Kmlwx Posted May 30, 2012 Author Share Posted May 30, 2012 Went to Eastern to try to find the June 4th, 2008 thread, but completely failed. I have a link on my desktop that I can post later (unless somebody beats me to it). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 Went to Eastern to try to find the June 4th, 2008 thread, but completely failed. I linked it above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 Here is the thread from eastern http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/165777-1-year-ago-june-4-2008-historic-mid-atlantic-severe-weather-outbreak/page__k__6508f059784adbbee0d63c050bc268fb__settingNewSkin__3 For those who missed it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 Went to Eastern to try to find the June 4th, 2008 thread, but completely failed. Its linked above -- thanks to mapgirl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 I love that resource on the SPC page. H5 looks super different than the setup for this Friday (not saying you were implying it was similar). Hopefully a red tagger can chime in and make some comments at some point on the overall setup. Not at all. I was just linking it as a compliment to the discussion about the June 2008 incident. Here is the thread from eastern http://www.easternus...ttingNewSkin__3 +1 Internets to teh mapgirl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 30, 2012 Author Share Posted May 30, 2012 For those who missed it That's sad...I actually remember seeing that earlier. Guess I'm more tired than I thought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 30, 2012 Author Share Posted May 30, 2012 Afternoon discussion is VERY strongly worded - .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FRIDAY WITH HEAVY...INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES. THURSDAY NIGHT...A WARM FRONT /ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LIFTING UP THE OHIO VALLEY/ WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL MID ATLANTIC THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE...THOUGH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS MAY NOT SHIFT SOUTHERLY UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL BE ADVANCING EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW...SO LOW CHANCE POPS WERE ADDED FOR WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE REAL ACTION WILL BE ON FRIDAY. MIN TEMPS LOW 60S I-95 AND EAST...MID TO UPR 50S WEST. FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING...ACTIVE WEATHER DAY AS A COLD FRONT FROM A LOW LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. 12Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT OF TIMING THE FRONT ACROSS THE LWX CWA FROM MIDDAY OUT WEST TO THE EVENING IN THE EAST. THIS IS FAVORABLE TIMING DIURNALLY SO INSTABILITY SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED. A PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE WILL BE STREAMING IN AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BRINGING PWATS INTO THE 1.6 TO 1.8 RANGE...SO EXPECT HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS AND POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING. BULK SHEAR OF 35 KT MEETS THE MINIMUM REQUIREMENT FOR SUPERCELLS BUT IS NOT SPECTACULAR. HOWEVER...THE JET APPROACHES IN THE EVENING WITH LWX IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION...SO THE SUPERCELL THREAT LOOKS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENT. THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR /IN BOTH 12Z NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS/ IS FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES WITH 25 TO 30 KT OF SFC TO 0.5KM SHEAR. THEREFORE THE WORDING IN THE HWO WILL BE STRENGTHENED TO INCLUDE MENTION OF FLASH FLOODING...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES RETURN BELOW NORMAL WITH MID 70S GENERALLY FOR SATURDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 I think that is one of the most strongly worded AFD's I have read from LWX in a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 Afternoon discussion is VERY strongly worded - Without Ion around to give us a meh, are we allowed to get excited yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 Afternoon discussion is VERY strongly worded - Impressive for two days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 30, 2012 Author Share Posted May 30, 2012 Impressive for two days out. The HWO should read: ESKIMO JOE SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR MASSIVE WORK DEMANDS AT HIS JOB. STAY VIGILANT! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 I think that is one of the most strongly worded AFD's I have read from LWX in a while Your weenie is showing.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 Your weenie is showing.