MN Transplant Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 More sun than at any point this morning. 77.8 and rising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 More sun than at any point this morning. 77.8 and rising. Vis sat isn't as bad as I thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 I think this might be a big bust if the clouds don't start lifting. It's clouded up here again. IDK- everything is going as planned. We don't really need the sun like we do without the help of a front. There's going to be plenty to keep and eye on. There will be some solid severe stuff this afternoon. How widespread is a bit of a wildcard. I'm confident in seeing some exciting weather in these parts. I haven't paid much attention to the setup further south where you are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Very excited for brief heavy rain and 30mph wind gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 SE VA around the tapp and rappa (no need to spell them out) rivers already in the low 80s with dews getting into the low 70s. Bright, but still a thin layer of overcast near Andrews. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Vis sat isn't as bad as I thought. Deck is pretty thin in Arlington right now. Sun is burning through nicely and it's gotton pretty warm after a relatively cool start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Very excited for brief heavy rain and 30mph wind gusts. booooooo! You're too well liked around here to be banned but still...... boooooo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 More sun than at any point this morning. 77.8 and rising. Vis sat isn't as bad as I thought. I have been watching this feature on the SPC's meso analysis page all morning. At 700mb, there is a sure of higher dewpoints which I gather is the warm front. This feature is evident on the graphic below and highlighted by the red line. Immediately following this feature is a noteworthy decreased in dewpoint / moisture and seems to coincide with the breaks in the clouds over the Potomac Valley / I-81 corridor. Will be interesting to see if the combination of the strong June sun and comparatively lower moisture will continue to produce breaks in the cloud deck. I'm not trying to say this is a game changer or anything of the like, just something I found worth mentioning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Very excited for brief heavy rain and 30mph wind gusts. Ah, the ole reverse jinx... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 The prefrontal initiation for any possible supercell looks to be south today across VA-NC. Agreed. Best chance for actually seeing a tornado (via the discrete cells rather than the QLCS) will probably be in southern VA/northern NC, which is where I would be heading if I was back home. I do not recommend trying to get a tornado from a QLCS, especially when a better target presents itself. I'm not saying that the DC/MD region won't get tornadoes, but there's probably a better chance of chasers actually seeing one further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Showers popping everywhere.. ugh clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 actually feels cool here in Frederick maybe cause of the wind. Slowly climbing...72F/66F with sun wanting to find a way through the clouds. That cluster of clouds from Roanoke to Winchester just doesn't want to break up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 1, 2012 Author Share Posted June 1, 2012 Guessing no mod risk - we would have seen a mesoscale disco I feel like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Guessing no mod risk - we would have seen a mesoscale disco I feel like Agreed...no way does this warrant a moderate risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 booooooo! You're too well liked around here to be banned but still...... boooooo! Nice of you to think so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 1, 2012 Author Share Posted June 1, 2012 Agreed...no way does this warrant a moderate risk. If things really improve they will wait until 2000z outlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 1, 2012 Author Share Posted June 1, 2012 Agreed...no way does this warrant a moderate risk. OTOH - if confidence becomes high in a widespread QLCS damaging wind type thing, it could be hoisted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 That batch coming up from the SW looks to be a rainer here in about an hour or so....is that round 1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamrivers Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Not sure how anything outrageously severe can happen...it's 71 and I haven't seen a single break of sunshine in Winchester. It feels like a spring/fall day...nothing else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 wash your mouth out with soap! Not sure how anything outrageously severe can happen...it's 71 and I haven't seen a single break of sunshine in Winchester. It feels like a spring/fall day...nothing else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Not sure how anything outrageously severe can happen...it's 71 and I haven't seen a single break of sunshine in Winchester. It feels like a spring/fall day...nothing else. ESE surface flow is showing it's effect in your parts just like around the Frederick MD area. Enough topographical influence to keep a thicker deck around. Wouldn't worry though. Deck is prob quite low and thin. There should be plenty of dynamics and lift to work with as things get going later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Not expecting much till the line gets here later. No more breaks in cloud cover look likely today. And it is only 71 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 ESE surface flow is showing it's effect in your parts just like around the Frederick MD area. Enough topographical influence to keep a thicker deck around. Wouldn't worry though. Deck is prob quite low and thin. There should be plenty of dynamics and lift to work with as things get going later. As LWXs discussion said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Noobs need to relax. Take a nap and wake up around rush hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Bust 79/69. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 LOL...somebody mentions clouds as an inhibitor and now it's the only thing people are talking about... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Bust 79/69. Not helpful! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 75/66 in Columbia. Just had a fire drill and sure feels like the warm front has made it here. Sun through thin clouds, breezy, and getting muggy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Bust 79/69. enabler. instigator. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 if only.... http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/hrw-nmm/12/hrw-nmm_eus_009_sim_radar.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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