Fozz Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Awesome write up, wiz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Awesome write up, wiz. Thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 I'm giving this threat a solid chance just because Mark didn't start the thread. You're a dick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 31, 2012 Author Share Posted May 31, 2012 You're a dick Do YOU have any thoughts for back home here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 You're a dick Hey, you get to see 8 tornadoes. Why can't we have some fun while your out of town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Interesting to watch a possibly considerable threat shaping up in this region. Can't help but have April 28, 2002 pop into my head when looking at this thread. That was a fascinating event. Highly unlikely we will see such an event occur Friday in that area, yet alone in my lifetime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chase Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 I was once the storms/reports came in from W VA into the Luray area. I had to use my geography skills and mapping techniques I was learning cause I work at a school and we get out at 3PM... we had to hold after getting a few buses out -- I got to make the decision Craziest day I can remember. In Luray, we stayed in some sort of watch for almost 24 hours. We had severe storms the night before as well. I lost power first, just after 2pm. Trees down everywhere from a microburst. Then it rolled toward you all. The rest is history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Check the sounding for Lancaster, PA (KLNS) on the 00z NAM at 48 hrs on Earl's site... Southern PA and Northern MD look pretty nice... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Check the sounding for Lancaster, PA (KLNS) on the 00z NAM at 48 hrs on Earl's site... Southern PA and Northern MD look pretty nice... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 That's 45 hrs, btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 That's 45 hrs, btw. Oh yeah, just realized that. 48hr looks even scarier. http://beta.wxcaster.com/cgi-bin/parse_skewt_trace1.cgi?model=NAM&fcsthr=048&STATIONID=KLNS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 That is not only one sick backed llvl flow but incredible shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Water Loading... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 The La Plata tornado is probably not a great analog.. that was more of a classic low amplitude trough. This one fits pretty well into a historical analog overall that produces severe weather and/or tornadoes in the area but these closed lows that have been closed a while don't always (and perhaps more often than not) live up to their tornadic potential. It looks a bit messy to me for a big "outbreak" (as if those happen in the mid-atlantic anyway). I do think there is probably a fairly high end wind threat either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Mark said he has not looked that close and he is having trouble posting from his phone. And he doesn't want to get out of bed.. so no news from him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 If this was more of an open wave the tornado threat would be more widespread I think, however, it will likely be confined to a smaller area but the area in the favorable potential should really watch out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 The La Plata tornado is probably not a great analog.. that was more of a classic low amplitude trough. This one fits pretty well into a historical analog overall that produces severe weather and/or tornadoes in the area but these closed lows that have been closed a while don't always (and perhaps more often than not) live up to their tornadic potential. It looks a bit messy to me for a big "outbreak" (as if those happen in the mid-atlantic anyway). I do think there is probably a fairly high end wind threat either way. Aha! So no meh from you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Aha! So no meh from you! There might be some more similarities to the college park event in 2001... which was of course rather hefty. Tho that was an open wave early in the day before it closed off and it did not evolve the same way. Right now to me it looks like there will be a timing issue and that the shear may be too strong to recover for a significant tornado threat given potential activity early. It is probably the most interesting threat for the area in a long while.. at least since April last yr. If you can get a vort to rotate around the low perfectly and align with the warm front you might be getting somewhere with a localized tornado threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 GFS sounding for a point in MD...not too bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 00z NAM 21z FRI at KIAD -- http://beta.wxcaster...&STATIONID=KIAD 21z at DCA -- http://beta.wxcaster...&STATIONID=KDCA 21z at BWI -- http://beta.wxcaster...&STATIONID=KBWI at DCA 00z SAT -- http://beta.wxcaster...&STATIONID=KDCA at BWI 00z SAT -- http://beta.wxcaster.com/cgi-bin/parse_skewt_trace1.cgi?model=NAM&fcsthr=048&STATIONID=KBWI Pretty impressive numbers at Frederick... http://beta.wxcaster.com/cgi-bin/parse_skewt_trace1.cgi?model=NAM&fcsthr=045&STATIONID=KFDK SUP: 85.5% SRH 0-3km: 315 & 1km: 145 0-6km shear: 44.5 kts I think I hear thunder! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 So... mod risk at for morning Day 2? I say no... but wording for potential upgrade if things become clearer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 While the NAM was very impressive the GFS was not as robust, although the GFS is still quite nice. Unless the Euro is as robust as the NAM I don't see the trigger being pulled for a moderate risk tonight. We could see 30% hatched possibly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 So... mod risk at for morning Day 2? I say no... but wording for potential upgrade if things become clearer doubtful.. the threat up north looked better and did not get it till day of Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 mid-level lapse rates and lack of morning capping will be probably be the most glaring negative factors...the positive factors were already mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 mid-level lapse rates and lack of morning capping will be probably be the most glaring negative factors...the positive factors were already mentioned. mlvl lapse rates seem more than adequate to me...on the order of 6.5 C/KM...sure it's not EML great but that's decent enough I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 mlvl lapse rates seem more than adequate to me...on the order of 6.5 C/KM...sure it's not EML great but that's decent enough I think. negative factors for a big outbreak...I'm already of the mind set that there will be some severe weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 negative factors for a big outbreak...I'm already of the mind set that there will be some severe weather. I think the degree of lift that will be in place along with the potential for moderate instability along with rich BL dewpoints could compensate some. I guess right now the question is what everyone's definition of a major outbreak is I think this could be a rather potent event...I could see a moderate risk verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Impressive! 0z NAM for MTN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Thats basically right by KBWI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 The GFS isn't nearly as impressive, especially with instability so this will probably prevent any upgrade to mod. risk when the new day 2 comes out shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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