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 The HWO should read: ESKIMO JOE SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR MASSIVE WORK DEMANDS AT HIS JOB. STAY VIGILANT! Personally I hope it falls completely apart. I don't mind the work demands, but I haven't been out to Pittsbugh to see my gf in two weeks and I'll catch hell if I don't go out Friday night. Which, of course, guarantees the exact opposite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 For those of you interested in what happened on June 4th - 5th, 2008, here is the analysis page from SPC: http://www.spc.noaa....p?date=20080604 It's interesting to note that exactly 52 weeks after the violent weather of Wednesday, June 4, 2008, there was a severe thunderstorm the evening of Wednesday June 3, 2009, which dropped 2.69 inches of precipitation at Dulles Airport. I remember both of these events well: During the first, I got temporarily stranded at the East Falls Church Metro station on my way home from work about 5 P.M., due to downed power lines outside of East Falls Church. I took a local bus to the West Falls Church Metro station, then caught a commuter bus home to Herndon, arriving about an hour later than normal, only to find the power out. The power wasn't restored until about 2:30 A.M. on June 5th. During the June 3, 2009 storm, I had just arrived at Dulles on a flight from Atlanta about 8 P.M., barely ahead of the storm -- in fact, my flight was one of the last allowed to land. I waited in the covered parking lot for the storm to die down, but as I was finally pulling out of the lot, the storm suddenly intensified. My drive home was an adventure, as I could barely see the road, but there was almost no traffic, and so I arrived without incident. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 Your weenie is showing.... Strong and and proud my good sir but really, when is the last time you have seen LWX have that strong of a wording for a potential severe weather event 2 days out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 For those who missed it d'oh Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 Personally I hope it falls completely apart. I don't mind the work demands, but I haven't been out to Pittsbugh to see my gf in two weeks and I'll catch hell if I don't go out Friday night. Which, of course, guarantees the exact opposite. She will understand! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 I'm giving this threat a solid chance just because Mark didn't start the thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThreeRedheads Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 Strong and and proud my good sir but really, when is the last time you have seen LWX have that strong of a wording for a potential severe weather event 2 days out? Getting excited for this event! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 Anyone else thinking this is going to be the real deal on Friday? I'm not thinking widespread or anything like that but I have a hunch some nasty cells are going to rampage on a select few. I'm never confident in tornados in these parts unless a tropical system is somehow involved but rotation within the cells seems likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 30, 2012 Author Share Posted May 30, 2012 Anyone else thinking this is going to be the real deal on Friday? I'm not thinking widespread or anything like that but I have a hunch some nasty cells are going to rampage on a select few. I'm never confident in tornados in these parts unless a tropical system is somehow involved but rotation within the cells seems likely. I think a squall line or broken line segments (maybe a QLCS setup) is more likely than a bunch of discrete cells. Still, I'd say spinups are definitely possible in any storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 30, 2012 Author Share Posted May 30, 2012 I'm giving this threat a solid chance just because Mark didn't start the thread. Don't. My track record with making threads and subsequent success vs fail ratio is horrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 31, 2012 Author Share Posted May 31, 2012 I know folks here trash him a lot - Our pal over at Wxrisk is really honking on his Facebook page about this threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 I know folks here trash him a lot - Our pal over at Wxrisk is really honking on his Facebook page about this threat. I saw that, will be interesting to see what tomorrow's run show. Post pics and soundings please! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 31, 2012 Author Share Posted May 31, 2012 I saw that, will be interesting to see what tomorrow's run show. Post pics and soundings please! I will do that on my frequent breaks at work (shhh don't tell my boss lol). Although I'm sure Yoda will beat me to the punch 90 percent of the time. Katie has been particularly on top of updates as well! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 31, 2012 Author Share Posted May 31, 2012 By the way - anybody with AllisonHouse not receiving the storm track data? I have been missing just that data (have lightning etc and everything else) for a few days maybe a week or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 I know folks here trash him a lot - Our pal over at Wxrisk is really honking on his Facebook page about this threat. Sounds like he scared half of his fans more than anything. Reading the comments, some people were thinking he was comparing this to the April 27th event from last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 31, 2012 Author Share Posted May 31, 2012 Sounds like he scared half of his fans more than anything. Reading the comments, some people were thinking he was comparing this to the April 27th event from last year. He certainly has an interesting delivery style - but that has always been one of his trademarks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Does anybody have an install file for the old GR Level III program? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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