OSUmetstud Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 It looks like any tornado threat would maximized in the BWI area around 00z or possibly just after. 0-2 helicity increases to 200 m2/s2 and cape increases to near 1500 j/kg in a very moist profile. However, we just have to see how linear the convection is at that time. Line HM mentioned, maybe some embedded supercells, or maybe just a spin up north of a bow echo? I don't think the instability/shear profiles are ideal for any tornadoes in that afternoon with the more scattered activity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 I wish everyone lots of luck and never want to miss storms. But we'll prob be under supercells on the caprock later. Luck to me would be some good rains without the damage, but I don't think that's a popular viewpoint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Then you'll have better chasing chances than here. Maybe.. Tor risk is pretty low here today probably. Hoping for some good structure. Moisture is a bit lacking. But we've already seen more than could have been realistically hoped for probably. I know Jason and Mark wish they had something like this to chase back home more often. I'm still unconvinced it's worth it out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Looks like LWX thinks even with minimal instability, strong/severe thunderstorms are still a go with the QLCS... As I think HM as said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Looks like LWX thinks even with minimal instability, strong/severe thunderstorms are still a go with the QLCS... As I think HM as said. That was alwas the main threat. Getting isolated supercells will be somewhat tough. A QLCS near sunset will be a fun chase tho! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Looks like LWX thinks even with minimal instability, strong/severe thunderstorms are still a go with the QLCS... As I think HM as said. LOL it is like I wrote that discussion but yeah I agree with what they typed up. The QLCS-induced spin-ups / low-topped supercells will maximize the tornado potential in the DC-PHL corridor. Unfortunately, that means later timing with thunderstorms. If severe weather should arrive at night, you still will get quite a sight with a setup like this. You will have no problem seeing the low and turbulent cloud structures moving swiftly overhead. But, it still sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Still a ways to go with this. Clouds always seem to link up the plans, tho. Love seeing Wes chip in with some thoughts. Sun punching through every few min here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 That was alwas the main threat. Getting isolated supercells will be somewhat tough. A QLCS near sunset will be a fun chase tho! A sunset arrival / passage seems more likely in the DC area so good luck for anyone observing in the area. Could be some nice photos! The prefrontal initiation for any possible supercell looks to be south today across VA-NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 meh, at least a QLCS means more people get in on the fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 That was alwas the main threat. Getting isolated supercells will be somewhat tough. A QLCS near sunset will be a fun chase tho! No chasing here, gonna find a good spot and just watch it come in and see what pictures I can get. We have the cameras charging, both the point and shoot and the DSLR LOL it is like I wrote that discussion but yeah I agree with what they typed up. The QLCS-induced spin-ups / low-topped supercells will maximize the tornado potential in the DC-PHL corridor. Unfortunately, that means later timing with thunderstorms. If severe weather should arrive at night, you still will get quite a sight with a setup like this. You will have no problem seeing the low and turbulent cloud structures moving swiftly overhead. But, it still sucks. I'm ok with nighttime storms, just gotta hope for good CG lightning for pics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 11am temps BWI: 74/64 Inner harbor: 76/63 Phoenix (station closest to my house): 69/64 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fodie77 Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Not that anyone cares given the 90% NOVA/DC/Balt contingent in this thread, but how are things looking for RIC in this deal? Thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 No chasing here, gonna find a good spot and just watch it come in and see what pictures I can get. We have the cameras charging, both the point and shoot and the DSLR I'm ok with nighttime storms, just gotta hope for good CG lightning for pics Same here. The cameras are charged and cards cleaned off. What breaks we did have in the clouds are gone now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 73/70 at JYO...soupy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 No chasing here, gonna find a good spot and just watch it come in and see what pictures I can get. We have the cameras charging, both the point and shoot and the DSLR I'm ok with nighttime storms, just gotta hope for good CG lightning for pics Hope u get something good! Don't stand under graduation tents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Hope u get something good! Don't stand under graduation tents. Will do! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 I might chase this afternoon if the storms are close by... as in a 50-70 mile radius,,, otherwise I will likely take pics and watch from the front of my house Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Hope u get something good! Don't stand under graduation tents. Interesting...I pitched a tent just this morning, but nothing good came of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 I think this might be a big bust if the clouds don't start lifting. It's clouded up here again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Oh, just great! 000 NOUS61 KRNK 011419 FTMFCX Message Date: Jun 01 2012 14:19:28 KFCX RADAR IS CURRENTLY DOWN. ET ON SITE INVESTIGATING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 I think this might be a big bust if the clouds don't start lifting. It's clouded up here again. Great insight, Brick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 So....just get your doppler on wheels out of the garage. Seems like an easy enough fix to me. Duh! Oh, just great! 000 NOUS61 KRNK 011419 FTMFCX Message Date: Jun 01 2012 14:19:28 KFCX RADAR IS CURRENTLY DOWN. ET ON SITE INVESTIGATING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 I think this might be a big bust if the clouds don't start lifting. It's clouded up here again. Not sure what your local forecast office is saying, but ours up here said even with the clouds and limited instability, strong and severe storms are still possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 If you believe the 1500Z SPC meso... SBCAPE has reached 1000 DC South... 1500 EZF south. Effective Bulk Shear 35 kts. MLCAPE 1000 just south of DC. Supercell composite of 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Public service announcement: Make sure you all have your trash can lids and grill covers on tight. Keep an eye to the sky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Instability was forecast with highs in the lower 80s. DCA is sitting at 78 at 11am and DP's are close to 70. LL lapse rates may not reach superadiabatic but I'm fairly confident we'll get enough instability to at least put on a show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 15Z Update: Just added Patuxent River, Richmond, Newport with Ft. Eustis within the higher thresholds of severe weather. Output showing around 34.8% chance of weak tornado in an around these areas. Primary threats are still winds up to 65mph, Hail size up to 1.97" (increased from 12Z output). Data View: http://smartwxmodel.net/update.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 I think this might be a big bust if the clouds don't start lifting. It's clouded up here again. Go move the vclouds then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Instability was forecast with highs in the lower 80s. DCA is sitting at 78 at 11am and DP's are close to 70. LL lapse rates may not reach superadiabatic but I'm fairly confident we'll get enough instability to at least put on a show. Agree, and if you put belief in the SPC analysis instability has responded south of the WF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Instability was forecast with highs in the lower 80s. DCA is sitting at 78 at 11am and DP's are close to 70. LL lapse rates may not reach superadiabatic but I'm fairly confident we'll get enough instability to at least put on a show. We should reach low 80s... there is enough sun IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.