Ian Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 LOL...somebody mentions clouds as an inhibitor and now it's the only thing people are talking about... Just don't look at vis sat. You'll get storms either way. Hopefully SPC wises up and shrinks or drops the 10%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Just don't look at vis sat. You'll get storms either way. Hopefully SPC wises up and shrinks or drops the 10%. Exactly, that squall line is coming later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 if only.... http://mag.ncep.noaa...9_sim_radar.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 RAP insisting in Supercell composite of 12 at 2000z across LWX area... juxtaposed with good 0-1km shear and good effective shear and SRH 1600z SPC meso 1000-1500 MLCAPE DC South and 1500 SBCAPE DC south. 2000 near EZF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Not bad, pretty clear where the WF has set up, hasn't really moved much in the last few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Here in Westminster all the low level scud/stratus appears to be gone. There is a mid level altocumulus deck with filtered sunshine and southerly breeze. 72/63. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 as usual in these situations, the place to be.... http://www.history.org/webcams/magazine.cfm not that I'm complaining Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Huge piece of blue sky emerging here in southeast baltimore, coming west to east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Just don't look at vis sat. You'll get storms either way. Hopefully SPC wises up and shrinks or drops the 10%. Outside of showers moving into Loudon, vis has actually cleared out fairly well to the south east of the Blue Ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 We are getting upgraded: 000 ACUS11 KWNS 011630 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011629 MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-011730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1003 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1129 AM CDT FRI JUN 01 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN VA...A LARGE PART OF MD...THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...A SMALL PART OF THE ERN PANHANDLE OF WV...S-CNTRL PA CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE VALID 011629Z - 011730Z SUMMARY...A CATEGORICAL UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK WILL BE INCLUDED WITH THE 1630 UTC DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK ACROSS NERN VA...A LARGE PART OF MD...THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...A SMALL PART OF THE ERN PANHANDLE OF WV...AND S-CNTRL PA. DISCUSSION...LATEST OBSERVATIONAL AND MODEL OUTPUT WARRANT AN UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK FOR THE UPCOMING 1630 UTC OUTLOOK. PLEASE SEE FORTHCOMING DAY ONE OUTLOOK FOR ADDITIONAL METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. ..COHEN/BROYLES/CARBIN.. 06/01/2012 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX... LAT...LON 38157807 39137827 39687826 40007808 39937734 39207640 38547612 38157630 37667674 37697733 38157807 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Not bad, pretty clear where the WF has set up, hasn't really moved much in the last few hours. Beg to differ.. Here in SE pa, woke to to cool, dry,sunny conditions. Now getting up to dp of 60' cloud deck, passing shower.. It's moving... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 1, 2012 Author Share Posted June 1, 2012 Not bad, pretty clear where the WF has set up, hasn't really moved much in the last few hours. http://www.spc.noaa....f?1338568049079 Not bad for tor potential either - good to play with the warmfront Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Moderate Risk coming 125 ACUS11 KWNS 011630 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011629 MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-011730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1003 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1129 AM CDT FRI JUN 01 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN VA...A LARGE PART OF MD...THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...A SMALL PART OF THE ERN PANHANDLE OF WV...S-CNTRL PA CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE VALID 011629Z - 011730Z SUMMARY...A CATEGORICAL UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK WILL BE INCLUDED WITH THE 1630 UTC DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK ACROSS NERN VA...A LARGE PART OF MD...THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...A SMALL PART OF THE ERN PANHANDLE OF WV...AND S-CNTRL PA. DISCUSSION...LATEST OBSERVATIONAL AND MODEL OUTPUT WARRANT AN UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK FOR THE UPCOMING 1630 UTC OUTLOOK. PLEASE SEE FORTHCOMING DAY ONE OUTLOOK FOR ADDITIONAL METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. ..COHEN/BROYLES/CARBIN.. 06/01/2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 They're upgrading! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 now everyone back off the ledge... