snowfan Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 The new version of radar scope is sweet....will come in handy on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Does anybody have an install file for the old GR Level III program? URL got moved, scroll down to the downloads section. http://grlevelx.com/grlevel3_1/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 URL got moved, scroll down to the downloads section. http://grlevelx.com/grlevel3_1/ Thanks. I'm putting in our EOC and want to get everything set up tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Wow...I'm fairly impressed with the potential for a rather large severe wx outbreak on Friday across this region. This is a very impressive setup for June, I mentioned this in the SNE thread a few days ago but this is something more typical of fall. All big 3 models (NAM/GFS/Euro) drive a deepening sfc low to the west of the region, although the models differ on the degree of strengthening. The GFS is by far the most impressive as it deepens the sfc low from ~1000mb to 995mb between 12z Friday and 0z Saturday. When determining how far northward the warm front gets (and obviously this will be huge) this will really depend on the degree of sfc low strengthening...the quicker and more rapidly the sfc low deepens the further north the warm front will end up. South of the warm front an increasing southerly flow is really going to pump up the llvl moisture, this can be seen by looking at the sfc dewpoints, 925/850mb dewpoints, as well as the increase in PWATS which is just under 2''...QUITE impressive for June 1st! llvl warmth will also increase with +20C 925mb temps and +15C 850mb temps! With the trough approaching and becoming negatively tilted along with deepening sfc low shear is going to increase throughout the day and models are forecasting some hefty shear values. The NAM is forecasting anywhere from 35-50 knots of 0-6km shear (even increasing to near 60 knots late in the day on Friday). in the vicinity of the warm front 0-3km helicity values should run anywhere from 150-300 m2s2 with 0-1km helicity values running anywhere from 100-150 m2s2 (perhaps a tad more). The region will also be in the right entrance region of a pretty potent 80-90 ULJ! Forecast soundings also indicating a pretty steep lapse rates environment with mlvl lapse rates in the 6.5 C/KM to 7.5 C/KM...some sounds have like a pseudo-EML look to them. The presence of a fairly steep lapse rate environment along with potential for sfc temps to get into the 80's along with sfc dews well into the 60's and a very moisture rich llvl airmass means the potential for at least moderate instability seems possible. The combination of potentially moderate instability along with very strong shear and strong lift thanks to a negatively tilted trough and RFQ of the ULJ is a major eye opener for the potential of a major severe weather outbreak. Damaging winds, large hail, and some tornadoes are all possible given the potential environment. Given wind vectors and wind alignment I would think that the prime mode will be supercells; especially with any pre-frontal trough that develops. There also could be a squall line that develops right along the cold front which could lead to multiple rounds of severe weather. The greatest threat for major severe should be right around where the warm front sets up...this is where the instability/highest shear/helicity will be located and where lift will be further enhanced thanks to RFQ of the approaching ULJ. Obviously none of this is set in stone but what we are seeing right now is pretty eye opening. If everything continues to line up nicely or certain parameters increase I certainly see a moderate risk eventually and potentially a high end moderate risk. As for seeing a moderate risk with the day 2 at 6z tonight I don't think that will happen unless 0z guidance really beefs things up...no need to really go moderate this early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 The new version of radar scope is sweet....will come in handy on Friday. Agreed. I haven't had time to update my apps and somebody mentioned it on here yesterday. The SuperRes mode is much much clearer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 31, 2012 Author Share Posted May 31, 2012 Excellent write-up by Paul (wiz). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Excellent write-up by Paul (wiz). Agreed. Whiz...do you see a particular area of the 30% risk that have the best shot for severe weather at this point? DC and south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 31, 2012 Author Share Posted May 31, 2012 Agreed. Whiz...do you see a particular area of the 30% risk that have the best shot for severe weather at this point? DC and south? Seems like a decent number of folks are suggesting the NoVA area up into central PA as a hot zone. More specifically like DC to NE MD. Obiviously purely based on models at this point in time. (sources: philly forum, wxrisk) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 I think you can include areas north of DC as well...probably right up to the MD border extending down into northern VA...right where the warm front ends up though will be the ultimate decider. I would bet though for a more northward warm front location than southward warm front location given how the sfc low will be deepening and this should allow the front to lift more north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Seems like a decent number of folks are suggesting the NoVA area up into central PA as a hot zone. More specifically like DC to NE MD. Obiviously purely based on models at this point in time. (sources: philly forum, wxrisk) I think you can include areas north of DC as well...probably right up to the MD border extending down into northern VA...right where the warm front ends up though will be the ultimate decider. I would bet though for a more northward warm front location than southward warm front location given how the sfc low will be deepening and this should allow the front to lift more north. Oh lovely... