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June 1, 2012 - Severe Thunderstorms/Tornadoes Event


Kmlwx

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With the really intense low-level CAPE over a warm frontal zone like that, and strong low-level SRH, the trend for developing discrete cells in the warm sector moving into that environment has to set off a lot of alarms.  I think a PDS would be justified along and within about 50mi of the sfc warm frontal reflection, where I think the distinct possibility exists for a few strong tornadoes.

I'm not trying to downplay the tornado threat...just don't know if it rises to the PDS level. If we had this setup in the Plains or in our area, the PDS wording wouldn't have entered my mind.

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...SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR

WASHINGTON DC/BALTIMORE METROPOLITAN AREAS AND SURROUNDING REGION...

A SERIES OF STRONG-TO-SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE

WASHINGTON DC/BALTIMORE METROPOLITAN AREAS AND SURROUNDING REGION THIS

AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASED THREAT OF

DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES TO THE REGION

IN TWO ROUNDS.

THE FIRST ROUND OF ANTICIPATED SEVERE WEATHER HAS STARTED. SCATTERED

STRONG-TO-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EAST FROM

THE BLUE RIDGE AND MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE WASHINGTON/BALTIMORE

REGION THROUGH 6 PM. THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY ARE DAMAGING WIND

GUSTS...LARGE HAIL...ISOLATED TORNADOES...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.

THE SECOND ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING

THE EVENING FROM THE WEST AS A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPS OVER

CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON. THE

LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL STRENGTHEN WHILE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE

THE INTERSTATE 81 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 5 PM AND 7 PM...THEN ACROSS THE

INTESTATE 95 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 6 AND 8 PM...BEFORE FINALLY REACHING

THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AROUND 9 PM. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THIS ROUND

OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED

TORNADOES.

ALTHOUGH ALL OF THE REGION HAS THE POSSIBILITY OF EXPERIENCING

TORNADOES TODAY...THE MOST LIKELY TIME WILL BE FROM 6 TO 9 PM IN AN

AREA ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR FROM FREDERICKSBURG VIRGINIA

NORTH TO BALTIMORE MD THEN EAST TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. THIS AREA INCLUDES

THE MAJOR METROPOLITAN AREAS OF WASHINGTON DC AND BALTIMORE

MARYLAND.

WHILE THESE ARE THE BEST APPROXIMATIONS FOR TIMING AT THIS

MOMENT...RESIDENTS...BUSINESSES...AND VISITORS ACROSS THE REGION

SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SEVERE WEATHER ANYTIME THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH

MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AND HAVE A SAFETY PLAN IN PLACE.

KEEP IN MIND THAT EVEN THOUGH THE WEATHER MAY BE CALM AT TIMES

DURING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TORNADO WATCHES...CONDITIONS CAN

DETERIORATE RAPIDLY AND BECOME LIFE THREATENING.

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE REGION UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING.

PLEASE MONITOR THE WEATHER AND TUNE INTO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...ALONG

WITH YOUR FAVORITE RADIO...TELEVISION...OR INTERNET WEATHER

INFORMATION SOURCE FOR UPDATED INFORMATION.

$$

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Ouch

ALTHOUGH ALL OF THE REGION HAS THE POSSIBILITY OF EXPERIENCING

TORNADOES TODAY...THE MOST LIKELY TIME WILL BE FROM 6 TO 9 PM IN AN

AREA ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR FROM FREDERICKSBURG VIRGINIA

NORTH TO BALTIMORE MD THEN EAST TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. THIS AREA INCLUDES

THE MAJOR METROPOLITAN AREAS OF WASHINGTON DC AND BALTIMORE

MARYLAND.

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Ouch

ALTHOUGH ALL OF THE REGION HAS THE POSSIBILITY OF EXPERIENCING

TORNADOES TODAY...THE MOST LIKELY TIME WILL BE FROM 6 TO 9 PM IN AN

AREA ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR FROM FREDERICKSBURG VIRGINIA

NORTH TO BALTIMORE MD THEN EAST TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. THIS AREA INCLUDES

THE MAJOR METROPOLITAN AREAS OF WASHINGTON DC AND BALTIMORE

MARYLAND.

Yep. I'll tell my son, sorry, no baseball practice for you tonight...in the slight chance the coach doesn't call it off.

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18Z Update: Increasing threat for Tornadoes now indicated for Fort Eustis, Fort Belvoire, Norfolk, Quantico, Langley, Norfolk, Oceana, Newport, Andrews, and BWI. Now showing 56.5% for F1 Type Tornado, 45.7% for an F2, and 38.3% for an F3 possibility. In addition wind gusts across the entire area could be upwards of around 76mph, and Hail threat size has now increased to 2.33" potential. I have updated all my maps with new inputs

http://smartwxmodel.net/update.htm

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

216 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

SOUTHEASTERN FREDERICK COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND...

NORTHERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN CENTRAL MARYLAND...

SOUTHWESTERN CARROLL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND...

NORTHWESTERN HOWARD COUNTY IN CENTRAL MARYLAND...

* UNTIL 245 PM EDT

* AT 215 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 8 MILES

SOUTHWEST OF GREEN VALLEY...OR 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF GERMANTOWN...

MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

GREEN VALLEY...

MOUNT AIRY...

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