yoda Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 MOD across the board in the new watch including DC/BWI/RIC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Increasing rotation on the storm heading into Leesburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 With the really intense low-level CAPE over a warm frontal zone like that, and strong low-level SRH, the trend for developing discrete cells in the warm sector moving into that environment has to set off a lot of alarms. I think a PDS would be justified along and within about 50mi of the sfc warm frontal reflection, where I think the distinct possibility exists for a few strong tornadoes. I'm not trying to downplay the tornado threat...just don't know if it rises to the PDS level. If we had this setup in the Plains or in our area, the PDS wording wouldn't have entered my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Good thing they got the FCX radar back up quickly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Rotation over Poolesville...and the rotation down in Amherst is quite strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Nice 3 degree jump in the last 20 minutes to 81.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Weak rotation in the new SVR Warned storm in South Central PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=0&frame=0&delay=15&scale=0.125&noclutter=0&ID=DCA&type=TV0&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=0.125¢erx=1200¢ery=1136&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 TOR warned storm in Amherst County now producing golf ball sized hail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 ...SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR WASHINGTON DC/BALTIMORE METROPOLITAN AREAS AND SURROUNDING REGION... A SERIES OF STRONG-TO-SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE WASHINGTON DC/BALTIMORE METROPOLITAN AREAS AND SURROUNDING REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES TO THE REGION IN TWO ROUNDS. THE FIRST ROUND OF ANTICIPATED SEVERE WEATHER HAS STARTED. SCATTERED STRONG-TO-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EAST FROM THE BLUE RIDGE AND MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE WASHINGTON/BALTIMORE REGION THROUGH 6 PM. THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY ARE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL...ISOLATED TORNADOES...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. THE SECOND ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE EVENING FROM THE WEST AS A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPS OVER CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON. THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL STRENGTHEN WHILE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE THE INTERSTATE 81 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 5 PM AND 7 PM...THEN ACROSS THE INTESTATE 95 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 6 AND 8 PM...BEFORE FINALLY REACHING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AROUND 9 PM. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THIS ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. ALTHOUGH ALL OF THE REGION HAS THE POSSIBILITY OF EXPERIENCING TORNADOES TODAY...THE MOST LIKELY TIME WILL BE FROM 6 TO 9 PM IN AN AREA ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR FROM FREDERICKSBURG VIRGINIA NORTH TO BALTIMORE MD THEN EAST TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. THIS AREA INCLUDES THE MAJOR METROPOLITAN AREAS OF WASHINGTON DC AND BALTIMORE MARYLAND. WHILE THESE ARE THE BEST APPROXIMATIONS FOR TIMING AT THIS MOMENT...RESIDENTS...BUSINESSES...AND VISITORS ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SEVERE WEATHER ANYTIME THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AND HAVE A SAFETY PLAN IN PLACE. KEEP IN MIND THAT EVEN THOUGH THE WEATHER MAY BE CALM AT TIMES DURING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TORNADO WATCHES...CONDITIONS CAN DETERIORATE RAPIDLY AND BECOME LIFE THREATENING. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE REGION UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING. PLEASE MONITOR THE WEATHER AND TUNE INTO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...ALONG WITH YOUR FAVORITE RADIO...TELEVISION...OR INTERNET WEATHER INFORMATION SOURCE FOR UPDATED INFORMATION. $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 The 17z or 18z LWX SPEC sounding would be nice.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Ouch ALTHOUGH ALL OF THE REGION HAS THE POSSIBILITY OF EXPERIENCING TORNADOES TODAY...THE MOST LIKELY TIME WILL BE FROM 6 TO 9 PM IN AN AREA ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR FROM FREDERICKSBURG VIRGINIA NORTH TO BALTIMORE MD THEN EAST TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. THIS AREA INCLUDES THE MAJOR METROPOLITAN AREAS OF WASHINGTON DC AND BALTIMORE MARYLAND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 The 17z or 18z LWX SPEC sounding would be nice.... I'm sure they'll be doing one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 I'm sure they'll be doing one. I know they are... just I don't rememeber how long it takes them to do it.. its 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 That cell in stafford is going to mean business here soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 The storm south of Dale City is gonna do some rippin and tearin --- I am here: http://tapatalk.com/map.php?vib1cf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
loshjott Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Ouch ALTHOUGH ALL OF THE REGION HAS THE POSSIBILITY OF EXPERIENCING TORNADOES TODAY...THE MOST LIKELY TIME WILL BE FROM 6 TO 9 PM IN AN AREA ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR FROM FREDERICKSBURG VIRGINIA NORTH TO BALTIMORE MD THEN EAST TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. THIS AREA INCLUDES THE MAJOR METROPOLITAN AREAS OF WASHINGTON DC AND BALTIMORE MARYLAND. Yep. I'll tell my son, sorry, no baseball practice for you tonight...in the slight chance the coach doesn't call it off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 18Z Update: Increasing threat for Tornadoes now indicated for Fort Eustis, Fort Belvoire, Norfolk, Quantico, Langley, Norfolk, Oceana, Newport, Andrews, and BWI. Now showing 56.5% for F1 Type Tornado, 45.7% for an F2, and 38.3% for an F3 possibility. In addition wind gusts across the entire area could be upwards of around 76mph, and Hail threat size has now increased to 2.33" potential. I have updated all my maps with new inputs http://smartwxmodel.net/update.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 TOR WARNING NELSON COUNTY VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Stafford cell has rotation and appears to be growing a hook... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 KIAD sounding for 17Z June 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 82/72 down here now... gross Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Tor signature on the TDWR map for the cell north of Germantown, MD. http://classic.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=DCA&type=TR0&showstorms=10&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000¢erx=400¢ery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 216 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN FREDERICK COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND... NORTHERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN CENTRAL MARYLAND... SOUTHWESTERN CARROLL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND... NORTHWESTERN HOWARD COUNTY IN CENTRAL MARYLAND... * UNTIL 245 PM EDT * AT 215 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GREEN VALLEY...OR 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF GERMANTOWN... MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... GREEN VALLEY... MOUNT AIRY... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 That cell in stafford is going to mean business here soon definite hook developing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Weak rotation in the new SVR Warned storm in South Central PA looks like Adams/Franklin County area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Impressive mid-level rotation on supercell riding MoGo/Frederick Co. line... tor warned now. Loudoun Co. supercell also exhibiting decent rotation... wouldn't be surprised to see a warning soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Nice hook echo near Dumfries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Winds picking up...thunder...and some bright flashes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 1, 2012 Author Share Posted June 1, 2012 definite hook developing. Looks really nice on GR Analyst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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