Amped Posted June 2, 2012 Share Posted June 2, 2012 Sort of a meh finish for DC it's looking like. The Line might impress. It wasn't bad here. LWX has just put out a warning for Carrol and NRN Montgomery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted June 2, 2012 Share Posted June 2, 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... EASTERN FREDERICK COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND... NORTHERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN CENTRAL MARYLAND... CARROLL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND... WESTERN BALTIMORE COUNTY IN NORTHERN MARYLAND... NORTHWESTERN HOWARD COUNTY IN CENTRAL MARYLAND... * UNTIL 930 PM EDT * AT 854 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF MOUNT AIRY...OR 11 MILES NORTH OF DAMASCUS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... ELDERSBURG... WESTMINSTER... GAMBER... HAMPSTEAD... MANCHESTER... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 2, 2012 Share Posted June 2, 2012 Another tornado warning out for Mt Airy area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted June 2, 2012 Share Posted June 2, 2012 The gustnado talk w/r/t what SE encountered borders on asinine given the radar signature. Also, I love the doubting of the BWI report when it is an airport observer report with corroborating damage. I have heard some people (incorrectly) use gustnado as a synonym for spinup/QLCS tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted June 2, 2012 Share Posted June 2, 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN FREDERICK COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND... NORTHWESTERN CARROLL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND... Also parts of Baltimore county......including MBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted June 2, 2012 Share Posted June 2, 2012 Also parts of Baltimore county......including MBY Should be more for NW Balto county, With the projected track it will pass quite a distance away from C'ville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted June 2, 2012 Share Posted June 2, 2012 Should be more for NW Balto county, With the projected track it will pass quite a distance away from C'ville. I'm a little west but I agree........I'm barely on the edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted June 2, 2012 Share Posted June 2, 2012 Video of the squall line moving through Roanoke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 2, 2012 Share Posted June 2, 2012 Boy that VA storm tightened again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted June 2, 2012 Share Posted June 2, 2012 Sort of a meh finish for DC it's looking like. edit: epic split What? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 2, 2012 Share Posted June 2, 2012 Video of the squall line moving through Roanoke. Great video. Excellent choice in siting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 2, 2012 Share Posted June 2, 2012 Agree 100% No one in the MA knows what a tornado looks like. I mean I'll give them the benefit of the doubt but ive seen scud, updraft bases etc all as 'possible tornadoes' today. Meanwhile looks like marks idea of SE was good and the mod risk was either poorly placed or unneeded. But it's the 95 corridor so gotta overwarn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted June 2, 2012 Share Posted June 2, 2012 I think this line is back building. Just 10 min ago it looked like it was going to clear my area to rain free. It is pouring again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted June 2, 2012 Share Posted June 2, 2012 No one in the MA knows what a tornado looks like. I mean I'll give them the benefit of the doubt but ive seen scud, updraft bases etc all as 'possible tornadoes' today. Meanwhile looks like marks idea of SE was good and the mod risk was either poorly placed or unneeded. But it's the 95 corridor so gotta overwarn. Even Bob Ryan today was retweeted pictures that were obviously scud acting as if they were funnels. Tragic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted June 2, 2012 Share Posted June 2, 2012 No one in the MA knows what a tornado looks like. I mean I'll give them the benefit of the doubt but ive seen scud, updraft bases etc all as 'possible tornadoes' today. Meanwhile looks like marks idea of SE was good and the mod risk was either poorly placed or unneeded. But it's the 95 corridor so gotta overwarn. Luckily they don't know what Moderate risk means either. That being said, there probably will be more brief spinups of EF0s and EF1s confirmed. The 2009 Ijamsville Tornado wasn't confirmed until the next day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 2, 2012 Author Share Posted June 2, 2012 Luckily they don't know what Moderate risk means either. That being said, there probably will be more brief spinups of EF0s and EF1s confirmed. The 2009 Ijamsville Tornado wasn't confirmed until the next day. Most times they are not confirmed until the following day when an NWS survey team can get out. In LWX's area I've only seen a few times in my lifetime where the survey team confirms a tornado on the same day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoVaWx Posted June 2, 2012 Share Posted June 2, 2012 A big meh event here for sure, just another rainy day. Had no wind or anything terribly heavy. The unexpected mcs storms that came through a few days ago were much more impressive with all the