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 1, 2012 Author Share Posted June 1, 2012 They're upgrading! WEll that was unexpected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 The threat definitely looks ok for tornadoes but I still see a linear dmg wind threat for later. I like the area around Frederick Cty MD south into NoVa. 1k+ MU CAPE and and SB CAPE should be ample to kick up storms (and I'd imagine those numbers will increase if you guys can get some clearing later) and the shear and helicity values look decent. I'd go 2% tor but keep the other parameters the same..but WRT a tor threat I like Shenandoah Cty region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 ******** See you later kids, enjoy the storms and stay safe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Here's the new Day 1 text..looks like they are focusing on a relatively small area with the potential for scattered tornadoes. ..MID-ATLANTIC/UPPER OH VALLEY/CAROLINAS THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SWD ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. THIS FEATURE WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED TODAY MOVING EWD INTO THE CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS. A BAND OF WELL-FOCUSED LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH WHICH IS PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING SWD FROM ERN OH INTO FAR ERN KY. THIS LINE WILL MOVE EWD INTO A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS BUT WILL ALSO GAIN ACCESS TO INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THIS REASON...THE LINE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RAMP UP IN INTENSITY WITH A WIND DAMAGE THREAT GRADUALLY DEVELOPING. FURTHER TO THE EAST ACROSS ERN NC...ERN VA AND MD...MESOANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A CORRIDOR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WHERE MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED IN THE 1500 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE AND SFC DEWPOINTS ARE APPROACHING 70 F. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS THIS AFTERNOON WITH STORMS SPREADING NEWD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE 35 TO 40 KT RANGE WITH 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES AROUND 250 M2/S2 SUGGESTING THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT ROTATING STORMS AND TORNADOES. A TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS THE STORMS INTERACT WITH A WARM FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO BE FROM SCNTRL PA EXTENDING SSEWD ACROSS NRN VA AND MD AS THE LINE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS PA AND MD AS THE STRONGEST BAND OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT APPROACHES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A COUPLING OF THE LOW AND MID-LEVEL JETS IS ALSO FORECAST TO OCCUR ACROSS NRN VA...MD AND PA WHICH MAY ALSO HELP TO ENHANCE THE QLCS TORNADO THREAT. HAVE ADDED A MODERATE RISK IN THE WASHINGTON DC METRO...BALTIMORE AREAS WHERE THE TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE THE GREATEST AND WHERE AN ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. ANY ROTATING STORMS SHOULD ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND DAMAGE. AS THE STRONGER LARGE-SCALE ASCENT MOVES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC EARLY THIS EVENING...A WELL-ORGANIZED LINEAR MCS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME THE DOMINANT CONVECTIVE FEATURE WITH AN ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE THREAT PRESENT ACROSS A LARGE AREA OF THE MID-ATLANTIC. FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BE WEAKER THAN IN AREAS TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...MESOANALYSIS ALREADY SHOWS MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE AND MODEL FORECASTS DO DEVELOP A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE ERN CAROLINAS SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 30 TO 35 KT SUGGESTING THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS. AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BECOME STEEP THIS AFTERNOON...WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A LINE OF STORMS FORMING JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Isolated Strong Tornado? Oh boy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 1, 2012 Author Share Posted June 1, 2012 That is the SMALLEST mod risk I have ever seen lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 That's a bit of a shocker. I can see parts of VA and maybe touching SoMD but DC into "a large part of MD" is interesting. Can't wait to hear their reasoning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 It's a literal bullseye over the Beltway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 That is the SMALLEST mod risk I have ever seen lol And prob one of the most densely populated areas as well... Sent from my iPad HD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Are you effing kidding me... wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 That's a bit of a shocker. I can see parts of VA and maybe touching SoMD but DC into "a large part of MD" is interesting. Can't wait to hear their reasoning. they went with the region with the axis of greatest instability lying just to the south of the warm front....i kinda expected an upgrade but for either a larger portion of VA or on a line from DC to RIC (SE VA). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 The threat definitely looks pretty meh for tornadoes but I still see a linear dmg wind threat for later. I like the area around Frederick Cty MD south into NoVa. 1k+ MU CAPE and and SB CAPE should be ample to kick up storms (and I'd imagine those numbers will increase if you guys can get some clearing later) and the shear and helicity values look decent. I'd go 2% tor but keep the other parameters the same..but WRT a tor threat I like Shenandoah Cty region By 00z tonight the SREF mean has SB at or over 1000 j/kg near the new SPC moderate risk region. With 0-3km helicity over 250 m2/s2 and 0-6km bulk shear near 40 kt...you have more than adequate wind fields and low level potential for rotation. I think the moderate risk is definitely warranted -- will there be an outbreak of tornadoes, probably not, but it's definitely notable to see these numbers in this area. The skew-t's and hodos are pretty impressive as well...and the SPC SREF is pinning a small area in Maryland up towards the PA border for a low-scale significant tornado ingredient probability. This matches up pretty well with the aforementioned juxtaposition of instability and low level/effective shear numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.