chris87 Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 anyone know if LWX did (or plans) to do a special balloon launch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 The area between 85 and 95 in north central NC is where it's beginning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 anyone know if LWX did (or plans) to do a special balloon launch They should be doing it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Have some rain up here now. That cluster NW of Leesburg is what is coming in. Looks like some heavier downpours too. Satellite trends look like we'll see some sun once this rain moves through. 73F/67F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 anyone know if LWX did (or plans) to do a special balloon launch Just reading the chat (I can only see SPC to LWX) looks like 17-18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 They should be doing it yeah that's my thought...i think they did one on tuesday so today should be a no-brainer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 what the f? not only do we get a mod risk but the upped the tornado prob to 15%? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 what the f? not only do we get a mod risk but the upped the tornado prob to 15%? The mod risk is for the 15% I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 1, 2012 Author Share Posted June 1, 2012 what the f? not only do we get a mod risk but the upped the tornado prob to 15%? Can you imagine if this conference was going on during this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Pouring rain here now....feels tropical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 The MDT on SPC's homepage brought this setup to my attention for the first time about 20 minutes ago, so just now digging into it... but I'm very impressed with the RAP fcst hodos for areas between I-64 and the M/D line. Shear profiles are classic and Plains-like, rather than the veered-out crap often seen with east coast events. If these hodos were located over OK/KS with moderate to high instability, there'd be people flying in to chase from the coasts. Obviously lapse rates and thermodynamics in general are somewhat lackluster, but even so, some tornadoes appear likely -- with perhaps an enhanced sig tor threat in the CHO-DCA corridor where the best LL shear and instability coincide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 1, 2012 Author Share Posted June 1, 2012 The mod risk is for the 15% I believe. No hatching though - wonder if they will add an area of hatching at 2000z due to the wind threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 what the f? not only do we get a mod risk but the upped the tornado prob to 15%? The SLGT risk was at the high end (30 wind and 10 tor) already. 15 tor was mod so thats why the upgrade Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Tornado watch on the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Tornado watch #332 just issued until 9pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 And we begin 715 WWUS30 KWNS 011725 SAW2 SPC AWW 011725 WW 332 TORNADO MD NC PA VA WV 011730Z - 020100Z AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE.. 40NE AOO/ALTOONA PA/ - 40W GSO/GREENSBORO NC/ ..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM E/W /17SE PSB - 32W GSO/ HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS. MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22035. LAT...LON 40687662 36097956 36098172 40687891 THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS FOR WOU2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 A little more CAPE and it gets pretty interesting in the DC area. I like the low level profiles right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Can you imagine if this conference was going on during this? It must have been pretty intense! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 The mod risk is for the 15% I believe. i see that Can you imagine if this conference was going on during this? we would all be going crazy The SLGT risk was at the high end (30 wind and 10 tor) already. 15 tor was mod so thats why the upgrade i got it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Looks like things are starting to pop in North Carolina. "Dime size hail covering the ground" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 DC Metro area not included in that watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 DC Metro area not included in that watch We should get ours in a lil while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Rain coming straight down....I think flash flooding will be the bigger story tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 DC Metro area not included in that watch Yeah as stated in the md, another watch likely for the bal/dc corridor, I see some suspects for supercells down south heading up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Impressed already with the amount of discrete activity popping into the warm sector well ahead of the front. Bodes well for the SPC upgrade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 1, 2012 Author Share Posted June 1, 2012 Yeah as stated in the md, another watch likely for the bal/dc corridor, I see some suspects for supercells down south heading up I wonder if the DC/Balt one will be worded more strongly, the same or less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Got Haggis? Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 how far north of Harrisburg? about 30 miles (liverpool, pa area). unsure if that is far enough north to be out of 'harms way' or not. Although in some ways I would just rather stay in Baltimore and watch the action roll in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 It doesn't take a genius to figure out that DC/Baltimore area is in trouble. 0-3km CAPE is anywhere from 125-200J/kg and 0-1km SRH is 150m^2/s^2 and increasing, especially near the warm front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 The MDT on SPC's homepage brought this setup to my attention for the first time about 20 minutes ago, so just now digging into it... but I'm very impressed with the RAP fcst hodos for areas between I-64 and the M/D line. Shear profiles are classic and Plains-like, rather than the veered-out crap often seen with east coast events. If these hodos were located over OK/KS with moderate to high instability, there'd be people flying in to chase from the coasts. Obviously lapse rates and thermodynamics in general are somewhat lackluster, but even so, some tornadoes appear likely -- with perhaps an enhanced sig tor threat in the CHO-DCA corridor where the best LL shear and instability coincide. Yeah this. I had to do a double take when I was looking at forecast soundings for the afternoon. Look like high plains soundings in mid summer except with much lower LCLs. Have to thank the rapidly deepening cyclone across the lakes for that backed low level flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Impressed already with the amount of discrete activity popping into the warm sector well ahead of the front. Bodes well for the SPC upgrade. definitely...things looking good in NC...and they'll be moving into improving shear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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