade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted June 2, 2012 Share Posted June 2, 2012 PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 535 PM EDT SAT JUN 02 2012 EARLIER TODAY...THE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA SENT FIVE STORM SURVEY TEAMS ACROSS THE REGION TO DETERMINE IF YESTERDAY`S THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE WAS CAUSED BY TORNADOES. THE SURVEY TEAMS WENT TO: 1. DAMASCUS IN MONTGOMERY COUNTY. 2. ACCOKEEK IN PRINCE GEORGES COUNTY. 3. FT. MEADE AND BWI AIRPORT IN ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTY. 4. FALLSTON IN HARFORD COUNTY. 5. SIMPSONVILLE IN HOWARD COUNTY. 6. MT. AIRY IN CARROLL COUNTY. THE STORM SURVEY PROCESS WILL BE ONGOING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE LARGE NUMBER OF DAMAGE REPORTS THAT HAVE BEEN RECEIVED. WHILE SOME PRELIMINARY INFORMATION WILL BE AVAILABLE LATER THIS EVENING FROM THE SURVEYS...FINAL DETERMINATION OF THE TOTAL NUMBER OF TORNADOES WILL NOT BE COMPLETED UNTIL ADDITIONAL LOCATIONS ARE SURVEYED. AT THIS TIME...BASED ON CORROBORATING DAMAGE REPORTS WITH RADAR ANALYSIS...IT IS HYPOTHESIZED THAT BETWEEN 5 AND 10 TORNADOES OCCURRED YESTERDAY AROUND THE REGION. PLEASE CHECK LATER THIS EVENING FOR UPDATED PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS FROM THE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE DEALING WITH YESTERDAY`S STORMS. I was gonna starngle the NWS if they didn't confirm a Tornado with the Damascus cell. It was warned for like 3 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted June 3, 2012 Share Posted June 3, 2012 Around what time yesterday, smokey? About 6pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 3, 2012 Share Posted June 3, 2012 PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 620 PM EDT SAT JUN 02 2012 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0554 PM TORNADO PLEASANT HILLS 39.48N 76.39W 06/01/2012 HARFORD MD NWS STORM SURVEY *** 2 INJ *** RATED EF-1. PATH LENGTH 1.25 MILES AND WIDTH 0.25 MILES. && EVENT NUMBER LWX1200267 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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