TUweathermanDD Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 I wonder if the DC/Balt one will be worded more strongly, the same or less. Not sure yod...i mean kenny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 DC Metro area not included in that watch Only 40/20 tornado probs on this one... I imagine they will be higher for areas east of the Blue Ridge, especially given discrete cells already initiating over the open warm sector. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 I wonder if the DC/Balt one will be worded more strongly, the same or less. Well those would be the three options...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 TOR WATCH 332 has MOD probs across the board (except for 1 one more strong tors is low) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 haha i've been so fixated on the RDU radar that I wasn't even paying attention to the CI in NOVA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 The MDT on SPC's homepage brought this setup to my attention for the first time about 20 minutes ago, so just now digging into it... but I'm very impressed with the RAP fcst hodos for areas between I-64 and the M/D line. Shear profiles are classic and Plains-like, rather than the veered-out crap often seen with east coast events. If these hodos were located over OK/KS with moderate to high instability, there'd be people flying in to chase from the coasts. Obviously lapse rates and thermodynamics in general are somewhat lackluster, but even so, some tornadoes appear likely -- with perhaps an enhanced sig tor threat in the CHO-DCA corridor where the best LL shear and instability coincide. That indeed stands out, as does the incredible low-level CAPE. If the discrete cells continue to mature, I would not hesitate having DC metro's watch be a PDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 It doesn't take a genius to figure out that DC/Baltimore area is in trouble. 0-3km CAPE is anywhere from 125-200J/kg and 0-1km SRH is 150m^2/s^2 and increasing, especially near the warm front. Yeah the shear profiles are really impressive in the lower levels. You got that moisture influx along with increasing CAPE coming right in from the SE too. Looks interesting in my eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 That indeed stands out, as does the incredible low-level CAPE. If the discrete cells continue to mature, I would not hesitate having DC metro's watch be a PDS. I think I'd like to see better lapse rates aloft, but low level CAPE is pretty good. Good CAPE along the WF and ahead of cold front/linear system moving in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 That indeed stands out, as does the incredible low-level CAPE. If the discrete cells continue to mature, I would not hesitate having DC metro's watch be a PDS. Low level lapse rates thru 700 hpa are very impressive...evidence of a leftover EML on the 12z GSO sounding advecting north. Can't wait to see the 18z special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 17Z Update: Currently tracking areas around Norfolk, Eustis, Langley, and Newport Areas with the highest instability. 47% chance of F1 type tornado and 38% chance of F2type tornado. In addition hail up to 2.01", winds gusts up to 74mph. Also areas around Danville, Richmond, Oceana, Belvoire, Charlottesville strong instability for severe weather across this region, with winds up to 70mph, and hail up to 1.88" across this area Data View: http://smartwxmodel.net/update.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Only 40/20 tornado probs on this one... I imagine they will be higher for areas east of the Blue Ridge, especially given discrete cells already initiating over the open warm sector. I could see something like 60/40 probs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 That indeed stands out, as does the incredible low-level CAPE. If the discrete cells continue to mature, I would not hesitate having DC metro's watch be a PDS. Hmm, maybe I am missing something but I don't know if I'd go that far. The CAPE/shear are pretty good but this looks short of a higher end setup capable of producing many strong/violent tornadoes imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 about 30 miles (liverpool, pa area). unsure if that is far enough north to be out of 'harms way' or not. Although in some ways I would just rather stay in Baltimore and watch the action roll in. Thats pretty far North of the border (PA/MD) but you are better seeing a storm down there then up in liverpool. Edit-Liverpool really isn't that far, i was meaning its far enough away from southern Pa your chances of seeing Tor wouldn't be great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 The new warned storm in Amherst County is already showing some slight rotation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 That indeed stands out, as does the incredible low-level CAPE. If the discrete cells continue to mature, I would not hesitate having DC metro's watch be a PDS. whoa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Storm in Amherst looks like it has some hail. 55+dbz showing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catoctin wx Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 whoa When Jim Cantore starts tweeting about our area, you know things can get bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Another nice line about enter Leesburg....rumbles of thunder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 When Jim Cantore starts tweeting about our area, you know things can get bad. Im assuming south and west of me - Cockeysville has been under clouds all day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Warning out for MOCO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Hmm, maybe I am missing something but I don't know if I'd go that far. The CAPE/shear are pretty good but this looks short of a higher end setup capable of producing many strong/violent tornadoes imo. With the really intense low-level CAPE over a warm frontal zone like that, and strong low-level SRH, the trend for developing discrete cells in the warm sector moving into that environment has to set off a lot of alarms. I think a PDS would be justified along and within about 50mi of the sfc warm frontal reflection, where I think the distinct possibility exists for a few strong tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 ...and new watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 This loop looks really cool: http://marylandwx.com/klwxstate.php You can clearly see the ll ese flow moving underneath the sw flow aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 1700 SPC meso 1500-2000 SBCAPE DC South.. MLCAPE at 1500 in N VA... LI's -5 to -6 in N VA... 35-45 kts effective bulk shear... 25-30 kts 1km bulk shear moving in from the west in Western VA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 The new warned storm in Amherst County is already showing some slight rotation. I feel like any discrete storms will spin up quick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Yes but when Jim Cantore travels to your area, you can be sure the storm will miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 And now I'm under a tornado watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Tornado Watch TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 333 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 150 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012 TORNADO WATCH 333 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS MDC003-005-009-011-013-015-017-019-025-027-029-031-033-035-037- 039-041-045-510-020100- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0333.120601T1750Z-120602T0100Z/ MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT CAROLINE CARROLL CECIL CHARLES DORCHESTER HARFORD HOWARD KENT MONTGOMERY PRINCE GEORGES QUEEN ANNE`S SOMERSET ST. MARYS TALBOT WICOMICO MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE BALTIMORE CITY $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 My only head scratcher is how the mid levels look. It's kind of a negative to get the nasty rotating updrafts, but the low levels have a lot going for it. Shear is usually a bit more important so we'll see. Much of the area is near 1500J CAPE which is probably sufficient for storms to rotate given shear profiles. 925 and 850 winds are SSE and S respectively from 25-40 kts which is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 HE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN AMHERST COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA * UNTIL 230 PM EDT. * AT 151 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR FORKS OF BUFFALO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... FORKS OF BUFFALO... AMHERST... CLIFFORD... LOWESVILLE... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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