wind and the shelf cloud... At least around here. None of the 2-3 warnings we had today seemed justified, just moderate rain. Way overhyped event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted June 2, 2012 Share Posted June 2, 2012 i swear there is a protective barrier around dover, de Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 2, 2012 Share Posted June 2, 2012 A big meh event here for sure, just another rainy day. Had no wind or anything terribly heavy. The unexpected mcs storms that came through a few days ago were much more impressive with all the wind and the shelf cloud... At least around here. None of the 2-3 warnings we had today seemed justified, just moderate rain. Way overhyped event. Your username serves you well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted June 2, 2012 Share Posted June 2, 2012 Hit the 2" mark. The neighborhood just S of me has two stations approaching 3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted June 2, 2012 Share Posted June 2, 2012 Thinking about the MDT Risk, which in my opinion wasn't quite needed, more so a High-End SLGT Risk (10% Tornado Probs.) Mainly because of the lack of CAPE, although there were some Significant Helicities in place, along with Shear... Anyway, I thought you needed a Sig. SVR Hatched area along with a 15% Tornado Prob. to get a MDT Risk? Instead of just a 15% Tornad Probabilty with No hatched area (1630Z Outlook didn't have hatched area, 2000Z had hatched area) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted June 2, 2012 Share Posted June 2, 2012 Hit the 2" mark. The neighborhood just S of me has two stations approaching 3". My fairly unscientific measuring process (popping a tape measure into a cynlindrical glass that's been out all day) shows me at just a shade under 2.5". Not a ton, but quite a hefty amount, and certainly starts June off on the right foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 2, 2012 Author Share Posted June 2, 2012 Thinking about the MDT Risk, which in my opinion wasn't quite needed, more so a High-End SLGT Risk (10% Tornado Probs.) Mainly because of the lack of CAPE, although there were some Significant Helicities in place, along with Shear... Anyway, I thought you needed a Sig. SVR Hatched area along with a 15% Tornado Prob. to get a MDT Risk? Instead of just a 15% Tornad Probabilty with No hatched area (1630Z Outlook, 2000Z had hatched area) http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/SPC_probotlk_info.html Nope - 15% will do it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted June 2, 2012 Share Posted June 2, 2012 I noticed VA and MD and DC have vastly superior live traffic webcam coverage compared to New England.. too bad they are generally looking at the roads and not the skies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted June 2, 2012 Share Posted June 2, 2012 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/SPC_probotlk_info.html Nope - 15% will do it! Duh... I should've know. esp. with Tornadoes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 2, 2012 Share Posted June 2, 2012 Even Bob Ryan today was retweeted pictures that were obviously scud acting as if they were funnels. Tragic. By DC area standards it was still a solid event I just don't know where they got the 10-15% stuff. I suppose 10% might have at least been passable. You can only take so much from parameters etc. It was pretty apparent early that even with the WF draped across the area anything near there would be brief and transient. I will say there was more discrete activity than I might have expected. It just might be about impossible to get a sizable tornado outbreak there numberswisw other than tropical. The mass hysteria needs to stop one way or another. At some point no one will take the met community seriously. Part of the problem is that the day of or the day prior is not when people will learn at their best. Throwing around terms and ideas people don't understand from SPC etc doesnt do much good.. Neither does bowing completely to their forecast. They are by far the best in the biz but I truly believe they don't do as well with severe events east of the Apps. Local knowledge is key.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2010 extreme Posted June 2, 2012 Share Posted June 2, 2012 Measured three full inches with the whole event. Also had some crazy wind that between 2:45 -3:00 that knocked out power for awhile. Last time a storm did that was 7/4/06. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 2, 2012 Share Posted June 2, 2012 By DC area standards it was still a solid event I just don't know where they got the 10-15% stuff. I suppose 10% might have at least been passable. You can only take so much from parameters etc. It was pretty apparent early that even with the WF draped across the area anything near there would be brief and transient. I will say there was more discrete activity than I might have expected. It just might be about impossible to get a sizable tornado outbreak there numberswisw other than tropical. The mass hysteria needs to stop one way or another. At some point no one will take the met community seriously. Part of the problem is that the day of or the day prior is not when people will learn at their best. Throwing around terms and ideas people don't understand from SPC etc doesnt do much good.. Neither does bowing completely to their forecast. They are by far the best in the biz but I