NaoPos Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Well, I'll trust the SPC more than most of you's in here! Lol. Good luck to anyone chasing, stay safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Well, I'll trust the SPC more than most of you's in here! Lol. Good luck to anyone chasing, stay safe. not to demean anyone on the board...but that upgrade was signed off by some of SPCs best and most experienced forecasters...let's see how it plays out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 I pegged Richmond for tors in my forecast today. We will see what happens, but I am not surprised by SPC upgrade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 15 percent tornado probs. impressive. Things do look relatively impressive to me this midday with the warm front location and the destabilization that has taken place thus far. Obviously the caveats I posted earlier still exist but the threat is definitely there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Ok we are flying east now. See y'all later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 It's been a while since the NE has seen a moderate risk based purely off tornado probs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 I pegged Richmond for tors in my forecast today. We will see what happens, but I am not surprised by SPC upgrade. I agree that the best threat for discrete supercells is down by RIC but I think they're lacking enough low level shear for a widespread tornado threat. Tough call today all around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 First warning BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 1239 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... NORTH CENTRAL FRANKLIN COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA EASTERN VANCE COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WESTERN WARREN COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 I pegged Richmond for tors in my forecast today. We will see what happens, but I am not surprised by SPC upgrade. I was thinking between Richmond and Fredericksburg would be my target if I were chasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 not to demean anyone on the board...but that upgrade was signed off by some of SPCs best and most experienced forecasters...let's see how it plays out... I agree 100%. It wasn't a knock to anyone. A good amount of people were thinking downgrade. If the SPC upgraded, there's a damn good reason for it. Personally, I'd stay just between Baltimore and DC. The only prob is Friday traffic rush hour :-(. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 light rain out here just started. Any visible rotation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 I believe the SPC is specifically targeting areas just south of the warm front, where the best backing of the winds and destabilization is occurring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Ok we are flying east now. See y'all later. Need a ride from the airport? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 I pegged Richmond for tors in my forecast today. We will see what happens, but I am not surprised by SPC upgrade. PV, I just submitted follow req on Twitter, @kmdric. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1140 AM CDT FRI JUN 01 2012 ..SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF EXTREME SRN PA ERN WV PANHANDLE...NRN VA...PORTIONS OF MD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING INCLUDING THE D.C... THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF EXTREME SRN PA...ERN WV PANHANDLE...NRN VA...AND PORTIONS OF MD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING INCLUDING THE D.C. THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE WASHINGTON DC MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL MARYLAND EXTREME SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA NORTHERN VIRGINIA EXTREME EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE ELSEWHERE...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE SURROUNDING THE ENHANCED RISK AREA FROM CENTRAL PA SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS INTO NRN FL. STRONG UPPER TROUGH IS PROGRESSING ACROSS THE OH VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE UPPER OH VALLEY INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. FOCUSED AND STRONGLY FORCED COLD FRONT WILL INDUCE A LINE OF POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. STRONG SHEAR MAY INDUCE EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF SPAWNING A FEW TORNADOES WITH THIS FRONTAL CONVECTION. ADDITIONALLY...ISOLATED DISCRETE SUPERCELLS MAY ALSO DEVELOP WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS VA...NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN PA ALONG A WARM FRONT. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY. ..DARROW.. 06/01/2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 I agree that the best threat for discrete supercells is down by RIC but I think they're lacking enough low level shear for a widespread tornado threat. Tough call today all around. I was thinking between Richmond and Fredericksburg would be my target if I were chasing. No I agree...but I was going for better discrete potential. But you are right, better wind fields/instability is farther N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Oh boy, I'm skipping everything to chase today. Practice, Prom, Everything. It's GO TIME! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Oh boy, I'm skipping everything to chase today. Practice, Prom, Everything. It's GO TIME! Prom?! I hope you didn't have a date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 So the commute home tonight ought to be interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Can't argue with SPC for upgrading. The parameters are there for the threat of a strong tornado or two later this afternoon/evening. Backed sfc winds juxtaposed right in the heart of the theta-e axis with these amounts of 0-1km helicity values.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamrivers Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Shocked at the 15% probability here.