H2O Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Looking at satellite there certainly are clouds around but appears to have a good amount of breaks and hopefully the sun can help to burn some more off as well. This seems standard around here and there should be some clearing later on. The LWX disco made mention of it as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 1, 2012 Author Share Posted June 1, 2012 This seems standard around here and there should be some clearing later on. The LWX disco made mention of it as well. HRRR also sees clearing after 15z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Should have told me! I would have went! You gonna be on radar scope chasers location? I figured you were working today, lol. We're not leaving until 12-1ish, if you wanna go, can always come scoop ya up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 This seems standard around here and there should be some clearing later on. The LWX disco made mention of it as well. Love it Well time to hit the road. Hoping to get there sometime between 1-2 PM depending on traffic around the NYC area and such. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Happy Met Summer everyone!!!! Lets hope the weather gods are on our side today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 DP 69 at DCA, 59 at Inner Harbor if you want an idea where the warm front is stretched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Warm front is through and definitely clearing south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 WTOP mobile headline: "Rain, Tornadoes during Friday Commute." We are all going to die Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 WTOP mobile headline: "Rain, Tornadoes during Friday Commute." We are all going to die Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 We are all going to die We get it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 1, 2012 Author Share Posted June 1, 2012 We are all going to die noob double post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Not that 20 miles is a big deal in the grand scheme of things, but if ya'll aren't going to chase south of Baltimore/DC and are planning on meeting up in Cville, you might as well stay a bit further north and meet up in Shrewsbury......it's right off 83, keeps you away from heavy traffic and you can play in either northern MD or extreme southern PA depending on how things go. JMO, of course. and like I said, that's if you've completely ruled out busting south of Bmore/DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 We are all going to die Telling us twice doesn't make us feel any better about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 I figured you were working today, lol. We're not leaving until 12-1ish, if you wanna go, can always come scoop ya up. I am, but a chase day is always more important lol.. I just got in at 7. Good luck brother! You guys gonna be checking back in here? We'll post what see. I know on the road is a little slower getting info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 I am, but a chase day is always more important lol.. I just got in at 7. Good luck brother! You guys gonna be checking back in here? We'll post what see. I know on the road is a little slower getting info. Ya I'll be posting in both forums, and I'll be on SN all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Certainly seems consistent that they'll be two rounds: perhaps more discrete cell structure 12-2PM timeframe and then again during rushhour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Not that 20 miles is a big deal in the grand scheme of things, but if ya'll aren't going to chase south of Baltimore/DC and are planning on meeting up in Cville, you might as well stay a bit further north and meet up in Shrewsbury......it's right off 83, keeps you away from heavy traffic and you can play in either northern MD or extreme southern PA depending on how things go. JMO, of course. and like I said, that's if you've completely ruled out busting south of Bmore/DC. Everything is in play at this point, only thing is, I want to stay within 4-5 hours of home as I have to be back into work at 3am in Jersey. That's why I figured close to 83, can get up into PA easily if needed, and if we need to go south of BWI, just get back on the loop and bust south. If anybody has a better idea of where a good spot to sit would be, lemme know, and once we meet up, we'll head there. I'm not horribly familiar with the area, so every little bit helps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Everything is in play at this point, only thing is, I want to stay within 4-5 hours of home as I have to be back into work at 3am in Jersey. That's why I figured close to 83, can get up into PA easily if needed, and if we need to go south of BWI, just get back on the loop and bust south. If anybody has a better idea of where a good spot to sit would be, lemme know, and once we meet up, we'll head there. I'm not horribly familiar with the area, so every little bit helps. There is a Walmart in Shrewsberry, sits up on top of a hill right at I-83, easy on and off. and you'll be able to see for miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Shear is there, but the instability is in question. If you guys can clear up and get some weenie 1500J or greater CAPE..could be interesting. If not, probably some segments with strong winds etc. Shear is important though...not just for TORs. It's always good to have that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 noob double post Crappy cell phone. We need to build up hype anyways and #tormageddon hasn't taken off very well yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 The beauty about today is going to be the relatively respectable low level hodographs. Some weaknesses in the mid level flow are probably going to dampen the threat for longer lived strong supercells...but the low LCLs and low level helicity combo can still pay off. Junkvection and high clouds are undoubtedly going to limit MLCAPE today...except maybe along the VA coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Woke to clouds here this morning, and they look to be pretty set in for the moment. Going off my new weather station just set up I have: Temp 65 deg Humidity 78% Dew 58 Bar 29.85 and still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Pushed out an analysis for the VA-MD area . Currently tracking Fort Eustis Area with the strongest instability values overall. Expecting winds up to 63 mph, hail potential of 1.3" Tornado threat is around 31% for F1 type tornado possibility. Also areas around Belvoir, BWI, Langley with potential of severe weather. Details viewed http://smartwxmodel.net/update.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anti1clint Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Peaks of sun beginning here at BWI.....Best weather day of the year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Just taking a closer look at the threat this morning. It seems to me there are a couple things working against a widespread tornado outbreak including only modest/moderate instability (MLCAPE 1000-1500 j/kg) thanks to modest mid level lapse rates and lots of crap cloud cover out there this morning. Hodographs do look impressive... they could be a bit longer... but they certainly are impressive for the mid atlantic. I do think the forcing will be quite strong this afternoon which would likely quickly shift the storm mode to a squall line/clusters rather than discrete supercells. If there is more clearing than forecast and we can bump up the instability and be able to maintain several discrete supercells than watch out. I do think the primary threat, however, is a pretty nasty wind event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 OT, but what is with the new music on The Weather Channel's Local on the 8's? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 1, 2012 Author Share Posted June 1, 2012 OT, but what is with the new music on The Weather Channel's Local on the 8's? http://www.weather.com/tv/music/ Might find what you are looking for there but it only goes thru Feb 2012 I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Just taking a closer look at the threat this morning. It seems to me there are a couple things working against a widespread tornado outbreak including only modest/moderate instability (MLCAPE 1000-1500 j/kg) thanks to modest mid level lapse rates and lots of crap cloud cover out there this morning. Hodographs do look impressive... they could be a bit longer... but they certainly are impressive for the mid atlantic. I do think the forcing will be quite strong this afternoon which would likely quickly shift the storm mode to a squall line/clusters rather than discrete supercells. If there is more clearing than forecast and we can bump up the instability and be able to maintain several discrete supercells than watch out. I do think the primary threat, however, is a pretty nasty wind event Yeah I am pretty much in agreement. Hodos definitely could be longer, and CAPE could be higher. Linear forcing along the surging front doesn't seem the place to be either. One thing to watch for is more discrete activity farther E, especially with such low LCLs and in a higher CAPE enviro. Some guidance hinting that weaker/less defined low level forcing will result in a more discrete mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Great discussion here. I'm in NC, but the SE regional forum is dead this morning. You'd think there would be more people discussing it there since the threat is big in NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Yeah I am pretty much in agreement. Hodos definitely could be longer, and CAPE could be higher. Linear forcing along the surging front doesn't seem the place to be either. One thing to watch for is more discrete activity farther E, especially with such low LCLs and in a higher CAPE enviro. Some guidance hinting that weaker/less defined low level forcing will result in a more discrete mode. Yeah I think after we force a pretty solid squall line coming off the mountains we'll have to watch eastern areas. Certainly will be an interesting day to watch all this unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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