truly believe they don't do as well with severe events east of the Apps. Local knowledge is key.. I'm gonna have to disagree with you on this particular case. SPC's forecasts were completely warranted today (and those who know me know that I'm no SPC junkie). In fact, the verified instability/shear combination observed on the 17z sounding would normally be enough for a rather sizable tornado event. IMO, what likely happened today was that the updrafts got a little moisture loaded, which can counteract upward vertical motion, which would in turn reduce stretching of vorticity and subsequent likelihood of tornadogenesis. Obviously some storms still succeeded (and a couple did so in pretty significant fashion), but not as many as even I would have expected. Truth be told, we don't have a good handle on how to forecast when this sort of thing becomes an issue. Yeah, we know it tends to occur in environments that are more saturated through a column. But because the atmosphere is a continuum, we don't have specific PWAT values or anything of that sort really to diagnose the "breakpoint," if you will, of when this either is or isn't a problem. There are several events in the past that I can think of (the Suffolk tornado in 2008 being of them) with similar environments to today that were a good bit more prolific in verification than today's event will likely be. As a forecaster, today towed a fine line. It had serious potential, and for that, SPC forecasted what they did. Nobody should blame them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted June 2, 2012 Share Posted June 2, 2012 I'm gonna have to disagree with you on this particular case. SPC's forecasts were completely warranted today (and those who know me know that I'm no SPC junkie). In fact, the verified instability/shear combination observed on the 17z sounding would normally be enough for a rather sizable tornado event. IMO, what likely happened today was that the updrafts got a little moisture loaded, which can counteract upward vertical motion, which would in turn reduce stretching of vorticity and subsequent likelihood of tornadogenesis. Obviously some storms still succeeded (and a couple did so in pretty significant fashion), but not as many as even I would have expected. Truth be told, we don't have a good handle on how to forecast when this sort of thing becomes an issue. Yeah, we know it tends to occur in environments that are more saturated through a column. But because the atmosphere is a continuum, we don't have specific PWAT values or anything of that sort really to diagnose the "breakpoint," if you will, of when this either is or isn't a problem. There are several events in the past that I can think of (the Suffolk tornado in 2008 being of them) with similar environments to today that were a good bit more prolific in verification than today's event will likely be. As a forecaster, today towed a fine line. It had serious potential, and for that, SPC forecasted what they did. Nobody should blame them. So what you're saying is the parameters were there, but the parameters weren't there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 2, 2012 Share Posted June 2, 2012 I'm gonna have to disagree with you on this particular case. SPC's forecasts were completely warranted today (and those who know me know that I'm no SPC junkie). In fact, the verified instability/shear combination observed on the 17z sounding would normally be enough for a rather sizable tornado event. IMO, what likely happened today was that the updrafts got a little moisture loaded, which can counteract upward vertical motion, which would in turn reduce stretching of vorticity and subsequent likelihood of tornadogenesis. Obviously some storms still succeeded (and a couple did so in pretty significant fashion), but not as many as even I would have expected. Truth be told, we don't have a good handle on how to forecast when this sort of thing becomes an issue. Yeah, we know it tends to occur in environments that are more saturated through a column. But because the atmosphere is a continuum, we don't have specific PWAT values or anything of that sort really to diagnose the "breakpoint," if you will, of when this either is or isn't a problem. There are several events in the past that I can think of (the Suffolk tornado in 2008 being of them) with similar environments to today that were a good bit more prolific in verification than today's event will likely be. As a forecaster, today towed a fine line. It had serious potential, and for that, SPC forecasted what they did. Nobody should blame them. Well it's good to hear your opinion even if I don't agree fully. Though in the end I'd understand them being cautious. That however does not deal with the larger issue. I guess it's good to overwarn millions of people to save potentially a handful of lives but I just don't see it as a great way to get the point across. Though honestly even after 2011 I think that tornado concerns almost always verge on hysteria. Even in a high risk your odds of getting hurt or killed are extremely low. If there was better overall preparedness etc it would not have to be like it is. I think it does the community a disservice... and from someone who has probably more social science knowledge than weather knowledge I don't think I'm just being a troll by saying these things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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