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 When I was looking at forecasted lapse rates from the 12z NAM and then looked at soundings I was quite impressed...mlvl lapse rates of 6.5-7 C/KM in this type of setup is pretty incredible...when you take this into account along with the RFQ of an 80-90 kt ULJ, 35-50 knots of vertical shear (even increasing to near 60 knots late in the day), and potential for moderate instability there will be a vigorous amount of lift. If these numbers pan out...holy crap...someone will get crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 It's wherever the warm front sets up that's going to have the good stuff, with everybody in the mix later in the day with whatever derecho/ summer squall line sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 I am not liking the large curved hodograph showing up already at 12z FRI on 00z NAM at KIAD... 1km SRH 200 m2/s2 already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Seems like a decent number of folks are suggesting the NoVA area up into central PA as a hot zone. More specifically like DC to NE MD. Obiviously purely based on models at this point in time. (sources: philly forum, wxrisk) I've seen the same so far as well and it looks like the worst will be near the warm front. The latest RNK area forecast discussion for Friday just doesn't seem like they aren't as excited as LWX right now. "EXPECT A NEARLY SOLID LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT." No mention of any specific threats yet. Still hoping for some decent storms down this way, though. Atleast it's something to watch after this long stretch of boring weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 I am not really liking the large curved hodograph showing up already at 12z FRI on 00z NAM at KIAD... 1km SRH 200 m2/s2 already Fixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 31, 2012 Author Share Posted May 31, 2012 It's wherever the warm front sets up that's going to have the good stuff, with everybody in the mix later in the day with whatever derecho/ summer squall line sets up. We'll also have to wait and see how much the discrete stuff overturns the atmosphere for the squall line after. DC is famous for having a few early cells ruin the later line - though June 4, 2008 was one of the notable exceptions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 31, 2012 Author Share Posted May 31, 2012 I am not liking the large curved hodograph showing up already at 12z FRI on 00z NAM at KIAD... 1km SRH 200 m2/s2 already Might that be tempered down later in the run though as the warm front moves farther north and away from IAD? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Might that be tempered down later in the run though as the warm front moves farther north and away from IAD? Could be... SUP potential at 15z is 70% and EHI near 2.5. Both 3km and 1km SRH 200-250... 40kts 0-6km shear, 1600-1700 SBCAPE and MLLR are 6.7C/KM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 31, 2012 Author Share Posted May 31, 2012 Could be... SUP potential at 15z is 70% and EHI near 2.5. Both 3km and 1km SRH 200-250... 40kts 0-6km shear, 1600-1700 SBCAPE and MLLR are 6.7C/KM Let me know when 18z and 21z are out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 We'll also have to wait and see how much the discrete stuff overturns the atmosphere for the squall line after. DC is famous for having a few early cells ruin the later line - though June 4, 2008 was one of the notable exceptions. I think the squall line potential will exist on the southward extent of the risk area...the higher helicity/directional shear is going to exist in the vicinity of the warm front while further south away from the front shear will be a bit more unidirectional. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Let me know when 18z and 21z are out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 I'd hit chase that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 00z NAM 21z FRI at KIAD -- http://beta.wxcaster...&STATIONID=KIAD 21z at DCA -- http://beta.wxcaster...&STATIONID=KDCA 21z at BWI -- http://beta.wxcaster...&STATIONID=KBWI at DCA 00z SAT -- http://beta.wxcaster...&STATIONID=KDCA at BWI 00z SAT -- http://beta.wxcaster.com/cgi-bin/parse_skewt_trace1.cgi?model=NAM&fcsthr=048&STATIONID=KBWI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Wow...0z NAM has beefed things up I think. Regarding the supercell/tornado potential I think that window will be about 4-5 hours, once that sfc low departs further north the helicity is going to weaken a tad and in response to the sfc low moving north the warm front will follow so this will slightly decrease the directional shear in the llvls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 31, 2012 Author Share Posted May 31, 2012 00z NAM 21z FRI at KIAD -- http://beta.wxcaster...&STATIONID=KIAD 21z at DCA -- http://beta.wxcaster...&STATIONID=KDCA 21z at BWI -- http://beta.wxcaster...&STATIONID=KBWI at DCA 00z SAT -- http://beta.wxcaster...&STATIONID=KDCA Look how the supercell percentages increase north (BWI compared to DCA and IAD). Seems my suspicion was correct. Still, we are talking about little shifts here and there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 If those numbers were to verify from the 0z NAM not only would we be looking at the threat for tornadoes early on but you'd have to think about the possibility of a strong tornado...those hodo's/instabiltiy progs are nuts. Those steep lapse rates will be awesome. Have to see what the LCL's are progged to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 21z SPC SREF...impressive for 48 HR's out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 OMG @ BWI 0z, I'd be so happy if that came about in a farm field somewhere. Eskimo Joe I think would rather have a hostage situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 This is pretty impressive for 48 HR's out as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 31, 2012 Author Share Posted May 31, 2012 This is pretty impressive for 48 HR's out as well *snip* Yeah that has been steadily increasing the past few runs of the SREF... Fringe for me on that map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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