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Prom?! I hope you didn't have a date. No but I have a group of friends including some girls that I was going to go with but I'm not now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Need a ride from the airport? I'm going to try to get the cabby to chase with me. Oh well.. Trough does fit the historical analogs for tornadoes. Maybe I am skeptical since not there. My EF5 will have to be captured by 30,000 other photogs without me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Got Haggis? Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Hmmm, I'm supposed to go camping tonight just north of Harrisburg, PA.....guess I better rethink that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 TOR Coming probably. That's it for me folks, stay safe and have fun! 000 ACUS11 KWNS 011704 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011703 NCZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-PAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-011830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1004 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1203 PM CDT FRI JUN 01 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...NC...VA...WV...MD...DC...PA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY VALID 011703Z - 011830Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN A VERY MOIST AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS FROM NC NWD ACROSS VA...SRN PA...WV PNHDL...AND MD/DC AREA. RECENT TRENDS SUGGEST THAT ISOLATED STORMS WILL FIRST POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER IN THE FORM OF HAIL/WIND OVER PARTS OF NERN NC AND SERN VA WHERE INSTABILITY IS GREATEST BUT SHEAR AND FORCING WILL REMAIN LIMITED FOR A TIME. ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY AS A FORCED SQUALL LINE DEVELOPS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP SHEAR AND TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AND ONE OR MORE TORNADO WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. DISCUSSION...STRONG FORCED ASCENT WITH A LARGE SCALE TROUGH WAS LIKELY RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION ALONG A COLD FRONT NOW SITUATED FROM ERN OH SWD ACROSS WV...EXTREME SWRN VA AND ERN TN. EXPECT THAT THIS CONVECTION WILL CROSS THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS. AS THIS FORCING BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH GREATER INSTABILITY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...MORE VIGOROUS STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE FORM OF BOWING/LEWPING SEGMENTS CAN BE EXPECTED. A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE MAY ALSO TAKE FORM WITH TIME COINCIDENT WITH AN INCREASE IN STORMS ALONG A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS SRN PA AND INTO THE DELMARVA REGION. IN ADDITION TO WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH STORMS ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT...AN ENHANCED BUT FOCUSED TORNADO THREAT MAY EVOLVE NEAR THE FRONTAL WAVE AND WARM FRONT. ONE TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FROM SRN PA ACROSS WRN VA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ANOTHER WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FROM THE ONGOING STORMS OVER NRN NC NWD ACROSS THE VA TIDEWATER AREA. STORMS IN THIS AREA ARE DEVELOPING WITH HEATING OF THE DAY AND PERHAPS THE LARGER SCALE ASCENT DEVELOPING EAST WITH THE TROUGH. WHILE INSTABILITY IS GREATER IN THIS CORRIDOR...DEEP SHEAR AND FORCING ARE LIKELY MORE MARGINAL TO SUPPORT A MORE WIDESPREAD IMMEDIATE THREAT OF SEVERE TSTMS WIND/TORNADOES. NONETHELESS...SHEAR WILL LIKELY INCREASE SUFFICIENTLY WITH TIME ACROSS THIS AREA TO WARRANT A TORNADO WATCH AND THIS WATCH WILL LIKELY BE COORDINATED SHORTLY. ..CARBIN.. 06/01/2012 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...MHX...CTP...LWX...RAH...RNK...PBZ... RLX... LAT...LON 38408025 40257988 40477934 40297812 39657645 39017601 37387611 36877609 35757572 35507692 35827806 36427895 36447972 36738043 37068060 37358072 38408025 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 1 PM DCA 80 BWI IAD 79 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Have some rain up here now. That cluster NW of Leesburg is what is coming in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Hmmm, I'm supposed to go camping tonight just north of Harrisburg, PA.....guess I better rethink that. how far north of Harrisburg? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Strong wording in the PSWO: ZCZC SPCPWOSPC ALL WOUS40 KWNS 011640 DCZ000-MDZ000-PAZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-020200- PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1140 AM CDT FRI JUN 01 2012 ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF EXTREME SRN PA...ERN WV PANHANDLE...NRN VA...PORTIONS OF MD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING INCLUDING THE D.C... THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF EXTREME SRN PA...ERN WV PANHANDLE...NRN VA...AND PORTIONS OF MD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING INCLUDING THE D.C. THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE WASHINGTON DC MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL MARYLAND EXTREME SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA NORTHERN VIRGINIA EXTREME EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE ELSEWHERE...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE SURROUNDING THE ENHANCED RISK AREA FROM CENTRAL PA SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS INTO NRN FL. STRONG UPPER TROUGH IS PROGRESSING ACROSS THE OH VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE UPPER OH VALLEY INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. FOCUSED AND STRONGLY FORCED COLD FRONT WILL INDUCE A LINE OF POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. STRONG SHEAR MAY INDUCE EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF SPAWNING A FEW TORNADOES WITH THIS FRONTAL CONVECTION. ADDITIONALLY...ISOLATED DISCRETE SUPERCELLS MAY ALSO DEVELOP WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS VA...NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN PA ALONG A WARM FRONT. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY. ..DARROW.. 06/01/2012 $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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